Member Info for BadNewInvestor

At 9:39 am today the news page for London and South East's coverage of QQ. carried the Alliance News report on the latest broker ratings. It says that Deutsche Bank Research has raised the price target for QQ. to 585p from 550p and their rating is 'buy'.

Maybe this is a factor in this morning's strong rise. Highest price so far today is 507.5.

Moments ago:

- The spread was 505.5 to 506.0.

- There was a transactrion at 11:01 am at 505.5 which is 11.5p (2.33%) up on yesterday's close.

- My gain (net of transaction costs) was 3.42%.

OnWednesday I said that I'd be content with an overnight gain of 3% to 5%. That wasn't to be, but I'm glad that I didn't take yesterday's modest profit because I've gained from a continued recovery i nthe price so far today which (barring a sudden geopolitical crisis) is more likely than not to continue into next week.

As I said in previous recent comments (below), I bought just before the close on Wednesday after watching the price fall from 508.5 at the close four days ago (Monday 14 July) to about 487 early on Wednesday afternoon, and in the expectation that there wouldn't be anything adverse in yesterday's Q1 trading update. There wasn't, so all the bad news was clearly out in the profit warning on 17 March and the preliminary annual results announcement on 22 May.

I'm glad that I didn't sell yesterday. One reason for not selling is that I'm thinking of holding on for the 6.05p final dividend. QQ. go ex-div on Thursday 24 July. Of course if I sell just after they go ex-div I might "lose" this 6.05p but I won't mind if this share continues its upwards trajectory into the middle of next week. If I don't sell as soon as they go ex-div and the upwards momentum continues I'll "recover" some or all of this 6.05p.

Couerdelion - I note your comment at 8:13 am. When I checked the price at about 8:02 am QQ. were up about 5p, then they dribbled back to about 2p up. At 8:39 am they were marginally down on yesterday's close but since then they've had a fairly steady rise.

Highest price so far today is 499.8. Moments ago the spread was 497.2 to 497.8 and there was a buy at 497.8 which is 2.6% up on yesterday.

I'm glad that I made the right call to buy just before yesterday's close after QQ. had fallen from Friday's close of 508.

At 9:44 am today the news page for London and South East's coverage of QQ. carried the Alliance News report on the latest broker ratings. According to this, Barclays has raised the price target for QQ. to 540p from 480p and their rating is 'overweight'.

Moments ago my gain (net of transaction costs) was 1.72%. In my comment at 8:32 pm yesterday I said that I'd be content with an overnight gain of 3% to 5%. I'm debating whether to take my modest profit now or to hold in the hope of a continued recovery this afternoon and into tomorrow or even next week.

I've read the update. Unless there's a subtle nuance in its wording which I've missed, It doesn't contain anything bad or adverse.

As I said in my second comments yesterday (the one at 20:32) I bought some QQ at just over 486 and I'm looking for an overnight gain of 3% to 5%. I hopoe that I've called this one correctly and that the price doesn't drop.

The market has just opened so we can all check the price now. I'm about to log in to Interactive Investor.

Nobody has responded yet to my comment at 1:05 pm today but I'm sure that people will have a lot to say on here and on ADVFN once they've read tomorrow morning's trading update.

Having again read the last few trading updates from the company including its profit warning, its preliminary results for 2024-2025 and comments on here and on ADVFN since March 2025, and bearing in mind Cohort's annual results annuncement this morning and the reaction to them (they closed 13.5% up) I decided to buy some QQ. This is what happened:

- The price to buy QQ. was between about 488.0 and 489.8 from about 2 pm to 2.45 pm today. After that the price fell a bit until recovering from about 3 pm. It fell again from about 3:52 pm.

- I didn't take my chances to buy when the price was under 486p between 4 pm and 4:20 pm. Indeed, at 4:20 pm some buyers paid just 484.4 which was today's lowest price and 11.8p down on yesterday's closing price.

- I bought at 4:29 pm and paid just over 486 which is about 10p under yesterday's closing price.

