Member Info for BadNewInvestor

Dark_Knight2020 said in his comment at today:

"What a strange open this morning ... silver hit high of 66.38 and hoc opens 1% down at open"

As I'm sure Dark_Knight2020 had observed, both Endeavour [EDV] and Fresnillo [FRES] were very fast out of the starting block - by 9 am EDV were up over 1.1% and FRES were up over 2.9%. HOC really did lag far behind them.

I see that AT 10:33 am today THERE WAS A BIG TRADE INVOLVING 470,139 HOC SHARES at 469.5p, and ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AFTER THAT HOC's SHARES BEGAN TO RISE NICELY. Since then HOC has caught up with EDV and FRES.

The spread was 469 to 470 when the large trade involving 470,139 shares at 469.5 took place. As it was at the mid-price, both London & South East and ADVFN have classified it as a "?" / "don't know" rather than as a sell or a buy. I don't have Level 2 access but my guess is that this large trade was a sell which had been in the order book from fairly early this morning and that it had suppressed HOC's share price until it was transacted at 10:33:07 am.

Two or three minutes ago HOC's gain was beating both EDV and FRES in percentage terms:

- HOC was up 2.78% at 479.6 - they've been as high as 482.4 today

- EDV was up 2.05% at 3784 - they've hit a new 52 week high of 3792p this morning

- FRES was up 2.74% at 3004 - they've been as high as 3032p, just 2p off its 52 week high

There was a RNS at 5:55 pm (i.e. after the market had closed) yesterday, Thursday 11 December, reporting that the THE NEW EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN, Dave Webster, HAS BOUGHT QUITE A LARGE NUMBER OF SHARES on 8, 9 and 10 December. This is the reason for this morning's nice rise in the share price.

He's bought 113,096 shares at an average price of 408.34p.

So far today:

- VLX opend up 7.5 to 415

- The high is 419 (a buy at 8:43 am)

- The low, according to London & South East, ADVFN and Interactive Investor, is 410.5 but there ware some early trades below 410 (including 409.75 which ADVFN shows as a purchase and 407.24 and 407.422 which ADVFN shows as sales, but these three might be late reports of transactions which took place yesterday before the RNS)

Moments ago the VLX spread was 416 to 417.

The breakdown of Mr Webster's purchases is:

- 8 December: 77,102 shares at 410.04p

- 9 December: 16,907 at 404.96p

- 10 December: 19,087 at 404.43p

Further to my comment on 2 December, I still haven't sold any of my holding in VLX so even with this morning's rise I haven't gained as much since 2 December as I'd have made by selling them and redeploying the proceeds into buying bigger quantities of shares in other companies in which I've recently traded profitably. Those other companies are Hochschild (I've been in and out a couple of times), Fresnillo (I've also been in and out a couple of times) and On The Beach which I bought at just over 191.5p the day before their 2 December results announcement and which I still hold, and at the spread moments ago of 229.5 to 230 I have an unrealised gain of 19%.

I also bought Chemring at just under 479.5p the day before their 10 Decmber results announcement but they've been down ever since. I can redeploy the money elsewhere with better prospects of a reasonably quick gain so this morning I sold at just over 463 for a loss of 4%. I've bought more Hochschild with some of the proceeds but after the bulk of this morning's big gain - up to about 8:29 am I'd have been able to buy them at under 460p I hesitated and ended up paying about 482 at 8:49 am.

Glowacki -

I have a question on your comment at 11:56 today.

CHG shares, like the other defence company share prices, have gained significantly since May. Whilst they've fallen back since early November (presumably on profit-taking and/or reduced buying interest), they're still a lot higher than this time last year, and the UK Ministry of Defence, other Western governments and other allies who are permitted to buy UK defence companies' products are having to increase their defence budgets so why do you think that one holding institution (or indeed more than one institutional or other large shareholder) is (or are) using the positive results to sell down its (or their) holding in CHG?

i'd watched chg for several weeks before the 2023/24 final results were announced on 17 december 2024 but i refrained from buying beforehand because it's typical for chg to fall on the day of a results announcement or of a trading update. i'd noticed that the share price had intitially fallen on the days when the previous year's final results for 2022/23 were announced in december 2023, a trading statement was issued in february 2024 and interim results for 2023/24 were announced in june 2024. as i expected they did indeed drop on 17 december 2017, closing down 47p (13%) at 314.5. however, the price did recover as it had done in decmber 2023, february 2024 and june 2024.

