Member Info for BadNewInvestor

TMNKY -

I see from your comments at 22:48 and 22:57 yesterday that you've got the point. To summarise in chronological order:

1. Schroders' had held about 5.47% of AGR in the period up to and including 8th August 2024.

2. On 9th August 2024 AGR issued about 245,000,000 new shares. As a consequence, Schroders' holding was diluted to about 4.89%.

3. Schroders had overlooked the issue of the new shares and/or the consequence of them being issued so they failed to declare that their holding had dropped below 5%.

4. Yesterday they belatedly notified AGR that they'd dropped below 5% on 9th August 2024.

5. Yesterday they also notified AGR that last Friday, 21st March 2025, their holding had gone back above 5% (to about 5.24%).

Assura have issued two RNS's today concerning Schroders' voting rights in the company.

According to the first RNS at 11:29 am today, Schroders notified Assura on 21st March 2025 (i.e. 3 days ago) had crossed the 5% threshhold on 9th August LAST YEAR, as at that date they held 4.886188% of the voting rights, and as at the date of their previous notification to Assura they had held 5.474109%.

According to the secoond RNS one minute later at 11:30 am today, Schroders notified Assura on 21 March 2025 that they had crossed the 5% threshhold again on 19th March this year (i.e. 5 days ago). This time they had crossed this threshhold as a result of acquiring voting rights and as at 19th March they held 5.238072% of the voting rights.

The "Additional Information" section of the first RNS explains why they were about 7 months late in notifying Assura that their holding had crossed below the 5% threshold in August 2024 and, curiously, the "Additional Information" section of the second RNS contains the same text which says:

"The disclosure was submitted after the deadline because the shares issued as part of the acquisition of the UK Private Hospital Portfolio (announced on 8th August 2024 and listed on 9th August 2024) were not factored into the Total Voting Rights calculation on 9th August 2024. Consequently, we did not recognise that Schroders had crossed the 5% reportable threshold at that time. Since then, we have remained below the 5% threshold and have not reached any other reportable thresholds until 19th March 2025."

Clearly the individuals who are paid very well to keep their eye on this sort of thing failed to do so.

A couple of minutes ago I added a comment in similar terms to this one on London and South East's chat page for Bakkavor ("BAKK").

The RNS announcement of the Greencore ("GNC") proposal to take over Bakkavor ("BAKK") for a mixture of cash and shares was issued at 1:58 pm on Friday 14th March. I became aware of it late that afternoon, after the market had closed. There was an upwards spurt in the BAKK share price on 14th March but last week it had fallen back until a very surprising last-minute rise of 9.5p in the closing auction on Friday 21st March. Meanwhile, GNC shares have traded in a very narrow range since the announcement.

Last week's low volumes of shares traded in BAKK and GNC and last week's movement in the BAKK share price (except in the case of BAKK on Friday 21st March, especially its large uncrossing trade) give the impression either that the market doesn't expect GNC to improve its proposal or that it does expect an improvement but it doesn't expect BAKK's board to accept any higher offer nor does it expect GNC to go hostile.

GNC's put-up or shut-up deadline expires in just under three weeks at 5pm on Friday 11th April.

In recent months there were lots of comments on the London and South East and the ADVFN chat boards for both TI Fluid Systems and Direct Line Insurance Group after they had received initial takeover approaches, but so far there have been just 3 comments on the BAKK chat boards (2 on ADVFN and 1 on London and South East) and 4 comments on the GNC chat boards (1 on ADVFN and 3 on London and South East). Why is there so much apathy?

Do people expect a higher offer from GNC for BAKK or a counter-bid from a third party? Or do you think that GNC will pull out?

I am about to add a comment in similar terms to this one on London and South East's chat page for Greencore ("GNC").

The RNS announcement of the GNC proposal to take over Bakkavor ("BAKK") for a mixture of cash and shares was issued at 1:58 pm on Friday 14th March. I became aware of it late that afternoon, after the market had closed. There was an upwards spurt in the BAKK share price on 14th March but last week it had fallen back until a very surprising last-minute rise of 9.5p in the closing auction on Friday 21st March. Meanwhile, GNC shares have traded in a very narrow range since the announcement.