I'm content with what I paid because it's about 22p lower than last Friday's closing price and less than what I'd have had to pay on Monday 14 July or Tuesday 15 July.

I hope that tomorrow's Q1 trading / outlook announcement is positive and well-received by the market and that the shares go up. If they do, I don't expect them to go up by as much as Cohort's shares rose today. I'd be content with an overnight gain of 3% to 5%.

Also, according to London and South East's diary QQ.'s AGM takes place tomorrow.

What do people on this chatboard think tomorrow's trading update will say and how do you think the share price will react to it?

Defence companies have been announcing record order books and their shares have reached new highs following UK, NATO and other defence spending annoucements in the last couple of months. Just look at Cohort's rise on their annual results and outlook announcement this morning they were up about 12.7% moments ago, and they've been up as much as 16.6% today.

QQ.'s profit warning on 17 March 2025 (see the final paragraph of this comment) led to an enormous fall in the share price to as little as 373.2p on 24 March 2025. If I remember correctly there was no more bad news in QQ.'s preliminary annual results announcement on 22 May 2025.

The price gradually recoverd to close at 572 on 5 June when hit its 52 week intra-day high of 578.5. By the end of last week it had slipped back to about 488. A jump of 20 to 508 on Monday 14 July has been surrendered yesterday and today. Moments ago the mid-price was 487.2.

On the assumption that all the bad news came out on 17 March, I'm thinking of buying QQ. in the hope (i) that if tomorrow's trading statement and outlook announcement isn't well-received the shares won't drop much from the current price, and (ii) that I might make a gain of 3% to 5% overnight if the trading statement / outlook announcement is positive and is well- received by the market.

Have the market makers been trying yesterday and today to shake out nervous shareholders in the hope of selling the shares which they are acquiring at a higher pirce tomorrow if the trading announcement is well-received?

QQ.'s profit warning in their trading update on 17 March 2025 and their preliminary results on 22 May disclosed that they were making a goodwill impairment charge of £140m due to the market backdrop and operational performance in the US, and some one-off exceptional and largely non-cash charges of about £35-40m predominantly in their legacy US operations.

I quote from a RNS issued at 7am today:

"Winsford, UK: Advanced Medical Solutions Group plc (AIM: AMS), the world-leading specialist in tissue-healing technologies, will hold its Annual General Meeting at 11.00 am today at the offices of Investec Bank plc, 30 Gresham Street, London, EC2V 7QP.

Chris Meredith, AMS's Chief Executive Officer, will give a short presentation at the Annual General Meeting. No new material information will be provided."

The big dilemma on a day when there is a huge jump is when to sell, especially when the price is falling from its high for the day. One asks oneself whether it will recover in the afternoon once institutions, brokers and traders have talked things over at lunchtime or when the US markets open.

After this morning's big jump began to fall back, this share has been as low as about 1145. It recovered to the mid 1150's then fell back again to about 1145 at about 3pm so I set a stop loss at a price of 1144. When another recovery began I cancelled that stop loss to set a new one at 1148, then another one at 1150 at 3:11pm and another one at 1159 at 3:18pm.

Moments later the spread was up again at 1162-1164. The dilemma - do I sell immediately at 1162 or better, or do I set another stop loss for insurance and hope for the rise to continue back to nearer 1170 or more at which I could have sold at various times today. At 3:20pm I decided to set a new stop loss of 1161. It was executed at 3:22pm at just over 1159.3. Had I set the stop loss a few seconds sooner, I'd have got 1161.

Whilst I could have sold earlier today for a gain of 12% or more, I'm content with having realised a gain of 11.57% (net of dealing expenses) after having bought at about 1133 just 23 hours earlier.

Moments ago the spread on this company was 1148 to 1150 so I'm happy that I got out at just over 1159.3.

Whilst I'd have been conent to continue holding this company for a bit longer in the hope of the price reaching 1200 or more, as I said in my comments at 19:50 yesterday and 09:13 today the plan was to sell this company today so that I can buy Volex (VLX) before they announce their annual results at 7 am tomorrow.