a few days ago i decided to buy if the 2024/25 final results to be announced today were good but the share price fell shortly after the market opened at 8 am. yesterday chg closed up 3 at 480.5, at 08:00 they opened at 480 and within seconds the spread was 469 to 472.5. snapshots of the spread a few minutes later are:

8:08:12 464 to 468 but only for about 2 seconds

8:08:38 468 to 470

8:08:48 469 to 471

8:08:12 469 to 471.5

8:09:12 469 to 472

8:09:12 470.5 to 473

8:09:12 471 to 474

8:09:12 472 to 475.5

8:09:12 472 to 475.5

8:09:13 474 to 476

8:09:16 474.5 to 477.5

8:09:41 475.5 to 478

8:09:46 478 to 481

i tried to buy at about 469 but i hesitated for too many seconds at a time when the price must have fluctuating a lot so interactive investor didn't fulfil my order. at 8:09 am the spread having recovered quickly from 464-468 to 478-481 and with the buy price now above 480 i feared that chg wouldn't drop back again and that i'd miss out on further gains. i got a quote to buy for just under 479.5 and i went ahead. in effect, i've bought at yesterday's price.

advfn's algorithms aren't perfect and their list of today's trades shows my buy as a sell

after transaction costs i break even at 482.2.

at 08:10, a couple fo minutes after i bought, the spread hit 482-484. despite fearing that i wouldn't be able to buy in the low 470's again, at 08:14 it was 471-473.5, then 468.5-471.5. at 10:20:28 it was as low as 465-466. a few minutes ago it was 467-468.

perhaps the market is unhappy by chg saying that continued strong momentum in countermeasures & energetics was offset by softness in sensors & information due to short-term delays in uk government spending.

all of the other defence stocks which i follow are up so right now i'd have been better off buying one of them - a few minutes ago bae systems was up 2.3%, rolls royce up 0.4%, bab**** up 3% and qinetiq up 2.6%.

On 15 April 2025 I bought AMS at just under 189.4p after an upward spike in the price had caught my eye following the announcement that Montagu, the fund manager / private equity investor, was considering a takeover approach of AMS. I bought in the hope of making a good profit in the event of a formal takeover offer but on 24 April Montagu announced that they wouldn't be making an offer.

I sold in two stages:

14 May: I sold just under 12% of my holding for just over 193p, a gain of 1.45% net of transaction costs

23 October: I sold the the remaining 88% of what I'd bought for just over 223.7p, a gain of 18.03% net of transaction costs in six and a half months.

Despite selling out, I've continued to watch closely the trading activity in AMS and its share price almost every day. Last Friday 5 December was a rare exception because I was focussing on other companies that day. It wasn't until Saturday night that I found out that on Friday:

- AMS closed up 18.5p (8.92%) at 226 on Thursday's closing price of 207.5;

- they'd been as high as 247p at which point they were up 39.5p (19%) on Thursday's close; and

- the reason for this spike is that on Friday morning Sky News' City Editor, Mark Kleinman, issued a report suggesting that Bridgepoint Capital were contemplating a bid for AMS at between £550m and £600m which would value each share at 270 to 280p.

I calculate that an offer of £550m would equate to 254.3p per share and an offer of £600m would equate to 277.4p per share.

Mark Kleinman has previously reported on possible takeover interest for AMS. Read his article on 17 September 2024 suggesting that Inflexion, a private equity business, had been looking over AMS at: https://news.sky.com/story/london-listed-medical-group-ams-draws-private-equity-interest-13216821

To avoid a false market in AMS shares, there needs to be a formal announcement via the Regulatory News Service as to whether or not Bridgepoint Capital has made a takeover approach. My view is that we can expect an announcement from either or both of AMS and Bridgepoint Capital at 7 am today, Monday, before the market opens at 8 am.

If it's announced that Bridgepoint Capital haven't made an approach:

- AMS shares will probably drop back to between 207p and 220p which has been their trading range most of the time since 27 October 2025.

If it's announced that Bridgepoint Capital have made a formal approach

- the shares could hit Friday's peak of 247 or even more.

I'll wait to see what, if any, announcement is made early tomorrow morning before I decide whether to buy AMS again. My decision will be heavily influenced by the content of any announcement.