Last week's low volumes of shares traded in BAKK and GNC and last week's movement in the BAKK share price (except on Friday 21st March in the case of BAKK, especially its large uncrossing trade) give the impression either that the market doesn't expect GNC to improve its proposal or that it does expect an improvement but it doesn't expect BAKK's board to accept any higher offer nor does it expect GNC to go hostile.

GNC's put-up or shut-up deadline expires in just under three weeks at 5pm on Friday 11th April.

In recent months there were lots of comments on the London and South East and the ADVFN chat boards for both TI Fluid Systems and Direct Line Insurance Group after they had received initial takeover approaches, but so far there have been just 3 comments on the BAKK chat boards (2 on ADVFN and 1 on London and South East) and 4 comments on the GNC chat boards (1 on ADVFN and 3 on London and South East). Why is there so much apathy?

Do people expect a higher offer from GNC or a counter-bid from a third party? Or do you think that GNC will pull out?

Cobas Asset Management, a Spanish investment oufit, have been a big holder Currys for several years. There was a RNS at 1:54 pm announcing that on 17th March their holding had increased to above the 7% threshhold to 7.115493% of the voting rights, up from their previous notification which was 6.995647%.

Cobas' previous notification about their holding was on 14th February 2025 which reported that they had crossed the 7% threshhold in the other direction on 13th February when their interest in the voting rights had dropped to 6.995647% from 7.925100% at the time of their most recent notification prior to that one.

Accordingly, from 14th February to 17th March Cobas have acquired a net 1,358,449 shares in Currys. They will have paid not less than about £1.2m for these shares.

I quote something which I found a few minutes ago on the Cobas Asset Management website:

"At Cobas Asset Management we are faithful to our value investment philosophy, based on buying companies at a price below their intrinsic value and always with a long-term vision."

A few moments ago Currys were up 1.175p (1.33%) at 89.275 and so far today the high was 89.9.

I align broadly with FATSUPERMAN's comment at 12:44. He said that that he cannot see MKS recovering to 400p by 31 March 2025. My view is that this is very unlikely but not impossible.

I agree with FATSUPERMAN and others that the supermarkets with most to lose in a price war inititated by Asda are Lidl, Aldi, Tesco and possibly Sainsburys. To that list I would add possibly Morrisons too. Asda, Morrisons and (in a different sector of the commercial world) Manchester United are just a few examples of how acquisitions funded by lots of debt often give rise in just a few years to a significant decline in the performance of the underlying business. Too mch debt = lots of interest = less free cash to deploy for promotion (e.g. price cuts and other incentives) or expansion (more or improved shops in the case of supermarkets) of the business.

One point which I omitted to mention in my previous comment at 10:32 today is that when a given company's share price reacts to news, the fall on a day when bad news emerges is usually far more dramatic than is the rise on a day when the good news emerges. From its close at 352.8 last Thursday (13th March) MKS fell by 18.4p to 334.4 on Friday and by another 13.7p to 320.7 yesterday, Monday.

A few minutes ago MKS was up 8.5 (2.65%) at 329.2 which is its high so far today.

Easy come, easy go!!

BURGESEB said in his or her comment at 22:11 on 17 March: "The SP will bounce back to 400 p levels before 31/03/25. Time to but if you have funds"

FENDER5 asked in his comment at 22:31 on 17 March: "Burgeseb you are suggesting in your post tonight that M&S sp will recover from a 320 close today and jump to 400 in less than 2 weeks?"

Whilst past share price performance cannot predict future performance, I remind everybody that MKS went up significantly over two days earlier this month. Adopting the key parts of my comment on this chatboard at 14:35 on 4th March 2025 under the subject heading "MKS at Highest Since I Paid 377.8p on 8 January 2025", this is what happended:

1. On 8th January 2025 I bought MKS at 377.8p.

2. It closed at 319.3 on 27th January meaning that I was over 15% down (and about 16% down including my transaction costs which were mainly stamp duty).

