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Rendj, I believe they cannot run the plant without these changes. The control devices in question I believe to be one for the screening, one for the drying, and one for the cooling.
I looked into NCDEQ and found the statuses of the permits. AEG have been asked twice for additional info and both times have responded quickly.
Indeed thet have a longer horizon than the average poster, agreed. And as do I which is why I'm here really. As I've said multiple times I will hold until 2070 if I have to, still young with plenty of time.
It has always been my thought that we would never be bought out for less than 3.522p per share. At that price do you think the major institutions would take it or do you think higher?
Furthermore a buyout is kinda what I don't want. Yeah it would make me a quick buck but that's it. When AEG have coalswitch orders coming in and in, and have licensing agreements. It's not hard to model a 10 year bull run. At the moment I only model for 2026 given that they are producing an eventual 400,000 tonnes per year as per company objectives. For me it gets blurry after then. But I agree that if it actually goes well, which at the moment isn't a guarantee, 3.522p per share would be a bad price to be bought out at.
The technology in the right hands would lead to massive, massive growth.
Unfortunately it's not in the right hands..
You know me, I sit on the fence with Rowan until the June deadline when I will ultimately make my decision about him. This is his last chance and from what I'm seeing. We're about 70% likely to miss the deadline..
I'm ready to be disappointed. But I am also ready to hold until 2070 if needs be...
I bought here, obviously not for the lumber, but for coalswitch and the IP
Here's a video from 3rd November 2016 which just demonstrates past incompetence https://youtu.be/93hyDAoh3OQ
I was hoping that with the pacificorp order AEG had turned a corner... I bought for the amazing promise of coalswitch... I am 70% certain now that AEG is back at step 1.
Long term... At least we have 7M in the bank... At least we have the reference plant mostly up and running. If not soon then I'd hope by end of 2021.
Long term we hope that the reference plant can provide licensees with confidence in the product and can give us more orders... But for now we're back at step 1
I trust PDI with this.. and indeed I agree with you about Rowan.
Overall, if endgame is licensing+in-house production with a main focus in licensing as it's the rapid-growth way of doing things, then they need to guard the IP like Coca-Cola guard their formula.
Also Stifler I thought Rowan held 29,399,800 2.0125p calls and an equal amount of 3.522p. Not 3.2p.
Not being pedantic, just that I want to correct my own docs if I'm wrong! Thanks,
I believe that as long as the plants get their carbon footprint below X then they will achieve the goal.
It is much cheaper for plants to burn coalswitch over other biomass because the plants don't need expensive conversions. But also remember that in the long game they are meant to be targeting much more than the US. The TAM is huge, but at the moment we can't tap into any of it..
In my opinion the IP itself is worth more than the market cap of AEG with how promising it is... We just can't make use of it :/
Not sure they can commission without the devices if I'm honest as from my interpretation this would breach the tpy of carbon? I assume they wil one allowed to test though? That's my interpretation anyways... So yes I think it's a matter of waiting for the application go through which in my opinion we need to start production by next week. The week after that will be too much a rush
Thanks for this. I have tried, and failed to find this before so this is amazing.
Also as it says the devices have already been constructed a site. It's just a question of applying them no? So basically as soon as they get the green light we are up and going I think?
Nothing. But from the RNS I believe we're in limbo. I am of the belief we need to have coalswitch coming from the plant by the end of next week. If we miss that and get the week after its possible at a push. But I til the new control devices and stuff get approved I think we cant do anything but wait. The company isn't going to update us on literally no progress as we twiddle put thumbs and wait.
Yeah good luck..
At the moment I feel more confident my star sign will tell me if we will make the order than Rowan will.
If we make the order yeah 2p is viable (I reckon 1.5p). If we miss it 0.3p is possible.. I think it's 50/50 atm
Good luck
With biden and the pressure to decarbonise, why would pacificorp not want to reschedule?
Unless maybe the they don't want to deal with AEG after delays?
I don't know what to think but surely the date can't be this fixed... I know it's AEGs fault for not hitting the deadline but still...
Seattle, as stated in my post I think it would have been more reassuring if the RNS stated how the deadline would be met.
They could have explained if testing can still be done without the new control devices? Is the rest of the plant having progress been made while this hiccup gets ironed out? How long do they think it will take them to produce the 900 tonnes? Etc etc.
If they had stated them, I believe confidence in the board wouldn't be as low.
I have also bought some more shares today. And yes that quote is all well and good for things such as overall market crashes or temporary dips. However not when people are scared about the long term future here. Not debating it.. just saying as yes I have also bought more..
The reason I bought more is not because it's cheap right now and I'm very much here for the long run. And as you stated yes I know US companies did this. However I think the board said June as pacificorp were most likely very keen on the June date. Just my guess.
