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There was an announcement on the RNS at 07:00:05 that the takeover is going ahead at 200p per share, subject of course to the typical standard conditions. The proposal to proceed via a scheme of arrangement requires shareholders' meetings and an application for a court order so completion of the takeover and delisting of TIFS shares will take place in about three or four months. The share price is currently about 192.5p to reflect (i) the risk that the condtions won't be satisfied and (ii) the period from now until when shareholders who hold to the end get their £2 per share if the takeover goes ahead.

A huge flurry of transactions in the first 30 minutes of trading today gives the impression that lots of private investors have sold some or all of their holdings.

The share price is down from the open (and high for today) of 193.8p. I expect that it might continue to trickle down a bit during the course of today and maybe next week too.

Although I don't expect a rival bid from a third party, I intend to hold my TIFS until I need the money for something but I probably won't hold for long because I'm looking seriously at Direct Line for which Aviva have made an offer. If I sit on my hands for long I'll miss the boat if they raise their cash-and-shares offer from a value which is currently worth a bit under 250p per share to 265p per share in which case Direct Line could go up 10% to 15% from 226.5p right now.

According to a comment at 07:40 today on the Direct Line chat board on London and South East, Aviva might offer as much as 300p. this is the comment:

"MaryBr190

Posts: 10,029

Price: 224.40

Strong Buy

£3 mooted for a K.O. Today 07:40

Under ‘put up or shut up’ takeover rules, Aviva now has until 5pm on Christmas Day to announce a firm bid or walk away. Aviva said that after the rejection of its offer this week, Direct Line had ‘declined to engage further’ with it.

However, it emerged that Aviva chair George Culmer met Direct Line chair Danuta Gray to discuss the offer, appearing to suggest that the latter was open to a deal of some sort.

Yesterday, Direct Line’s management was in talks with shareholders. Some, including Redwheel and Schroders, are also major investors in Aviva.

One top-20 shareholder in the target company told the Financial Times that most investors would probably accept a bid at 300p. Analysts at investment bank KBW also suggested Aviva could make a 300p valuation."

Final paragraph of my post at 18:56 should have read:

"If ABC pull out, TIFS are likely to fall to about 160 which will not be good news for anybody, including me, who bought in the last few months at 160 or more."

Final paragraph of my post at 18:53 should have read:

"If ABC pull out, TIFS are likely to fall to about 160 which will not be good news for anybody, including me, who bought in the last few months at 160 or more."

I've just add the comment below to the TIFS chat board:

"Frankiethecabbie - many thanks for your posting at 13:47 concerning the Bloomberg report.

Since the last Friday's announcement of latest extension of the put-up-or-shut-up deadline for only one week, I've been fairly confident of ABC making a formal offer at about 200p. Accordingly, whilst a lot of people seem to have been selling yesterday and today, I've held despite a profit on paper of 7.55p per share on my average purchase price of 181.649 per share on two batches which I bought on Wednesday 20th and Thursday 21st November.

I'd bought TIFS at 163.39 on 7th November and sold at 170.03 on 8th November. The plan was:

1. buy Volex, which I did, in expectation of making a nice profit after a few days when they announced good half-year results on Friday 15th November; and

2. take my Volex profit and buy straight back into TIFS in anticipation of ABC making a formal bid.

Volex's results were very good but their simultaneous announcement of a cash-and-shares bid for TT Electronics which had been rejected led inevitably to their shares dropping 10% on fears of increased debt, dilution of existing shareholders, and even more debt and dilution if they had to increase their offer to get their hands on TT Electronics.

I did sell Volex and, as stated above, last week I bought back into TIFS at an average of 181.649.

When I saw TIFS going up from about 12:30 pm on Thursday 14th November I was tempted to change my plan by selling all or 50% of my Volex holding and buying back TIFS even though it would mean missing out on some or all of any uplift from the Volex results announcement the following morning. However, I kept to the original the plan so as well as making a loss on Volex, I missed the TIFS spike from my selling price of 170.03 to over 180. Incidentally, on that Thursday TIFS was above 284 for some time.

I'm sure that people reading this will be scream out loud that nothing is a given or a "dead cert[ainty]" so there was always a risk that Volex wouldn't go up as I'd expected. However, Volex is still one to watch and might start to creep up again if they announce that they're dropping their TT Electronics proposal. However, a lot of people say that their executive chairman Nat Rothschild who holds 25.68% isn't one to give up and that he likes a fight.