On 4 March 2025 OTB an RNS was issued saying that on 3 March Norges Bank held 4,800,000 shares which amounted to 3.00831% of OTB. Many, if not most, of you will have read the RNS yesterday, Thursday, announcing that on Wednesday 3 December their interest in OTB shares had fallen below the 3% threshhold. They now hold 4,052,548 shares which amoints to 2.79669% of OTB.

I follows that Norges Bank have sold 747,452 shares. We can safely assume that they will have sold most, if not all, of them after the full-year results announcement on Tuesday 2 December. Perhaps there was a rumour in the market on Wednesday that a shareholder was offloading a significant block of shares. If so, may be this is what caused OTB's fall to close at 409 on Wednesday after it had hit 222p just before 9 am.

On Wednesday there were eight individual trades involving 100,000 or more shares and if I remember correctly which ADVFN classified all of them as "not known" rather than as buys or sells because they were transacted at the mid price.

From 8:30 am yesterday OTB had been trading between about 205.5 and 210. Within a couple of minutes after the RNS was issued at 1:16 pm they began to go up. At 2 pm they were 213, up 3p from where they were just before the RNS. At times later in the afternoon they hit 214 and closed up 4 at 213.

I'm of course just speculating but:

- Perhaps yesterday's decent price recovery of 4p was due not only to shorts closing out but also due to Norges Bank having concluded their disposal of 747,452 shares.

- May be Norges Bank by-passed the market wholly or in part by selling some or all of the shares which they disposed of directly to one or more of the shorters.

Incidentally:

- As a consequence of the buy-backs there are now 144,905,096 shares in issue, as per OTB's RNS on 28 November 2025.

- Norges Bank holds manages Norway's huge sovereign fund.

I was watching OTB for a few months. Expecting that the 2024/25 full year results and the forecast for the current year being announced on Tuesday 2 December would exceed expectations, I bought shortly before the close on Monday 1 December. I paid about 191.5p. My aim was to make a short-term gain of 5% to 10% by the end of this week.

As other people have said here and on ADVFN's chatboard for OTB, the results and outlook were great.

On Tuesday, the day of the announcement, OTB peaked between 8:59 and 9 am when I could have sold at or just over 223. At 223 my overnight gain after transaction costs was about 15.75%.

At Tuesday's closing price of 216.5 (up 23.9p or 12.41% from Monday's close of 192.6) my overnight gain was about 12.3%.

Some people commenting here and on ADVFN yesterday (Wednesday) justifiably grumbled about the share price falling back. As DiggerDave said in his comment at 4:29 pm yesterday (3 December), it was disappointing to see OTB 3.3% down after being up yesterday morning. Indeed, when the price peaked just before 9 am yesterday the spread was about 222 to 223.

At today's closing price of 209 my gain is 8.5% which is in the upper half of my short-term gain target of 5% to 10% by the end of this week. Right now I intend to continue holding OTB until the end of this week and maybe even until early next week to see if it can get back to 220 and go even higher.

I could set up a stop-loss at a level which protects most of my gain which currently stands at 8.5% but I'm reluctant to do that. This is because I've been caught out to my detriment by stop-losses two or three times in the last 18 months. On each occasion the price dropped below the price which I'd set so the stop-loss was triggered, yet within about five minutes of the stop-loss sale the price had gone back above the price at which I'd set the stop-loss.

LemonTree1 -

Your comment at 23:07 today refers to 11 million shares "bucketed as a single UT (uncrossed trade"). For the avoidance of doubt, this was of course the normal 4:35 pm uncrossing trade which today involved 397,407 shares rather than 11 million shares as your comment seems to suggest. It is of course the value of this transaction which was 11 million, i.e. about £11m at today's closing price of 2720p.

It is helpful of London & South East to provide the approximate value of every trade.

With London & South East showing today's uncrossing trade and the later ones as sells and ADVFN showing them as buys, as you say one of them is clearly wrong in their BUY or SELL classification.

Several of Pavlar11's recent comments here, particularly the one at 10:23 on 26 November, show that he actively trades FRES and HOC (Hochschild) and maybe the shares of other precious metal miners' shares e.g. END [Endeavour]. His comment at 10:23 on 26 November said:

"My previous shares in FRES when PMS were at ATH have just broke even, but today this AM ended up buying HOC this morning got given quote for 368 sold for 373, however i did buy these on monday at 353 sold yesterday at 360. Got stuck in the wrong cycle for buying and selling these last 2 days, but cant time everything perfect. Do most people here buy and sell over 4-5 days or daily ?"