The reasons they changed the component baffle me, unless the previous one just wasn't working I don't really know..
I am of the belief that it can be tested? I did some light reading and I don't want to mislead anyone so take it with a large pinch of salt.. but I believe the licenses govern the amount of carbon emission per year that can be emitted. And testing should not impact this much? As I said I'm not sure. But it shows the failure of community that we, the shareholders, are having to do this for ourselves and try and understand. They stated in their RNS they think they will still make the order. But that's not enough! Confidence is blown. We need to be told not if.. but how they will meet that deadline, and as you said. Detail how long it will take make the pellets. Detail when the plant should be done.. etc.
This should have all been communicated. Not left for us to guess the maths ourselves and guess that it will take 3 weeks manufacture so we have 2 weeks finish the plant. We are guessing this! Why?? The board need to communicate this!
Also I don't think it's impossible make an investment decision as yes. It's a bit of a gamble but when you with up risk Vs reward.. at these prices for me it's in the court of it still being a buy despite it all. But maybe I'm foolish enough to believe when the RNS says they will still make the date as at the moment I'm weighing it as 50/50
The rewarding of options was supposed to be to align their interests with that of the share holders. As I think we all fear further dilution and stuff..
However wether this has been a success is... Let's just say questionable.
As I've said before no one knows what happened with RMDE so let's discount that. And yes that should have been communicated better.
The board's failings have been in my opinion lack of foresight as well as communication. As shown by the most recent RNS which could have been prevented by, let's be real, just having a clue what to do and having an ounce of foresight.
We really have no clue what happened in the RMDE case. We have 2 statements that both completely conflict with eachother and proof that the IP applications are there and correct which shows the letter as false??
As I said.. we have no clue..
As for SP I'm sure you're well aware that if we get the plant running in the next 2 weeks it should be the end of the SP plummet (given we meet the order which we should if we get it running in 2 weeks). So you have 2 weeks for it to drop 26.5%. Not sure on that one.. we will only see 0.5 if we get bad news about the plant or the order, by which point you have to question if the fundamentals are still there. Obviously if we miss the order coalswitch doesn't die... But it's such a blow that 0.5 if we miss it will be expensive most likely.
I think saying 0 chance is a bit ridiculous?
We have 5 weeks and it will take 3 weeks to produce. We have 2 weeks get the plant up and running which I think is actually doable...
Finances wise we know we've turned a corner with 7M in the bank and I like diamond if I'm honest. He seems very professional. Maybe I'll be wrong I don't know...
Perhaps, I am well aware about past failures here and was aware before I entered my position. It's just that most definitely his plan is not to fail. As we know with his options he should have the share prices best intentions in mind, however hard that may be to believe. We all here know about Rowan and it is factored in to the share price hence why it seems so cheap most likely.
But also be careful what you wish for. It may seem hard now, but imagine if Rowan goes and we get someone worse..
You may be asking how can we get someone worse than Rowan. But it's possible. I'm not exactly Rowan in before you say that...
Having had the weekend to think about stuff. With the deadline so close we may not get another opportunity like this again before the plant is completed if we make the order date. I know it's a bit risky at the moment with that RNS many people are thinking we may miss the deadline. But I think the price action on Friday was too much for what the news really was. Add that to the price action from the legal stuff with them saying they're forwarding a motion to get it thrown out and yet dipping. I feel this is too good an opportunity to miss up.
Maybe I'm being foolish and time will tell as we all know how price sensitive that order is and making it. But I believe we will make it. I believe 26M market cap is stupidly cheap for what hopefully is about to happen with us starting coalswitch production. We all know the long term fundamentals here. We all know that long term in the past we have been failed and over promised but never delivered.
We all however know the intellectual property is there. And we all know demand is there. As rowan pointed out in the last webinar, licensing demand is also there. I know Rowan to put it generously, isn't the greatest. However progress looks real, we have money in the bank and hopefully the order to be fulfilled and more orders to come in future.
After we've all had the weekend to think and measure this, I would like to know opinions of other people who have been weighing this up.
Good luck to everyone the next 5 weeks. We all know this is make or break. For everyone who holds shares here I hope we make it, this is an incredibly important time.
I first bought in Feb at 1.25. (I've averaged down a lot since then)
Since then I've learnt a lot but one thing I knew full well when I entering the position is about the past here and that the first upwards price action we will see will be late may to mid June.
Rowan holds 29,399,800 2.0125P calls, and 29,399,800 3.522p calls.
If his plan was to be bought out. He will try to fetch 3.522p per share buy out. Failing that 2.0125...
So in my opinion this is a preposterous idea that you think his plan is to be bought out for peanuts!