In point 3 of the item which I posted on 26th November, I asked about the chances of another suitor coming in with a higher offer and of a bidding war for TIFs if ABC were to make a formal offer at 200p (or at any other price). If a formal offer is announced by tomorrow's 5 pm deadline, I'll probably continue to hold for a few days in case there's another suitor waiting in the wings.

If there's another extension of the put-up-or-shut-up deadline I'll almost certainly continue to hold.

If ABC pull out, TIFS are likely to fall to about 160 which will not be good news for anybody, including me, who boug

In a moment I'll add this comment to the Volex chat board.

Frankiethecabbie - many thanks for your posting at 13:47 concerning the Bloomberg report.

Since the last Friday's announcement of latest extension of the put-up-or-shut-up deadline for only one week, I've been fairly confident of ABC making a formal offer at about 200p. Accordingly, whilst a lot of people seem to have been selling yesterday and today, I've held despite a profit on paper of 7.55p per share on my average purchase price of 181.649 per share on two batches which I bought on Wednesday 20th and Thursday 21st November.

I'd bought TIFS at 163.39 on 7th November and sold at 170.03 on 8th November. The plan was:

1. buy Volex, which I did, in expectation of making a nice profit after a few days when they announced good half-year results on Friday 15th November; and

2. take my Volex profit and buy straight back into TIFS in anticipation of ABC making a formal bid.

Volex's results were very good but their simultaneous announcement of a cash-and-shares bid for TT Electronics which had been rejected led inevitably to their shares dropping 10% on fears of increased debt, dilution of existing shareholders, and even more debt and dilution if they had to increase their offer to get their hands on TT Electronics.

I did sell Volex and, as stated above, last week I bought back into TIFS at an average of 181.649.

When I saw TIFS going up from about 12:30 pm on Thursday 14th November I was tempted to change my plan by selling all or 50% of my Volex holding and buying back TIFS even though it would mean missing out on some or all of any uplift from the Volex results announcement the following morning. However, I kept to the original the plan so as well as making a loss on Volex, I missed the TIFS spike from my selling price of 170.03 to over 180. Incidentally, on that Thursday TIFS was above 284 for some time.

I'm sure that people reading this will be scream out loud that nothing is a given or a "dead cert[ainty]" so there was always a risk that Volex wouldn't go up as I'd expected. However, Volex is still one to watch and might start to creep up again if they announce that they're dropping their TT Electronics proposal. However, a lot of people say that their executive chairman Nat Rothschild who holds 25.68% isn't one to give up and that he likes a fight.

In point 3 of the item which I posted on 26th November, I asked about the chances of another suitor coming in with a higher offer and of a bidding war for TIFs if ABC were to make a formal offer at 200p (or at any other price). If a formal offer is announced by tomorrow's 5 pm deadline, I'll probably continue to hold for a few days in case there's another suitor waiting in the wings.

If there's another extension of the put-up-or-shut-up deadline I'll almost certainly continue to hold.

If ABC pull out, TIFS are likely to fall to about 160 which will not be good news for anybody, including me, who bo

The first extension in October of the put-up-or-shut-up deadline was for more than 3 weeks to 5 pm on 8th November, the second one was one was for two weeks to 5 pm on 22nd November and the current one is for just 7 days to 5 pm this Friday, 29th November.

I'd be interested to read other people's comments on the following:

1. If by Friday pm ABC haven't quite completed their due diligence and/or haven't quite finalised their financial and other arrangements, would the Takeover Panel agree to another 7-day extension of the deadline?

2. If ABC pull out, the share price is likely to drop to about 160p. Are there any other potential suitors (private equity funds, UK companies or foreign companies) who might be interested in acquiring TIFS?

3. If ABC were to make a formal offer at 200p (or at any other price), what are the chances of another suitor coming in with a higher offer and of a bidding war?

I quote from the RNS announcement at 7am today:

"On 21 November 2024, ABC Technologies submitted a letter to the Board of TI Fluid Systems confirming that it had substantially concluded its due diligence and reconfirming its possible offer price of 200 pence per share. In order to allow it to finalise financing and other arrangements, ABC Technologies has requested, and the Board of TI Fluid Systems and the Takeover Panel have consented to, a one-week extension of the PUSU Deadline."

My view is that a formal offer from ABC is 85% probable. The market agrees with me - as I type this the spread is 182.20 to 183.20, for a mid price up 2p on yesterday's close. The spread of 1p is a bit wide but wide spreads are not unusual during the first 30 minutes after the market opens, especially after an announcement.