3. It closed at 376.6 on 5th March meaning that I was about 0.3% down.

After rising steadily from Thursday 20th to Friday 28th February, MKS closed up 9.9p at 364.7 on Monday 3 March and up 11.3p at 376 on Tuesday 4 March.

I don't haves pare cash at the moment and I don't want to realise my other current holdings. If I did have spare cash I'd buy more MKS to average down because I agree with other on here who see busy MKS shops when they're out and about and who expect great figures when they report annual results on 21st May.

By the way, my other current holdings are mainly Assura (AGR) and Currys (CURY).

AGR is a bid situation on which I'm currently up 6.3% in just under 4 weeks. AGR's board have agreed a price with the bidder (a consortium of KKR and another private equity-type outfit from the USA) and the put-up or shut-up deadline has been extended to 5 pm on Friday 11th April to allow time for due diligence, to prepare the offer documents, etc. There's a small prospect of a better offer from Primary Health Properties (PHP) who have made an all-share proposal which AGR's board have rejected. If PHP want ot merge with AGR, I think that they'll have to team up with another entity who can give them a lot more firepower.

I've been in and out of CURY over the last year or so. My latest purchase was at 93.878p on 2nd January prior to a positive trading update. It's best close since I bought my cutrrent batch was 99.6p on 19th February. Their highest price in the last 52 weeks was 101.6 intra-day on 21st February. They had trickled back to close at 85.3 last Thursday 13th March. It looks like a positive recommendation from Berenberg yesterday led them to close up 1.95p (about 2.26%) yesterday on modest trading. A few minutes ago they were up 0.55 at 88.65, also on modest trading. On 21st May they give their pre-close trading update for 2024/2025 in advance of their full year results announcement on 3rd July.

The "News" page for London and South East's coverage of Currys contains ShareCast's report on Berenberg's recommendation. It was added to the "News" page at 12:39 pm today.

Berenberg expect that their unchanged discounted cash flow-based target price of 125p will prove prudent over the medium term, and they rate Currys at 'buy'.

It looks like this recommendation is the behind the spurt in the Currys share price this afternoon. On modest trading, it was up 2.05p (2.38%) at 88.2p at 4:17 pm.

SCRATCH 49 -

Due to limitation on the number of characters which are allowed in each comment here, the last paragraph of my comment is incomplete. It should say:

"In addition to the time factor, the current share price is at a discount to the 48.56p proposal to reflect execution risk. This is the risk that the takeover does not happen because the consortium does not make a formal offer or, if they do, some of its condtions are not satisfied or waived so they pull out."

Due to the current share price's discount to KKR consortium's proposed cash price of 48.56p, people who expect the consortium's proposal to lead to a formal offer and then completion of a takeover are buying in the expectation of making a gain of about 4.3% from now until the takeover completes in the next five or six months which is not a bad return.

As others here have pointed out here in the last three weeks or so, if KKR and its joint venture partners pull out the share price is likely to dive, possibly to something like 35p or less, unless the market thinks that an alternative bidder is likely to show its hand. Accordingly, the fact that Primary Health Properties have proposed an all-share offer is likely to give some support to the price at about 41p to 43p if KKR pull out. Conversely, if someone comes along with a proposal worth more than KKR's 48.56p the price is likely to rise above that to reflect the prospect of a bidding war.

SCRATCH 49

I quote part of your comment at 15:45 today:

" ... could someone tell me why these shares have not reached the cash offer price . Am I missing something.?"

The main reasons are TIMING and EXECUTION RISK.

TIMING

Assuming that the KKR / Stonepeak consortium's bid is successful (i.e. all pre-condtions are satisfied - see "Execution Risk" below) it will be a few months, and possibly 6 months, from now until they complete their purchase of AGR's shares and AGR shareholders get their money. The shares will not be worth the offer price of (disregarding any dividends paid in the meantime) 48.56p until the completion date. If people buy AGR shares at 48.56p today they will not make any gain between today and completion and, being out of their money for that period, they will be deprived of whatever income, such as interest, which that money would otherwise generate in that period. Accordingly, people buying the shares today will not pay the full offer price of 48.56p which will be the value on completion of the takeover in, say, 6 months. Until completion the share price has a discount to the 48.56p to compensate for what people's money could earn in the period to completion. It will reflect underlying interest rates such as the rate paid on bank deposits. Other people can tell you what the discount rate is. I guess that at the moment it is something like 5% on an annual equivalent basis. If the rate is 5% pa, the time element will account for about 1p of the 2p or so of the discount, i.e the amount by which the current share price falls short of the consortium's cash offer price.

