London South East | The UK's favourite investor portal.

According to https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/silver silver was $114.69 moments ago. It's been as high as $116.02 overight.

According to https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold gold was $5264 moments ago. A Few minutes ago it was $5267 which seems to be another all time high.

At 23:24 on 3 December 2025 I added a comment on this chat board that by trading FRE twice and HOC twice in one week from 21 to 28 November I'd made 14.52% (which included some compounding) net of transaction costs. In that comment I also said that I'd only been looking closely at the price fluctuations of gold and silver and in the shares of companies such as FRES, END, HOC and VALT [Valterra] for about a month before I decided to try trading them. Accordingly, I'm a very late arrival at the precious metals party.

- The second time I traded FRES, I sold for £24.93 on 25 November.

- The second time I traded HOC, I sold at just below 395.8 on 28 November.

I went on to trade HOC once more - on 12 December I bought at about 480.9p and on 12 January I sold for about 565.25p. My net profit was about 16.86%.

On Monday 26 January FRES hit a 52 week high of £44.70 and closed at £44.80, and HOC hit a 52 week high of 765.5p and closed at 750.5. Both were hammered down yesterday, closing at 718.5p and £41.40 respectively.

Obviously I'd have been far better off had I continued to hold either FRES or HOC continuously since late November but I wasn't expecting gold and silver to go up so much and I was really just dipping my toe into the water and seeking short-term gains by trading both companies for the first time. To be absolutely honest, I'm happy that I made good short-term gains and I'm not disappointed about losing out on the huge additional gain which I'd have made had I continued to hold FRES or HOC rather than selling for short-term trading profits. However, on several occasions I've been disappointed with my trading, especially where I've sold a share at a profit or a loss but it went up shortly after I'd sold it.

Last week I bought FRES again in anticipation of a big gain in response to the Q4 production announcement which was released 7 minutes ago. Quite early last week FRES hit £40. I sat on my hands on Thursday when for much of the day I could gave bought at under £40, and indeed for as little as £39.25. On Friday I could have bought at less than Thursday's closing price of £40.84 but again I sat on my hands and didn't push the button until about 3.45pm when I saw silver hit $100 for the very first time. I paid £41.60.

I haven't looked at the production report yet. All being well it's fu of positives and today FRES will recover strongly from its fall of 308p yesterday.

In my comment here just a week ago on 15 January I observed that at about 1 pm that day VLX had hit 443.56, a new 52 week high (it went on to close that day at 443) following a positive surge from 5 January after the recent low of 398 on 17 December, so I was glad not to have sold any the previous week when I could have got more than 430.

The big falls at the start of this week were troubling. VLX fell 16p on Monday 19 January to close at 418 and another 9.5p down on Tuesday to close at 408.5. The prncipal cause was Donald Trump's comments at the weekend which spooked the markets generally but another factor might have been market makers shaking the price down prior to the anticipated January trading update so that they could pick up shares cheaply from weak hands then sell them at a good profit if, as expected, the update was positive.

The trading update yesterday was indeed very positive. As I said here at 14:14 on 6 January, VLX usually rises quite sharply on interim and full year results announcements but then dribbles back down. My existing gain was significantly enhanced on yesterday's great price price so I decided to sell to realise the gain. I sold at just over 456. My profit was 23.84% in just over three months from when I bought at just over 368 on 10 October last year. I'm glad that I'd continued to hold beyond last November when I was regretting being greedy and not selling at between about 426 and 430 which is what I could have got after that month's half-year results announcement.

As far as I can see from ADVFN's record of trades the highest price paid yesterday was 458 so the closing price of 461.5 was a gap-up (please correct me if I'm using this expression incorrectly). VLX opened even higher this morning. Moments ago the spread was 477 to 478.5 and there has been a trade at 478.5, (up 17p) which is a new 52 week high. With hindsight I could have held on and sold today but firstly a good profit is a good profit and VLX could have fallen today had there been bad geopolitical or economic news, and secondly I want to redeploy the money into the gold and silver miner Fresnillo who issue a production report / trading update next week (I believe it is due on Wednesday 28 January) because I think that in the next week or ten days I can make a bigger gain on Fresnillo than with VLX if I were to continue to hold it.

I'll buy VLX again prior to the full year trading update which we can expect in April. I now expect VLX to go up a bit more over the next few days before it begins to dribble. All being well I'll be able to pick up shares in the third or fourth week of March at less than the current level of about 473 and at less than the 456 which is what I got when sold yesterday.

My only fear with VLX is, as I said in my comment here on 15 January, a sharpish fall in the share price if they make another takover approach to TT Electronics in which case it might take 4 to 6 months for the shares to recover.

AMS's financial year end is 31 December, and make their full-year preliminary results announcement in the following March.

