Montagu's put-up-or-shut-up deadline is 5pm on Thursday 24 April: I bought some22 Apr 2025 06:44
As I said in my comment on Wednesday 16 April:
1. In the days leading up to Montagu's announcement on 27 March, AMS didn't close below 196p. On 26 March they closed at 198.6.
2. I'd missed the chance to buy at, close to, or even below, 180 on Wednesday 9 April when AMS hit its 52 week low of 177, so bearing in mind Montagu's imminent put-up-or-shut-up deadline just three days after Easter Monday I decided to buy on Tuesday 15 April when the price was about 190. I paid 189.38.
3. I was content to get in at nearly 10p less than the closing price of 198.6 on 26 March which was the day before Montagu's announcement.
4. In the last 5 years AMS had rarely closed below 187p. It seems that they closed below 187 only at times in September and October 2023 and in March and April 2024, on Wednesday 9 April and on Friday 11 April. My view was that the floor for AMS shares is about 185 so if Montagu were to announce that they won't be making an offer, no other potential bidder emerges, and the share price falls as a consequence, my downside was limited.
5. Nevertheless, I'd have been able to buy last Wednesday for less than what I'd paid for my shares last Tuesday.
I said in my comment last Wednesday that the floor for AMS is about 185 but on the following day (Thursday 17 April) they closed down 5.4p at 182.6 on modest trading volume.
Like everyone else, I'm looking forward to see how things play out this week. All other things being equal:
- If, as DARTRON thinks, Montagu's P-U-O-S-U deadline is extended, the AMS share price should rise a bit.
- If Montagu say they don't intend to make an offer, the shares are likley to fall a few pence.
- If Montagu have proposed a takeover price which the AMS board has rejected, the share price ought to rise at least a few pence unless Montagu say that they're pulling out.
- If Montagu have proposed a takeover at a price and on other terms which the AMS board is prepared to recommend to shareholders, the share price ought to rise significantly.
Which scenario is it going to be?