EXECUTION RISK

Bid scenarios involve uncertainty. Right now the consortium's offer for AGR is merely a proposal which is sufficiently attractive to the board that they are letting the consortium go through the books to do their "due diligence". If the consortium finds anything adverse, e.g. a serious detrimental financial issue, they are likely to reduce their 48.56p proposal to reflect the detriment and might decide to pull out altogether.

If due diligence does not throw up any thing nasty, the consortium will elevate their current proposal to a formal takeover offer. Their put-up or shut-up deadline for this is 5 pm on Monday 7 April 2025. If their proposal becomes a formal takeover bid, the lawyers will prepare formal bid documents which will provide for lots of conditions to be satisfied before the takeover can go ahead. One very important condition is getting AGR's shareholders' approval for the bid. If all condtions are waived by the consortium or are satisfied the bid goes unconditional and completes. If not, the bid falls through.

In addition to the time factor, the current share price is at a discount to the 48.56p proposal to reflect execution risk. This is the risk that the takeover does not happen because the consortium does not make a formal offer or, if they do, some of its condtions are not satisfied or waived so they pul

TMNKY -

Thank you for your clarification in your comment at 17:32 in which you used the exprression "NTAs". Is this your shorthand for net tangible assets?

Further to my comment at 16:56, I hold AGR. I bought on Friday 21 February 2025. For those who are interested, when I have a moment I might add another comment telling you why I bought and what my current intention is in relation to selling or continuing to hold.

Today AGR closed up 5.82p (14.29%) at 46.56 on, predictably, much, much higher volume than normal via many more trades than normal. Right now London and South East says that there were 4,113 trades and it shows the intra-day high as 46.78. Interactive Investor shows it as 46.86.

This morning's RNS answered one of the questions - and probably the biggest one - which I asked in my comment at 09:36 last Thursday 6th March which was "How much do KKR really want AGR?".

However, I must agree with cynical question which TMNKY asked in the last part of his comment at 08:45 today - he said "I wonder what 'persuaded' the board to recommend the offer of 0.16p more."

At 1 pm today PHP issued an RNS which appears on London and South East's PHP chat page. PHP say that on Monday 3rd March they made a preliminary approach about an all-share offer for AGR "as it has long believed in the merits of a potential combination of the two businesses which has compelling strategic and financial rationale. In subsequent days, discussions between financial advisers were held around the illustrative benefits of a combination. This preliminary approach, which did not include a specific exchange ratio, was rejected by the Board of Assura on 9 March 2025. The Board of PHP is considering its position."

PHP's RNS goes on to say that their board believes there is considerable merit in working with the AGR's board to determine if an offer can be made on terms attractive to both sets of shareholders "including by:

- Creating a portfolio of significantly enhanced scale;

- Reducing the cost of capital;

- Realising significant value from synergies;

- Creating a market leading platform for secure income in a growth sector;

- Strengthening the combined group's balance sheet;

- Creating an opportunity for a premium re-rating of the combined group;

- Materially increasing liquidity in the combined group; and

- Leveraging the strong experience and expertise of the combined management team."

As other people have been saying here today, it's the institutional shareholders who'll ultiamately decide AGR's fate. I believe that PHP would have to stretch very hard indeed to offer terms which are more attractive to AGR's institutional shareholders than KKR's terms but they might be able to improve their proposal if they find a joint venture partner with a lot of firepower to match the firepower of KKR and its joint venture partner in their little consortium.

In my view, a bidding war between KKR and PHP plus anybody who they might team up with is much less likely than one between KKR and a new entrant who's prepared to pay more than KKR's increased offer, such as another USA-based private equity fund with lots of firepower.

If PHP has long believed in the merits of a potential combination of the two businesses, why didn't they make an approach to AGR's board months or years ago?