In January 2024 and January 2025 they issued brief full-year trading updates containing (i) guidance as to the level of revenue and pre-tax profit which they expected their forthcoming full-year preliminary results announcement to disclose, and (ii) a very short commentary on their outlook for the new financial year and beyond. Both times, the market reacted well to the update - on the day of each update and (except for one day in 2024) for a few days after the update, the share price rose sufficiently to generate a decent very short-term gain over the closing price on the day before the update. In typical, fashion the share price subsequently began to retreat a bit. The relevant share price movements are:

- 2024: Trading update issued 10 January

Closing price 9 January [day before the update] 203.0

Closing price 10 January [day of the update] 215.0 [5.91% gain]

Closing price 11 January 213.0 [5% gain]

Closing price 12 January 215.0 [5.91% gain]

- 2025: Trading update issued 14 January

Closing price 13 January [day before the update] 190.6

Closing price 14 January [day of the update] 218.0 [14.37% gain]

Closing price 15 January 225.0 [18.05% gain]

Closing price 16 January 228.0 [19.62% gain]

On the basis of the dates of the January updates in 2024 and 2025, I expected a full-year trading update this week. If there is one and it's well-received by the market, the share price ought to go up so it made sense to buy some AMS in the hope of making a short-term gain. If there isn't a January update this year, or if there is one but it isn't great, AMS is a great company so people aren't going to lose money in the medium term or the long term. Moreover, short-term share price spikes on bid rumours, courtesy of Mark Kleinman of Sky News and others, are opportunities to sell at a good profit if you're watching the market when the rumour surfaces.

No update was issued yesterday (Monday) so late yesterday afternoon I bought at just over 221.8. In the absence of an update today, I bought more late this afternoon also at just over 221.8. (For much of today I could have bought for a bit less than I paid yesterday - at times they were below 221, e.g. 220.5 and 220.835.)

If a trading update isn't issued tomorrow (Wednesday) it might make sense for people reading this to buy AMS tomorrow in the hope of making a quick short-term profit if an update comes on Thursday or Friday and it's good.

Until I bought yesterday I'd been out of AMS since I sold for a profit of about 18% on 23 October - see my comment here on 8 December.

People here have already commented on the poor figure for fashion, home and beauty in the holiday trading period. There's one more adverse item in this morning's trading update. Stuart Machin's comments on the outlook include the phrase "uncertain consumer environment".

If the market focuses on this, any increase in the share price today and in the next few weeks will be lower than if he hadn't referred to uncertain consumer confidence and, indeed, the share price might even fall on the open or later today.

I remind everyone that in the holiday period trading update on 9 January last year Mr Machin's comments on outlook included this:

- "the outlook for economic growth, inflation and interest rates is uncertain and the business faces higher costs from well-documented increases in taxation."

The market focussed on that so despite excellent 2024 holiday trading especially in food, the was an immediate fall in the share price. The day before the update they closed at 376.8 and I bought that day at about 375 in the expectation of making a good short-term profit of about 20p. However, on the day of the update they closed at 345.3 and continued down for a couple of weeks hitting a closing low of 319.3 on 27 January. In February and early March they recovered to about 376 but fell again. In April they shot up and I got out on 22 or 23 April at jiust over 400. So I might my nice profit, but only after having to wait three months rather than a day or two. I got out on the day of, or the day after, the announcement of the cyber attack just before the big dive in the share price. I could have got out at about 417 on the day before I sold but I was hoping for 20 so I got a bit greedy.

The market's immediate adverse reaction to last year's update on holiday trading is the reason why I didn't buy in the weeks leading up to today's update. It's now only about 15 minutes since the markets opened, and moments ago the spread was 337.3 to 337.9 up about 2.8% on yesterday's close of 328.5. The highest trade so far was at 334.6. Right now it loooks like my decision not to buy in the last few days was wrong.

Although I didn't buy in advance of today's update, I rate MKS as a buy and I foresee a gradual rise to about 370 in the next couple of months provided that there isn't any adverse economic or geopolitical news.

I thank BULLISH AML for his comment at 16:42 responding to my question in my comment here at 12:51 today asking if any one is aware of anything which might explain the big rise since VLX closed at 413 at the end of last week (Friday 2 Jan'26).

If you've been following the saga of the bid for TT ELectronics ["TTG"] from the Swiss company, Cicor, you'll know that:

- It's intended that the takeover proceeds by way of a scheme of arrangement ("the Scheme")

- The postponed Court Meeting and EGM seeking TTG shareholders' approval for the Scheme take place tomorrow, 7 January.

- The Scheme has to be approved by at least 75% of TTG's shareholders who choose to vote, so if more than 25% of shareholders vote against, the Scheme cannot proceed.