A month ago I began looking closely at the price fluctuations of gold and silver and in the shares of companies such as FRES, END, HOC and VALT [Valterra]. I decided to try trading them.

In one week from 21 to 28 November I made a gain of 14.52% (this includes some compounding) net of transaction costs by trading in FRE and HOC. This is how I did it (and times and prices are approximate):

Friday 21 November

The prices of gold and silver and of mining companies' shares had recently fallen. It seemed that they'd probably soon recover due to increasing expectations of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. I thought I'd try to profit from such a recovery so I started trading mining companies for the first time by buying FRES at 2287p.

Monday 24 November

Sold FRES at 2460p: net gain 7% after transaction costs.

Tuesday 25 November

12:30 pm: bought FRES at 2439p.

3:30 pm: sold FRES at 2493p - net gain 1.66%.

Wednesday 26 November

2:15 pm: bought HOC at 369p.

4:20 pm: sold HOC at 373.5p - net gain 0.78%.

Thursday 27 November

1:30pm - bought HOC at 376.9p.

Friday 28 November

1 pm: Decent profit on HOC on paper but I wasn't going to be able to watch prices for an hour so to avoid losing a lot of my gain if HOC fell a lot, I set a stop loss at 395.8.

1:35 pm: I thought that if HOC did drop to 395.8, it would probably recover quickly once the USA markets had woken up properly and the prices of gold and silver had risen to reflect increasing expectation of a December US interest rate so I decided to re-set the stop-loss lower to avoid a sale at 395.8 being triggered if the sell price fell only just under 396 for a short period.

As I began to re-set the stop loss HOC was dropping back towards 396. Due to an incoming phone call I wasn't quite fast enough to cancel the 395.8 stop-loss before it was triggered at 1:40 pm at just below 395.8.

By 1:50 pm HOC's sell price was back up to 397. At 2:24 pm it was briefly 401. HOC closed up 22.4 (5.89%) at 403.

Nevertheless, I was happy with overnight gain of 4.44%.

My comment on this chatboard at 21:43 today advised that THE SELL AND BUY CLASSIFICATIONS OF TRANSACTIONS IN ADVFN's AND L&SE's LISTS OF EACH DAY'S TRADES CAN BE UNRELIABLE. As an example, ADVFDN wrongly classified at least one of my FRES and HOC buys mentioned above as

I quote from LemonTree1's comment at 17:31 today:

"Lots of big sell trades in FRES at market close today so I can only guess £28+ is a new resistance level and now its probably time for the market to test the support level prices again".

Today's London and South East ("LSE") list of trades does indeed classify all the transactions following today's uncrossing trade for FRS as sells. However, ADVFN's list of trades shows these same transactions as buys. It seems that LemonTree1 looked at the LSE list so I assume that if they'd looked at ADVFN's list their comment at 17:31 would have said that there were lots of BUYS at the close.

I have three points:

- 1 - Both LSE and ADVFN use algorithms to classify each transaction as a sell, as a buy or, if the algorithms can't classify it as a sell or a buy, as a "don't know". LSE shows "don't know" transactions in black type rather than in red or blue type. In ADVFN's list of trades, a "don't know" transaction appears in the "don't know" column which is the one with a question mark at the top.

From time to time people say on the chatboards that ADVFN or, as the case may be, LSE have shown a transaction of theirs as a sell when in fact they'd bought, or vice versa. During the last year or so I've occasionally said in my comments on LSE, as indeed I'm doing in this one, that LSE haven't classified transactions of mine correctly.

Clearly, the LSE and ADVFN algorithms aren't foolproof. The key point is that as LSE's and ADVFN's transaction classifications aren't 100% accurate, you can't rely on them so you should take their designations of transactions as buys or sells a guide only and not as definitive.

- 2 - Obvioulsy the algorithms say whether a transaction at the mid price between the bid and the offer prices is a sell or a buy. Both LSE and ADVFN classify transactions at the mid price as "Don't know".

- 3 - As well as routine trades, LSE and ADVFN also classify, or perhaps I should say also seek to classify, every uncrossing trade as a sell or a buy (or as a "don't know" if the algorithms can't work it out). The price of the evening uncrossing trade is of course that day's closing price.