Right now the shares were down about 0.76p (1.85%). Presumably this drop reflects the fact that people buying AGR from today do not get the latest dividend of 0.84p because it went ex-dividend today.

More importantly, KKR's put-up or shut-up deadline expires in eight days on Friday 14th March. Up to now they haven't announced that they are pulling out so I infer that they are still talking to the board and have put forward a more attractive proposal than 48p per share.

Surely the huge assets and firepower of KKR entitites would enable them to borrow at better rates than AGR currently pays for loan finance. If I'm right, when they decided on the maximum which they're prepared to pay they'll have factored this into their calculations.

Do people think that KKR are prepared to offer enough to persuade the board to agree terms and to open up the books to enable them to do a full due diligence?

Are KKR trying to schmooze the big shareholders?

If any new proposal is tempting to big shareholders, will they put pressure on the board to recommend the increased offer to shareholders?

If KKR can't agree terms with the board, would they go hostile?

How much do KKR really want AGR?

The heading in each of my comments yesterday included text saying something like "MKS at Highest Since I Paid 377.8p on 8 January 2025".

Repeating and augmenting part of my comment at 1:33 pm yesterday, I bought at 377.8 hoping of a material gain of something like 15p (about 5%) to 25p (about 7%) on and/or shortly after their holiday period trading announcement on 9th January but despite the excellent figures they closed that day down 32.5p at 345.3 and on 27th January they closed at 319.3 which meant that I was down about 15% or 16% after taking my transaction costs (mainly stamp duty) into account.

At yesterday's close MKS were up 9.9p (2.79%) at 364.7p (after being as high as 367.4 shortly before 3:10 pm) and I was down only 3.98% on my purchase price (inclusive of transaction costs). It's great to see that so far today the strong share price recovery continues. About an hour ago MKS were up 11 at 375.7. At that price I was down only about 1.1%.

Thank you HG44 for providing the link to today's Grocery Gazette's article on Kantar's latest grocery retailers' sales data. I see that at 10:29 am today someone called "johnwise" had reproduced the first three paragraphs of this article on ADVFN's chat page for MKS. This latest data is doubly good for MKS because they also benefit from the good Ocado Retail sales data via their 50% share in the Ocado Retail joint venture.

I'm not convinced that the significant MKS share price rise in the last few days is for the reason which CHILTING suggested in his comment at 09:22 today (that MKS is taking on the role as a defensive stock in the Trump ravaged market) and/or due to today's good sales data. This week's price rise from 354.8 at last Friday's close to 375.1 moments ago (after an intra-day high so far of 376.4) has been at only modest or normal trading volume, with the exception of the two curious trades at 15:12 yesterday referred to in my comment at 5:51 pm yesterday.

As an aside, many of you will have already observed that OCD is down again for the fourth day running. They closed at 333.2 last Wednesday, 273 on Thursday, 259.8 on Friday, 253.9 yesterday and today they are currently down about 20.4 at about 233.5. OCD's recent share price reflects the reaction to its most recent annual results announcement last Thursday and the performance of and prospects for, or lack thereof, its technology operations and partnerships with Kroger in the USA and with others.

CHILTING -

Your comment at 9:22 am today says that MKS seems to be taking on the role of a defensive stock in the Trump ravaged market and this would bode well - I assume that you mean that it would bode well for the share price.

However, people must bear in mind that this week's share price rise from 354.8 at last Friday's close to 370.5 moments ago (after an intra-day high so far of 372.1) has been at only modest or normal trading volume, with the exception of the two curious trades referred to in my comment at 5:51 pm yesteday - details of both of these trades came up after yesterday's market close but they were transacted at 3:12 pm yesterday, and both involved 11,464.688 shares at a price of 355.4p (which was below the market price of about 366.3 at the time) for a total consideration of about £81.47m.

Of course what people like you and me and probably everyone else who is reading this do not know is what prices are being paid and how much volume is passing through the dark pool. This begs the question of what effect dark pool trading has on the prices which "normal" market makers quote and which we and the general public see.