I'm about to buy some VLX. I'll be happy with an overnight gain on VLX of 3% to 5% but if their forward outlook is very positive (even if they indicate that demand from Tesla for their components is dropping a bit, which is a risk that I accept) they ,ight go up a lot more. On the other hand, if they announce a bid for TT Electronics as they did when they announced their very good half year results on 15 November 2025 or something else spooks the market I'll lose money.

Yesterday's 4.5p (2.13%) share price fall from 211 to 206.5 surprised me, especially as neither the number of trades nor the volume of shares traded was anything. AMS had been up as much as 3.5 until they began to turn lower from about 1:30 pm.

Today AMS have been up all day. Since about 08:00 they haven't been lower than 210. Moments ago the spread was 217 to 218. Up to now, today's price move more than makes up for yesterday's fall which I suspect was due to manipulation by market makers, but maybe those of you who have access to Level 2 can provide a better explanation.

The high so far today is 220.5485. AMS haven't seen 220 since 27 March 2025 when Montague Private Equity announced they were considering making an offer for AMS and 3 April 2025 when they closed at 218.5.

In my opinion, some of the trading activity over the last few days and today is linked to the fact that AMS's AGM takes place this coming Monday 30 June. It's at 11 am. Maybe the market and/or individual investors and traders are expecting a positive announcement either at the AGM or via RNS early on the morning of the AGM, e.g. enhanced turnover and earnings forecasts for the current year and the next financial year.

I wish everyone much success with AMS and all your other investment and/or trading activity.

according to an alliance news report on recent broker ratings which appeared on london and south east's news page for this comopany at 09:53 today, jpmorgan raises bab**** international target to 1,370 (1,280) pence - 'overweight'.

when i logged into my interactive investor account at 8:03 am bab was in auction so the share price spread was "reversed" so i went on to the "news" page here on london and south east where there were four reports. as soon as i saw the headline of the two reuters reports which is "uk's bab**** upgrades medium term forecast as defence needs rise" i knew instantly that the shares would be up.

as soon as a price quote was avaialable at 8:05 am, bab was up 65p at 1098p which was the opening price. i went on to read the comments here on this chat page. at that time, there had been four comments. aliveandkicking's comment at 07:00 said:

"i am hoping the big drop in bae and bab etc yesterday was a tree shake in view of better things to come today with bab and nato eu meetings etc etc , not that i understand the reason for some large drops the best of times it seems you just cant please analysts sometimes who i am sure just toss a coin like the rest of us .gla its 7am"

i said in my comment at 19:50 yesterday "from about 2:45pm defence stocks began to fall again. i held back until near the market close when i managed to buy bab for about £10.33, so in the end i got them at almost one of the lowest buy prices paid today".

by about 08:14 bab was up 135 at 1168p meaning that i was up 13%. as i said in my comment yesterday, i was looking for a rise of 3% to 5% and my plan was to sell today so that i can buy volex (vlx) before they announce their annual results at 7 am tomorrow, thursday (and to buy back into currys (cury) who announce their annual results at 7 am on thursday 3 july). if i do buy vlx, i hope that nat rothschild has learend his lesson and that there are no surprises like announcing a cash and shares takeover approach for tt electronics which caused the share price to dive when they announced their half year results on 15 november 2024.

whilst i said here thsat i was looking for 3% to 5%, i was actually hoping for a 10% rise. moments ago the spread was 1158 - 1160. if i sell for 1158 , id make a 12% profit on my purchase yesterday.

if i do decide to go for a punt on vlx, i have to sell bab today. my fear is that i'll lose some of my profit if the price falls back, for example due to profit taking, as the day progresses. on the other hand, it might rise once brokers start to issue their upgades and when the us markets open. right now i've missed the chance to sell at 1168 and at the high so far today which was 1176 at about 08:17.

i wish everyone great success, whether they're trading or investing.