I hope for the sake of everyone who has bought TIFI at less than 197p per share that ABC do not pull out. It seems from the chart here on London and South East that the last time TIFS was above 200p was on or about 29 March 2022.

In April 2023 Wood Group began to engage with Apollo Global Management after they made a fifth offer, but after doing due diligence they walked away in May 2023. On 14 October TIFS announced that ABC Technologies, who are controlled by Apollo Management IX L.P., had made a fifth cash offer proposal at 200p per share which the TIFS would be prepard to recommend ot shareholders if there were to be a formal offer. This 200p proposal is subject to various conditions including agreeing the transaction documents and completing satisfactory due diligence.

The current second extension to ABC's put-up-or-shut-up deadline expires 5 pm this Friday 22 Nov'24. One of the reasons for both extensions was to enable ABC to finalise their financing arrangements.

This is what could happen:

ABC make a formal offer by 5 pm this Friday at 200p per share, or at some other price.

ABC pull out after making five offers and conducting their due diligence, which is what Apollo did in relaton to Wood

Group .

Another extension to ABC's put-up-or-shut-up deadline.

What are the chances of a formal bid from ABC this week, or at any other time in the next few weeks?

On the basis of recent guidance from Volex the interim results for the 26 weeks to 29 Sep'24 to be announced at 7am on Friday are expected to be excellent. A possible apart from a fall in demand for their components for electric vehicles due to slightly weaker demand for electric cars in some market should be offset by increasingly great prospects for their products for the data transmission / data centre industry.

In anticipation of this, the share price is creeping up nicely today.

Invrestors and potential investors should note that last Tuesday 5 Nov'24 Octopus Investments Limited's holding in Volex became notifiable when their latest purchase of shares pushed them across the 3% threshold. As at that date they held 5,466,072 shares amounting to 3.01% of the voting rights attached to shares.

London and South East show today's uncrossing trade or trades (invovling 682,017 shares) in blue which indicates one or more purchases. However, bearing in mind that at 82.45p the closing price set in the auction was 1p down on yesterday's closing price and about 0.6p less than the "mid price" for much of this afternoon, do people reading this note of mine think that LSE have got it wrong and that the uncrossing trade or trades was or were actually one or more sales?

I have pasted below the third part of what "davebowler" posted on ADVFN two days ago on Wednesday 30 October 2024:

"Panmure Liberum -

This leaves an equity value of c.£1.2bn against a current market cap of c.£1bn. Suggesting the UK Curry’s business has a negative equity value of c.£200m. For FY25 we forecast EBIT of £211m (£145m from Currys and £65m from Elkjop). What makes this valuation arbitrage even more compelling is the following: a. There could be no pension deficit by 2027 and this should free up £80m of FCF p.a. i) We can argue what multiple to place against this, whether its 4x up to 8x – the point is the value accretion from releasing this cash could add a further £320m to £640m of equity value. b. Some may not want to wait that long – which is fair and they probably might not have too. A triennial review is scheduled to start in March 2025 from which the annual payments of c.£80m may be reduced. Even if this reduced by 25% to 50% the equity upside could be anything from 10% to 25% higher. c. And then there is the prospect of continued upgrades having delivered 25% uplift in FY24:  For every 1% change in sales = around £10m PBT uplift. This means that the uplift to FCF is material as FCF is suppressed due to elevated pension payments. With these ending in FY27 or even could be cut next year post the triennial revenue suggests this could release substantial equity value in the near term. In the meantime, a current FCF yield of 3.5% for Dec-25E, could double off a 2% change in LFL sales."

I pasted below the second part of what "davebowler" posted on ADVFN two days ago on Wednesday 30 October 2024:

"Panmure Liberum -

Value driver - The model has changed and with 20% drop through margins, one needs to focus on EBIT margins as a key valuation driver. We see the opportunity for EBIT margins to double from here and this could drive 100% upside in equity value even before we consider a re-rating. What the market misses - We do not need market recovery to hit our numbers, but we are seeing tantalising signs of improving sentiment. The competitive environment is more rational, and most are focussing on margins and profits. The tech replacement cycle is upon us (post COVID boom) and new AI infused products will drive incremental interest. For only a 5% revenue uplift, earnings could beat by 50% in FY25 & 78% in 2026. Quality of earnings has improved - The quality of the group’s revenues has massively improved with nearly £700m of revenues now being high margin service related. We know cost savings accounting for c.£270m have been made over the last three years, with 1/3 coming out of the fixed cost supply chain. This means incremental revenues convert at a 20% margin, making the earnings very sensitive. Never underestimate the market leader - A UK market share of 23.3% is under pinned by 63% online tech share and c.300 stores. Penetration in Nordics is higher at 28% share but only 35% tech online share. Key to growth is to drive share of wallet through leveraging the 12m active repair plans, >2.5m credit customers and c.1.8m iD mobile subscribers. Key point - For every 1% change in sales = around £10m PBT uplift. This means that the uplift to FCF is material. We forecast £52m of FCF in FY25E (after £50m of pension contribution). This contribution rises to £78m in Fy26E which then subdues the FCF to c.£20m-£30m p.a. for the next three years. However, the sensitivity of the model suggest that it does not take much to materially change this profile, and a current FCF yield of 3.5% for Dec-25E, could double off a 2% change in LFL sales. The sum of its parts is much greater than the whole – for now! What is NOT in the share price If we look at the constituent parts of the EV we have the following: 1. Elkjop could be worth £700m to £800m on depressed multiples and earnings - Elkjop achieved £116m of EBIT in FY20 - a clean-pre COVID period. Despite numerous revenue and margin drivers (which we detail in this note) if we assume this is achievable again then at a multiple of 6-7x puts a value of £700m to £800m on the Nordics business. 2. ID mobile could be worth c.£360m - Precedent MVNOs M&A reflects an EV / subscriber range of c.£200-£350. Taking the bottom of this range suggests a value for iD Mobile of around £360m. info @ fpcfinancial.co.uk 3. Net cash of £96m at the end of FY24 includes an IAS 19 pension deficit of £171m (IAS19)"

I pasted the first part of what "davebowler" posted on ADVFN two days ago on Wednesday 30 October 2024:

"Panmure Liberum -

As we head into peak, one should not forget that Currys offers huge potential upside. We do not need the macro to improve in order to hit our FY numbers but if trading continues as we saw in the first 17 weeks to 24 August, then the groups 20% drop through margin should drive upgrades. Near term share price catalysts: pension triennial review from Q1'25 could free up FCF, the reinstatement of a dividend (could offer 2-4% yield) and peak trading could be robust with tech replacement cycle + AI product rollout as attractions. In this brief 3-page note we detail how SOTP>current market cap; why we are so keen on this stock and where the sensitivity lies. BUY Liberum view on trading, outlook for H1 and momentum could lead to a beat to numbers The UK market has improved to a +5% LFL up from +2% exit-run rate from the prior year. The Nordics may be little softer but competitive dynamics are less. Group GM% performance appears robust and most encouragingly we are seeing strong tailwinds in computing, laptops, and mobile. The group has achieved +2% LFL for the first 17 weeks of FY25 vs. PanLib forecast of -1.2% for FY’25E.  H1 results (12 December) should show incremental improvements vs LY so UK EBIT up YoY with Nordics EBIT flat delivering modest PBT growth in H1. Focus is always on H2 where the group is heavily H2 weighted. On revenues, PanLib forecast does look cautious as (1) the technology replacement cycle takes hold, (2) mobile subscriber base is already nearly at the group’s FY target, (3) we just at the start of the AI boom, (4) services adoption continues to rise and (5) all this before we even talk about the consumer and the macro. Further, GM% appear to be robust especially in the Nordics where normal market competition resumes and UK has made progress.  If the interest rate burden eases and we see housing transactions recover + a softening in the savings rate; Currys looks incredibly well-placed to see significant earnings momentum."

[1] Barclays Price Target / Rating Update

According to an Alliance News report last Friday, 18 October, Barclays had just issued a revised price target of 83p (previously 74p) with an "equal weight" rating. This is absurd and embarrassing for Barclays, firstly because the share price had not been below 85p since Thursday 26 September, and secondly because their new target price is materially out of line with Berenberg's revised price target of 125p (previously 92p) which was issed on Monday 23 September. If I were the manager of the Barclays analyst(s) who work on Currys, I'd have refused to allow this update to be published.

[2] Retail Gazette Article

You might be interested this article which appeared on the Retail Gazette website on 15 Ocotber 2024 with the headline "Currys upgrades flexible payment options as demand soars": https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2024/10/currys-flexpay/

If this is good for the Currys business, it's also good for us as shareholders.