Readers might be interested in this comment which in effect duplicates one which I made on London and South East's page for TTG a few minutes ago.

At 12:11 yesterday (3rd March) someone called Adastra made the following comment on London and South East's page for TTG:

"TE Connectivity plc (NYSE: TEL) is trading on a 15yr high and would be the perfect suitor for the acquisition of TT."

Perhaps TE Connectivity have already cast their slide rule over TTG and decided that they don't like what they see!!

Also, recent suggestions from Adastra and/or others commenting on London and South East's page for TTG that VLX could make another offer for TTG especially if another bidder for TTG surfaces must be far off the mark. This is because of the collapse in VLX's share price on and since 15th November 2024 (when they issued an RNS setting out the terms of their part share / part cash offer for TTG) due to the market's distate for the extent of the aggregate of (1) the new debt which would need to finance the cash element of their offer and (2) the TTG debt which they would be taking on if the takeover were to go ahead. In his or her post at 13:08 on 26th February on London and South East's page for TTG, SG2025 made exactly this point, saying:

"Also, given Volex's last offer was part cash and part stock, they will need a higher share price to justify a similar bid, or otherwise come up with a lower bid, which may be acceptable to most investors, but unlikely for most institutions given the last bid was very recent. This may change if there is another bid, but in that case, Volex is unlikely to be a strong bidder vs other names you mentioned."

VLX's share price has not made even a partial recovery since their disastrous bid announcement on 15th November 2024.

I quote Adastra's comment at 12:11 yesterday (3rd March):

"TE Connectivity plc (NYSE: TEL) is trading on a 15yr high and would be the perfect suitor for the acquisition of TT."

Perhaps TE Connectivity have already cast their slide rule over TTG and decided that they didn't like what they saw!!

Also, recent suggestions from Adastra and/or others that VLX could make another offer especially if another bidder for TTG surfaces must be far off the mark because of the collapse in VLX's share price on and since 15th November 2024 (when they issued an RNS setting out the terms of their part share / part cash offer for TTG) due to the market's distate for the extent of the aggregate of (1) the new debt which would need to finance the cash element of their offer and (2) the TTG debt which they would be taking on if the takeover were to go ahead. In his or her post at 13:08 on 26th February, SG2025 made exactly this point, saying:

"Also, given Volex's last offer was part cash and part stock, they will need a higher share price to justify a similar bid, or otherwise come up with a lower bid, which may be acceptable to most investors, but unlikely for most institutions given the last bid was very recent. This may change if there is another bid, but in that case, Volex is unlikely to be a strong bidder vs other names you mentioned."

VLX's share price has not made even a partial recovery since their disastrous bid announcement on 15th November 2024.

In a moment I will add to London and South East's VLX page a comment in almost identical terms to this one.

FFORESTGWMP -

Re: your comment at 22:51 today, please could you explain who or what you mean by "Bot1"?

When I commented at 17:20, 17:21 and 17:51 today I omitted to acknowledge PANG's contribution at 13:59. Apologies for that.

Pang suggested that today's rise in MKS might be linked to an announcement that Applegreen, MKS's "partner" in Ireland (presumably it's a franchise arrangement) who already operate 21 Marks & Spencer stores there will be opening another 20 this year and aim to increase this to 60 (i.e. another 19) in the medium term.

Pang supplied a link to the article in a publication called Retail Insight Network. I recommend that everybody reads this article which was published today.

At 11:13 yesterday (Sunday) somebody called "debsdowner" added a comment about the Applegreen expansion on ADVFN's page for MKS but until I read the article for which Pang provided the link I didn't understand the significance of this development because debsdowner's comment was too brief; it simply says "Applegreen to double M&S food outlets in Ireland".

According to Retail Insight Network's article, each new location will offer over 400 Marks & Spencer food products and a click and collect service for Marks & Spencer clothes and selected Marks & Spencer home products.

Incidentally, the final paragraph of the article says that Applegreen run 59 locations under the Welcome Break name in the UK. Of course they must be motorway service stations and any similar facilities on trunk roads. If I remember correctly, a lot of Welcome Break service stations contain mini Marks & Spencer shops selling mainly, or exclusively, food.