My understanding is that the computerised auction process which gives leads to the uncrossing trade involves matching pending buy orders and sell orders sitting in the order books in a manner which gets the largest possible number of shares to change hands. Accordingly, a company's evening uncrossing trade is in effect a group of simultaneous transactions between different sets of buyer/seller parties involving a mixture of a number of blocks of shares some of which were originally the subject of sell orders and some of which were originally the subject of buy orders. Even if my understanding of the uncrossing trade process isn't 100% right, surely an uncrossing trade isn't really a single trade so isn't it inappropriate for LSE and ADVFN to classify every uncrossing trade as a sell or as a buy?

Today's trading activity:

- From mid-morning the number of individual bargains surged. It was higher than on all but one of the trading days after Wednesday 12 November when the 2025/26 half year results were announced.

- Moreover, the number of individual bargains was significantly higher than on almost every other day after 12 November.

- The number of shares traded was significantly higher than on every day since Thursday 13 November.

- The closing price was between 2.5p and 3p higher than the prices of virtually all trades (both sales and purchases) which were transacted after 4 pm today. Apart from the few exceptions, all trades after 4pm were at between 407.5 and 408p.

VLX's worst close since 12 November was at 390 last Wednesday 26 November. Today's rise builds on the gains of 4.5p last Thursday and 2.5p on Friday.

As far as I'm aware, over the weekend, yesterday (Monday) and today there haven't been any broker or analyst comments nor any media articles concerning VLX, so does anybody know why the share price and trading activity both perked up a lot today? Has VLX been tipped or otherwise mentioned in a subscription-only tipsheet / newsletter?

If you look at my comments here on 5 and 19 November, you'll see that:

- I bought VLX before the 2024/25 interim results announcement in November 2024 and sold at loss after the adverse reaction to VLX's approach to takeTT Electronics over

- I bought again shortly before the 2024/25 final results announcement in June 2025 and sold for a good gain which was significantly higher in cash terms than my loss the previous November

- I missed the opportunity to sell at about 430 on the day of the 2025/26 interims announcement (Wednesday 12 November) because I got a bit greedy

- I could have got 426 or even 427 on Friday 14 November but I was greedy again and didn't sell

- On 19 November I said that I intended to sell if I could get something like 420 or 425.

At times during the afternoon of 20 November I could've got 420 or even 420.5 but I still didn't sell!! Perhaps I should've set up a limit order to trigger at 420. Until the recovery in the share price which began last Thursday, VLX had fallen steadliy since 20 November.

On 13 November two people commented on ADVFN's chatboard for VLX about the tendency for shares price to fall within a few days after results announcements and trading updates:

- at 08:38 rachael777 said "Volex holders doing what they always do - sell the news"

- at 08:46 dougmachin said "am slightly conscious of the Volex rise and then the dribble downwards"

According to an Alliance News item published on London and South East at 09:34 today Berenberg have increased their price target from 430 to 470 with a "buy" recommendation. On 13 November Jefferies had also increased their price target from 430 to 470 with a "buy" recommendation.

VLX hit a 52 week intra-day high of 434.5 a week ago on Wednesday 12 November when half year results were announced, closed last Friday at 428.5 but fell on Monday and yesterday, closing at 407.5 yesterday. Whilst the VLX share price does tend to dribble back after inititially rising on results announcements, the company's exposure to data centres might be a factor in the dip to 407.5 yesterday because tech shares have taken a bit of a battering in the last week or so due to fears about the bursting of the share price bubble of companies involved in artificial intelligence ("AI") who need more data centres to fuel their expansion. This is why there's going to be so much focus on Nvidia's forecast in their results which are to be announced later today. If AI doesn't grow as fast as expected, the demand for VLX's data cente products won't rise as fast as expected.

VLX has been up for most of today but on low volume. Between 11:20 and 11:25 they jumped 5p from 410.5 to 415.5 which is the high for today. Most of us take broker recommendations with pinch of salt, but maybe today's rise is linked to Berenberg's increased price target.

My most recent purchase was at just over 368 on 10 October in anticipation of the mid-October half year trading announcement and the half year results announcement last Wednesday 12 November when the price hit 430 but I got a bit greedy and didn't sell.