I've been watching BAB for a few weeks. I've read various things including the 6 February 2025 and 23 April 2025 trading updates, the 26 March 2025 announcement of the extension of a military vehicles contract with the Ministry of Defence, and of course I've been following all the developments concerning increased NATO defence spending which caused the share prices of all the defence stocks to rise in the last few months.

After seeing BAB fall in the last couple of weeks, I decided a few days ago to buy BAB before its annual results announcement at 7 am tomorrow so obviously I had to buy before the close at 4:30 pm today.

At yesterday's closing price of £10.52 BAB was about 5.7% off its 52 week high of £11.16 on 6 June and 4.58 off its its best recent closing price of of £11.05 on 5 June.

Yesterday (Monday) I held tight in the hope that I'd be able to buy cheaper today. whilst all defence stocks were down for most of today, when BAB was down it wasn't down as much in percentage terms as the other defence stocks. I missed the chance to buy at about £10.35 (down 17p on yesterday's close) this morning before most defence stocks recovered a bit between about 10am and 2:45pm when BAB was actually up by as much 13p on yesterday's close.

From about 2:45pm defence stocks began to fall again. I held back until near the market close when I managed to buy BAB for about £10.33, so in the end I got them at almost one of the lowest buy prices paid today.

We know that last year's results will be very good so they must already be baked into the price. I'm banking on the foward outlook including things like net margin and return on capital being better than expected. If they are, and overnight the Asian markets perform well (like the US markets are doing right now) and there isn't any bad geopolitical news, I'm hoping to make an instant quick profit of 3% to 5% and to sell tomorrow when I'm planning on pivoting into Volex (VLX) before they announce their annual results at 7 am on Thursday 26 June. I'm also planning to buy back into Currys (CURY) who announce their annual results at 7 am on Thursday 3 July.

If I can't make a quick overnight profit on BAB, I'll probably hold for longer and finance my purchase(s) of VLX and/or CURY in another way.

Regarding VLX, I'm one of quite a lot of people who lost money when their announcement of excellent half year results on 15 November was spoiled by a simultaneous announcement that they'd approached TT Electronics (TTG) regarding a cash and shares takeover which spooked the market and caused their shares to dive about 10.5% that day and by even more in the next few weeks.

According to someone who commented on ADVFN's chat page for BAB on 4th June, BAB's all time high is £14.75 in March 2014.

My comment yesterday asked for an explanation for the unexpected share price fall of 4.51% on fairly low volume.

My first comment this morning reported on CURY going into auction shortly before a large uncrossing trade involving 490,376 shares at 10:15 am.

Excluding this afternoon's uncrossing trade after the market closed but including five trades which followed it, today's trading volume was a fairly low 1.24 million. Today's uncrossing trade was massive - it involved 5.27 million shares. ( It actually involved 5,271,341 shares. It's on ADVFN but for some reason it isn't showing on London and South East who do seem to have problems with their transaction data feed from time to time.)

I remind everyone that the final results for 2024/2025 will be announced on Thursday 3 July.

Can anyone explain the unusual trading characteristics today and yesterday and yesterday's price move?

In my previous comment at 10:28 I forgot to say that ADVFN showed the large trade as an uncrossing trade.

Due to the 15 minutes delay on London and South East, this trade popped up here at about 10:30 am and it is is also shown as an uncrossing trade but they show it as a purchase at a time when the spread was 119.8 to 120.1 whereas ADVFN show it as a sale at a time when the spread was 120.0 to 120.2. People, including me, commenting on the chat pages for many shares on ADVFN and London and South East do point out from time to time that the algorithms which these two sites use for identifying transactions as sales, purchases or "unknown" are not 100% reliable so they can only be used as a guide.

Right now the spread on Interactive Investor is 120.3 to 120.4. This is a good improvement on yesterday's close at 118.5.

I await comments responding to mine at 17:56 yesterday asking for an explanation for yesterday's significant drop in the share price on fairly low volume.