Roofer 61 - From about 11:30 pm yesterday (Sunday) until about 2 am this morning when I fell asleep I couldn't log in - I was getting the caption "Connection failed: SQLSTATE[HY000] [2002] Connection refused". The next time I tried to log in today, at about 8:15 am, this site was working as normal. I guess either they were doing site maintenance or there was an outage due to a technical problem. At the end of last week there was also a problem. The site wasn't updating between about 4:20 on Thursday until about 8:32 am on Friday. This is a comment which I added on the Currys PLC page at 8:46 am on Friday:

"London and South East has not been updating share prices or share trades for Currys PLC since about 4:20 pm yesterday, 26 Sep'2024. It is still showing the price at 4:20 pm yesterday, it is showing the number of trades at that time which was 690 but it has re-set the lkist of trades which is currently blank. As far as I can see, this problem applies for every other company's share which I try to look at. Is anybody else having this diffciulty?

The share chat feature is updating for all the other shares which I am looking at this morning, e.g. Vodaphone, so evrybody ought to see this message of mine."

I traded VOD a few months ago. I bought shortly before it went ex-div in the hope that on the day it went ex-div the price drop would be less than the amount of the dividend. Seeing the degree of the price drop early on the morning it went ex div, I sold to cut my losses. I lost about £205 but I retained 200 shares which are currently worth about £150 so on paper I'm down about £55.

By the way unlike VOD, Currys PLC is a very undervalued company. Look at the price rise in the last ten days or so and the recent broker upgrades. The price rise is despite the lack of takeover interest, although both Elliott and jd.com are now free to bid again because their 6 months of being locked out ended a couple of weeks ago.

Further to my message at 08:46 today, LSE has resumed showing share prices, today's price chart, and a summary of share trades but it is not showing today's earliest trades themselves. Right now there have been 69 trades but it is showing only the ones from 08:32:12 to 08:45:58 (15 trades - 13 sales and 2 purchases) and none of theones prior to 08:32:12.

It looks like the technical problem has been overcome but we will not be able to see data which LSE did not upload during the "outage".

London and South East has not been updating share prices or share trades for Currys PLC since about 4:20 pm yesterday, 26 Sep'2024. It is still showing the price at 4:20 pm yesterday, it is showing the number of trades at that time which was 690 but it has re-set the lkist of trades which is currently blank. As far as I can see, this problem applies for every other company's share which I try to look at. Is anybody else having this diffciulty?

The share chat feature is updating for all the other shares which I am looking at this morning, e.g. Vodaphone, so evrybody ought to see this message of mine.

Very high volume of 2.6million this morning (about 1,800,000 bought and about 800,000 sold) due to Berenbereg's very well-explained increased price target from 92p to 125p which doesn't even mentione the possibility of a bid. Judging by the sizes of the trades, it looks like private investors have been piling in. Of course there are also a large number of private investors selling - you can't blame them for that if they bought at anything from 50p to 79p in the last year but getting out now means that if the price doesn't fall much and they want to get back in (for example if there are new bid runours or the next trading statement is very favourable) they'll have to do so at a higher price than the one at which they sold this morning.

CityTTrader:

At 11:58 yesterday vikingwarrior made a comment on ADVFN implying that he agrees with what you said yesterday about American buying. He said:

"See the sudden rise at 2.30 When New York opens and who is in NY? Elliot! JD's lock out ends tomorrow Sunday 15th."

Also. despite your comments that there were lots of American buyers on Friday afternoon, Friday's volume of 1.7 million was the lowest since Tuesday 3 September.

American buyers can instruct investment banks' European offices or UK stockbrokers to buy (and sell) London-listed stocks at any time of the trading day therefore they do not need to wait until 2:30 pm UK time to buy them, so how was it possible for you (and possibly also vikingwarrior) to tell that there was a lot of American buying of Currys on the afternoon of Friday 13 September?

Apologies: I omitted a very important word when typing my contribution at 15:26 (below). The correct version, with the extra word added in capital letters and a couple of other corrections, follows:

"Is today's rather dramatic share price drop due to investors' disappointment that Elliott Advisors have NOT made a new bid approach after saying on 11 March 2024 that they did not intend to make an offer for Curry's?

JD.com's lock-out period ends on 15 September 2024.

Or is the falling share price due to disappointment with the performance of the Nordic business announced in the trading update on 5 September?"