After the full year results announcement on 26 June 2025 the price fell back but it recovered during investor presentation by Lord Rothschild and his CFO the following day, Friday 27 Jun'25 so I was hoping that the price would recover to about 430 during and after their investor presentation last Friday (14 November) afternoon. Whilst it didn't hit 430, I could have sold for 426 or even 427 so again I got a bit greedy.

In my opinion VLX is a buy, and indeed probably a strong buy, but in the absence of any positive news or trading updates it'll probably dribble back for a while so if I sell I can try to redeploy my money elsewhere more profitably until I buy VLX again either shortly before the next trading update (presumably there'll be a full year trading update in early April 2026) or sooner if it begins to look too cheap.

My intention right now is to sell if I can get something like 420 or 425. A few minutes ago the spread was 412.5 to 413.5.

If I sell at 412.5 my gain (net of dealing expenses) would be about 12% in just under 5 weeks.

I came to the party late and bought in three tranches (see my comment at 15:27 on 3 November). At 7 am today it was announced that Permira have made a formal offer of 1340p which JCT's board have recommended. Right now JTC is down about 70p and the spread is about 1290 to 1292 so I'm down about 4% overall.

Let's see how much Warburg Pincus want JTC. Both parties' put-up-or-shut-up deadlines were extended last Friday (7 November) afternoon to 5 pm this coming Friday, 14 November. Will Warburg Pincus make a good counter-offer?

If Warburg Pincus walk away the share price might drop even more. I'm going to take the risk of continuing to hold in the hope that they do make a counter-offer. If they don't, the price will eventually will creep back up over the next nine or ten months. I probably wouldn't wait that long and instead I'd seek opportunties elsewhere for making faster gains and for recovering my loss on JTC rather than holding until the end of the takeover process which is expected to be in Q3 2026.

If I do hold until the end of process, at Permira's offer price I'll make a profit on my first tranche for which I paid about 1328p on 15 September 2025, I'll make a tiny profit after transaction costs on my second tranche for which I paid about 1244p, and I'll make a loss on my third tranche for which I paid about 1367p.

The put-up-or-shut-up deadline is 5 pm today. Usually extensions of these deadlines are announced via the RNS at about 7 am before the markets open.

If either the dialogue with Permira or the dialogue with Warburg Pincus has/have been continuing in earnest but more time is needed to try to reach a deal for JTC's board to recommend to shareholders, an application to the Takeover Panel for another extension of either or both potential bidders' deadlines would have been made within the last couple of days and there'd have been an announcement of an extension via RNS before the market opened this morning.

So far today it's been radio silence.

Do people on this chat board think that neither Permira nor Warburg Pincus has made an offer which is sufficiently attractive for the JTC board to recommend to shareholders?

- If so, are either or both predators going to announce that it is / they aren't going to make a formal takeover offer? Although the deadline for this is 5 pm, in these circumstances I'd have expected whoever is walking away to have announced this before the market opened to avoid a false market in JTC shares.

- Or if JTC's board hasn't warmed to either of the potential bidders' proposals, will either or both of them announce a hostile takeover offer? If this is the scenario why was there no announcement of one, or as the case may be two, hostile offers before the market opened?

I hope that the board is very close either to striking a deal with one of the potential bidders or to agreeing with both of them the basis of an auction for JTC.

Interim results will be announced at or just after 7 am next Wednesday 12 November.

Someone called "Gsei" suggests that there is a strong possibility of Volex making a counter-bid for TTG to rival Cicor's offer which TTG's board have recommended. This is what "Gsei" said on London and South East's chat page for TTG at 8:06 pm yesterday:

"RE: Takeover4 Nov 2025 20:06

@Travelwanderer the chances are quite big. Volex really wants TTG. With his ego hurt last year by the rejection of its offer, Nat (backed by DBAY) will come to the table with an offer between 158p - 163p.

I believe that 156p offer won't tickle the TTG shareholders enough to even consider it, as they believe that TTG will have a briter future with Cicor. So has to be around 160p mark to challenge the acceptance.

Another, somehow the offer will be rejected, Cicor will stop trying, share will go down to 80p mark and Volex will came as a 'saviour' wth 150p - 155p cash, backed by DBAY"

As you may be aware, in the last year or so Dbay Advisors Limited (as discretionary investment manager to DouglasBay Capital IV Fund LP) have built up a stake of about 16.5% in TTG.