I couldn't trade CURY on Interactive Investor for a couple of minutes between about 10:13 and 10:15 am. The spread was "reversed" showing about 130p bid and about 119 offer. Clearly CURY was in auction.

At 10:15:16 there was a large trade involving 490,376 shares at 120.0p. ADVFN shows it as a sale at a time when the spread was 120.0 to 120.2. Things obviously went back to normal after it went through.

Prior to that large trade, the previous trade was about 6 minutes earlier at 10:09:16. It was a sale of 963 shares for 120.05 when the spread had been 120.0 to 120.2.

According to London and South East's news item at 14:14 today listing UK earnings and trading statements in the next seven days, Currys issue their full year results for 2024/25 next Thursday 26 June, one week from today. However, the financial calendar page of the investor relations section of Currys' own website and Currys' trading update RNS on 21 May 2025 both say that the results will be announced on Thursday 3 July. I'm confident that the information which Currys have given is correct and that London and South East have got it wrong.

On the basis of the positive guidance from the board in recent months the final results are expected to be good so it's surprising that having traded at between about 121 and about 127 since 13 May, today on fairly low volume CURY closed down 5.6 (4.51%) at 118.5 which is the lowest close since closing at 118.9 on Friday 9 May. Today's fall started at about 11 am.

Apart from increased shipping costs if conflict involving Iran or other parts of the Middle East means that boats bringing products from Asia to Europe have to take longer routes, we aren't expecting anything adverse in the outlook which comes with the annual results so can anyone explain today's unexpected large price drop?

- There might have been some big sales today which haven't been reported yet.

- I don't have access to Level 2 so I don't know if there are big sell orders waiting in the wings.

- Is it possible that market makers have pulled the price down to try to scare current shareholders into selling to enable them, the market makers, to pick up shares on the cheap so that if the results are spectacular and buyers rush in they can maximise their profits?

RNS announcement at 7:47 am today, two working days before the put-up-or-shut-up deadline. RNO's board have recommended a cash offer of 82p per share from Webster.

Moments ago RNO spread was 82.2 to 82.8, and the most recent trade was at 82.0 which is up 6p / 7.9%. Usually at this stage of a bid process the price would be about 4% less than the level of the bid so it looks like the market is pricing in the possibility of a counter-bid from the other predator.

At this time yesterday it was possible to buy at about 72p. This news was obviously leaked yesterday afternoon and led to the price surge to about 77p. Despite that surge, from about 4 pm I was seriously thinking of buying before the market closed yesterday. I'm really annoyed with myself for not buying yesterday!! A lost opportunity for making a very easy profit. Congratulations to any of you who bought RNO recently. You'd have made about 12% in about three weeks.

Further to my comment at 13:52:

- A few minutes ago, at 14:02, there were two trades. Each transaction was a sale of 100,000 shares at 72.0 which is bizarre.because at the time the spread was 76.2 to 76.6!!

- At 14:12 there was a purchase of a vewry small quantity - 191 shares - at 76.6.

- Most transactions and the bulk of the volume during and since the upwards spurt in the price have been sales. The largest sale in this period involved 75,000 shares at just 72.0 when 76.2 to 76.8 which is, as for the two more recent sales at 14:02, is also bizarre.

The put-up-or-shut-up deadline for the two potential bidders as 5 pm this coming Tuesday 17 June. I've been watching the situation and I've been intending to buy before close of business at 4:30 pm on Monday 16 June. To be able to buy a meaningful quantity I have to sell have to sell either my holding in Advanced Medical Solutions or all or part of my much larger holding in Currys. I have unrealised gains in both of these holdings. My preference was to sell Currys at or slightly more than 126 which is about 2p more than their current price, and to buy Renold at about 72 or lower. This afternoon's unexpected Renold surge to about 76 might have scuppered that plan!!