- DBAY Advisors Ltd have built up a stake of about 24.5% in TTG. (I haven't tried to find out if they've acquired more shares or disposed of any since their announcement on 9 Dec'25 that they were thinking of making an offer for TTG and that they then held about 24.5% of the company.)

- On 15 Dec'25 DBAY issued an annoucement that (i) they don't intend to make an offer for TTG, and (ii) they continue to believe that the terms of Cicor's offer are unattractive so they intend to vote against the Scheme.

Since 14 Aug'2025 someone called GSEI has made several comments on London & South East's chat board for TTG suggesting that VLX will end up taking TTG over with the backing of DBAY via their holding of about 24.5% of TTG. The main points in his 14 Aug'25 comment are:

- (i) Rothschilds Bank are connected to Nat Rothschild (VLX's CEO and biggest shareholder) and hold the majority of the shares of, and voting rights in, Douglas Bay Holdings

- (ii) Douglas Bay Holdings hold the majority of voting rights in DBAY Advisors

- (iii) in or about October 2025 VLX would again bid for TTG; and

- (iv) DBAY Advisors would vote in favout of a VLX takeover offer.

GSEI's doesn't mention one very important point which is that if the Scheme isn't approved by at least 75% of TTG shareholders choosing to vote at tomorrow's meetings:

- Cicor can elect to acquire TTG by way of takeover offer;

- the key terms of that offer would be the same as the terms of the aborted Scheme; and

- Cicor may set a condition that its takeover offer has to be accepted by either 75% of TTG's shareholders or by any other percentage of TTG shareholders provided that such percentage must be more than 50%.

Accordingly, Cicor would still take TTG over as long at least 50% plus one of TTG's shareholders accepted its takeover offer even if DBAY were to vote against. As Cicor can opt to try to proceed via a takeover offer needing approval of a majority of TTG shareholders, I'm not as convinced as GSEI that VLX will make a takeover offer if the Scheme isn't approved tomorrow.

In a moment I'll add another comment summarising some of GSEI's other recent commens.

Since I started watching, then going on to trade, VLX I've known that usually it rises quite sharply on interim results and full year results announcements and then dribbles back down. The big exception was the November 2024 interims because of the market's adverse reaction to the simultaneous announcement of a takeover approach to TT Electronics.

As far as I'm aware, before VLX hit a new 52 week high of 435 its 52 week high had been 434 on 12 Nov'25 when the 2025/26 interims were announced. Typically, it fell back. The lowest close since 12 Nov'25 was 390 on 26 Nov. For almost all of December it traded above 400 but it closed at 398 on 17 December. Since then it has been on a steady upward trajectory. Repeating and updating some of my previous comments here on 2 Dec'25 and 12 Dec'25:

- My most recent buy was at just over 368 on 10 Oct'25 in anticipation of the mid-October half year trading announcement and the half year results announcement on 12 Nov'25. That day I could have sold at 430 but got a bit greedy and held on for more.

- On 14 November I could have sold for 426 or 427 but still held on in the hope of getting nearer to 430.

- On 19 November my intention was to sell if I could get something like 420 or 425 but I still hold.

It's good to see the recovery from 398 on 17 December.

It's impossible to watch the markets all day so last week, with the price recovery to over 410 so over the weekend I set up a limit order to trigger a sale if the price hit 420. Yesterday I upped the trigger a couple of times yesterday to 420 or more. When VLX hit 417 yesterday I cancelled the limit order altogether because I was in a position to keep my eye on the market.

As I said in my previous comment here at 12:51 pm today, there was a "gap up" to yesterday's closing price of 425 so early this morning I set up a new limit order to sell at 435.

When I logged in at about 10 am today I saw that VLX had hit 435 early this morning but my limit order wasn't triggered because the transaction at 435 was a buy. According to ADVFN the best bid price so far today has been 432. Moments ago the spread was 430.5 to 432.

There has been strong momentum with VLX since 2 Janaury 2026. If it continues I don't want to lose out, so I'll probably take some profit by today by selling part of my holding at, ideally, 430 or more, and I'll keep the remainder.

If the price goes over 435 I'll think about selling the remainder. If I do sell the lot, I'll probably buy again either shortly before the next trading update (presumably there'll be a full year trading update in early April 2026) or sooner if VLX drops by 5% or more and begins to look cheap.

Latest Share Chat

Member Info for BadNewInvestor

Followers

Following

Posts (Last 30 Days)

Posts (All Time)

Last Post

Member Since

Share Chat Post Distribution (Last 30 Days)

Activity Log (Last 30 Days)

Latest Share Chat

Member Info for BadNewInvestor

Followers

Following

Posts (Last 30 Days)

Posts (All Time)

Last Post

Member Since

Share Chat Post Distribution (Last 30 Days)

Activity Log (Last 30 Days)

Please enter at least 2 characters

No results found

Search results

Recently viewed

Trending