Having bought Volex just before its interim results announcement on 15 November last year in expectation of very good figures (and they were very good), the shares dived due to its simultaneous announcement of its approach to take TTG over. Nearly 4 weeks later, on 12 December 2024, Volex made another announcement that it does not intend to make an offer for TTG. Its trading update on 27 January 2025 said that it had exited from its investment in TTG shares at a small profit after taking account of professional fees incurred in relation to its approach for TTG.

The announcement on 12 December 2024 included a statement from Lord Rothschild from which I quote:

"Volex remains resolutely disciplined in how it allocates capital and, applying that principle, we will not proceed with an offer for TT Electronics as it is now clear that the Board of TT Electronics is not willing to recommend an offer at a valuation that is also acceptable to Volex."

Do people agree with "Gsei" that the chances of VLX making a counter-bid for TTG are high? If VLX does make a counter-offer, what would be the effect on its share price?

By the way, after the large share price drop at the interims in November last year I sold at a 14.6% loss. Fortunately I more than recovered this due to a huge gain of 21.67% after buying back a much bigger quantity of VLX just before the full-year results announcement at the end of June 2025 - see my comment at 12:40 on 24 October 2025.

I first came across takeover interest in JTC at about 2 pm on Friday 12 September 2025 when the Hargreaves Lansdown FTSE250 leader board showed JTC up something like about 6% after a spike up at lunchtime. Whilst trying to find a reason for the rise on 12 September I discovered the two RNS's on 29 August about Permira's interest which had caused the shares to close up 174p at 1154p that day (29 August).

On 12 September I had to wait about 20 minutes to find out why JTC was up so much that day. An RNS at 2:25 pm gave the explanation. It announced firstly that Warburg Pincus had made three approaches concerning a possible all-cash offer and that JTC's board was in early-stage discussions with them, and secondly that they were also in early-stage discussions with Permira who had to make a fourth proposal before the board began to engage with them.

On Friday 12 September JTC reached 1384p which was a 52 week and a 5 year high, and they closed at 1360. I bought JTC cheaper than that on Monday 15 September for just over 1328.6p.

On Tuesday 21 October I bought more at just over 1338.4p.

On Thursday 23 October I bought again, this time at just over 1367p.

In the period from the announcement of a put-up-and-shut-up deadline extension to the new deadline, the target company's share price often treads water or even drops and, as you can see from the share price charts, this is what has been happening with JTC. Since I first bought on 15 September there've been lots of opportunities to buy at less than what I paid for my first batch that day. Indeed, at times it's been possible to buy at under 1300p.

I'm not at all worried that I paid about 1338p and about 1367p for my second and third batches.

About an hour ago I saw this comment from someone called gordongekko4 on ADVFN's chat page for JTC:

"03/11/2025 11:54:15

Permira will win this auction, likely at >1500 per share.

Their Bidco has already been incorporated (seach for Kant Bidco Limited on Companies House, incorporated on 30 October 2025).

Expect this deal to be announced this Friday.

You're welcome. gordongekko4"

I've done some research on the Companies House website. Some or all of Kant Bidco Ltd's directors are clearly very involved with UK-registered Permira entities.

Both potential bidders, Permira and Warurg Pincus, are very big US private equity / fund manager entities with very deep pockets. I'm certain that at least one of them wants JTC so much that it will make a formal offer at above the current share price.

Knowing how private equity funds operate, I'd be very surprised if both of them were to walk away. Indeed, if both of them want JTC enough there might be a takeover battle which will do wonders for the share price.

On 24 October the Takeover Panel gave extensions of the put-up-or-shut-deadline by which both Permira and Warburg Pincus have to either make a formal offer for JTC or walk away. The Takeover Panel had already given both potential bidders extensions of previous deadlines.

The current put-up-or-shut-up deadline for both potential bidders is 5 pm this Friday, 7 November. Both Permira and Warburg Pincus have now been in dialogue with JTC's directors long enough for them to know how much they need to offer to get JTC's directors to recommend any such offer to JTC shareholders so in my view it's unlikely that this deadline will be extended again.

Whilst the put-or-shut-up deadline is 5 pm on Friday 7 November, either Permira or Warburg Pincus might make a formal offer before then. Accordingly, it's unwise for anybody thinking of buying some JTC to wait until just before close of business on Thursday 6 November because if you do wait you might miss out on a significant share price gain if a formal bid is made before the deadline.