Yesterday Renold closed at 70.2 which is their lowest closing price since they closed at 73.0 on 20 May when they had announced the two takeover approaches. Between 12:34 and 1:05 pm today they spiked up 4.6 from 71.6 to 76.2. At a price of 76.0 they're up 8.26% on yesterday's close. Volume so far today is fairly high at about 987,000. According to both London and South East's and ADVFN's algorithms the volume of shares sold exceeds the volume bought by about 2 to 1, and about 175,000 of today's volume cannot be identified as sales or purchases.

There have been no formal RNS announcements today. Is anyone aware of any stories in the press or any leaks about the takeover situation? If not, can anybody explain the reason for this afternoon's dramatic spike in the price?

Headline of a BBC News online report this morning:

" Stores open at midnight as fans rush to buy Nintendo Switch 2"

Quotes from the report:

" The Nintendo Switch 2 has been released worldwide, with stores opening at midnight so fans could get their hands on the long-awaited console the moment it became available. Some shops have the devices available to buy off the shelf - but in most cases customers have been picking up consoles they had ordered in advance, with UK retailer Currys calling it its "biggest gaming pre-order ever."

Despite the excitement there have been some setbacks, with one supplier, Game, cancelling some pre-orders. ... But that doesn't appear to have put fans off- with queues forming at stores around the world as gamers vied to be among the first to unbox their new console."

"Currys told the BBC it had sold 30,000 units - which it attributed to the "incredible excitement" associated with the launch."

I've been in and out of Currys a few times in the last 16 months or so. Whilst I've made a profit on all of my trades (except possibly one of them - I haven't got time to check my full trading history right now), my gains are less than they could have been because on some trades I paid more than I'd have paid had I waited a few more days to buy and on most trades I sold for less than I'd have got if I'd sold a few days before or after the day I actually sold!

Most recently, I sold at about 100.5p on 23 March 2025 to realise some cash to add moments later to my holding in Bakkavor ("BAKK") who were to go ex-div the following day, 24 April. By switching from CURY to BAKK I'd get the BAKK dividend of 4.8p per share and take advantage of a possible takeover by Greencore, and for the period up to formal announcement of a bid for BAKK I expected to gain more on BAKK than from continuing to hold CURY for the same period.

I sold BAKK on 16 May, which was 3 weeks and 1 day after selling CURY and about a day after the agreed takeover was annonced. My total gain on BAKK was 12.38% including the dividend but had I retained CURY rather than rotating into BAKK my gain on paper with CURY for the same period would have been about 22.7% because on 16 May CURY closed at 123.3. To my surprise, BAKK has continued to gain since I sold nearly 3 weeks ago. If I still held BAKK, my gain on paper with BAKK would now be about 19.9% but still below the 22.7% paper gain had I not rotated out of CURY into BAKK.

I bought back into CURY at about 121.84 on May. About 20 minutes ago the bid price on Interactive Investor was 123.8 so on paper I'm up about 1.08%.

According to the summary on London and South East, today the number of shares sold was 70,925 and 274,785 shares were purchased and the volume was 3,756,685.

70,925 shares sold + 274,785 shares puchased = 345,710 shares so London and South East's algorithms didn't classify 3,410,975 of the shares traded today as either sales or purchases. Moreover, if my recollection is correct, at no time today did London and South East's list of trades show any very large trades going through, so a few minutes ago I had a look at ADVFN's list of today's trades .

ADVFN shows two trades well after the market closed which it identifies as purchases:

- 1,705,000 shares at 17:13:22 at a price of 248.444p; and

- 1,705,000 shares at 17:13:47 at a price of 248.444p.

These two trades also appear in today's "Trade Recap" section of the London Stock Exchange's page for GNC which is:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/GNC/greencore-group-plc/trade-recap

ADVFN classifies these two trades as purchases. But with the prevailing market price being about 190p and the 52 week high on 3 Decmeber 2024 being 228p, who in their right mind would pay 248.444 p to buy 3,410,000 GNC shares? Whilst the London Stock Exchanges records of share trades are supposed to be infallible, is it possible that the records of these two trades, particularly the price, incorrect? If they are correct, Is a bid about to be announced at a price of about 248.5p?

Can anybody on this chatboard shed any light on things?