Last year there was a trading update in mid-October. Expecting another one this year and with half-year results being announced in November, I was hoping to buy at about 355p or less where the price had been during September but the price stayed above 360 so early on 10 October I bought some at just over 368p which was a fairly good price that day but curiously last week the price oscillated quite a lot and on 14 October VLX closed as low as 346.5.

There was indeed a trading update on 16 October which contained nothing adverse.

Late on 22 October someone called 768mdprvj4 added this comment to ADVFN's chatpage for VLX:

- "Volex's largest EV customer Tesla sold a record 500k vehicles in Q3"

This week the share price has moved steadily upwards. I hope this continues up to and including the day of the half-year results announcement on Wednesday 12 November. If the announcement is received well by the market, the price is likely to spike up nicely and to drop back in subsequent days. All being well I'll make a nice profit right after the half year results like I did at the time of the final results announcement in June this year. I'd also hoped to make a nice profit right after the half year announcement in November last year but in fact I lost money due to the announcement of the subsequently abandoned approach to take over TT Electronics. This is a quote from my comment on this chat page on 31 July 2025:

"- (1) Expecting last November's interim figures to be stellar and for the shares to spike up for a good quick profit I bought Volex at about 336.25p on 11th November 2024. With no sign of an immediate price recovery following the dive in the share price due to the 15th November announcement of the approach for TT Electronics, I eventually got out at 287.24p on 20th November. I lost more than 14.6%.

- (2) Seeing the steady improvement in the share price (apart from the big fall affecting most shares in early April due to concerns about the USA's tariff policy which turned out to be a blip from which the markets soon recovered) and expecting the full year results being announced on Thursday 26th June to be stellar I bought at about 316.25p on 25th June in the hope of a spike up for a good quick profit. On Friday 26th June I sold just under half of the shares which I'd bought for 384.16 and the remainder for 385.82. My profit in in two days was 21.67%.

- (3) Fortunately, second time around I bought about 40% more shares than I'd bought in November so the cash profit on my June trade was about 1.925 times, i.e. almost double, the amount of cash which I'd lost on my November trade .

The recent share price moves are interesting. Selected closing prices are:

- Friday 27 June, the day after the 2024-2025 results announcement: 389.0

- Thursday 3 July: 381.5

- Thursday 10 July: 379.5

- Friday 11 July: 367.5

- Wednesday 23 July: 355.0

- Friday 25 July: 369."

The business section on page 20 of the Daily Telegraph yesterday, Monday 25 August, had a report on the comments of OTB's chief executive. This might boost OTB's share price when the market opens later this morning, Tuesday, after the bank holiday weekend. I've quoted most of the report later in this comment.

Do people on here think that there's a read-across from what OTB's chief executive has said which might suggest that JET2's current trading is strong? If so, can we expect the Jet2 share price to get a boost today or in the next few days?

The report's headline is "Med holidays at a high despite lean times" and this is most of what it says:

"Cash-strapped Britons are putting costly purchases on hold to ensure they can still fund their summer break to the Med, a leading holiday operator has said. Shaun Morton, chief executive of [OTB], said the firm's summer bookings had climbed to record levels as low and middle-income earners use credit cards and cheaper airports instead of forgoing their summer break entirely.

" 'We know people are spending less on big ticket items such as cars, but that's not true of holidays,' he said. 'Whilst it's a big spend, it's not something that you can put off, like a new kitchen. If you want a holiday and don't do it this year, you don't have one'.

"[OTB] is Brtiatin's second-biggest online travel agent. Destinations such as Tunisia and Turkey, where accomodation costs less and the pound goes further, have seen a surge in demand, while a trend towards all-in package deals has continued unabated.

"A typical break with [OTB] costs about £700 per person, which if booked a year in advance with staggered payments 'can cost less than a gym membership' he said. Spending on holidays has risen almost every month for three years following a rebound since Covid despite a sluggish economy ... 'people are willing to forgo other items to fund their summer getaway' [Mr Morton added.

... [He also said] 'More people are also opting for packages, where everything is paid for, flexible payment plans and credit cards rather than debit cards.'

"[OTB], which offers 70m seats from the UK, ranks as Britain's fifth biggest travel agent overall behind Jet2, easyJet, tour operator TUI and online rival Loveholidays."

A couple pf minutes ago I added a comment almost identical to this one to London & South East's chat page for JET2.