Member Info for badjob

I'm underwater with this but certainly don't think it's a dog or I would have baled. If I didn't already have a large holding I would be buying more at this price. It's hard to time buys perfectly but I think this is undervalued relative to peers and assuming the underlying business performs as well as I think it will based on my sense of how well the shops are doing at the moment, I think it will bounce back quite strongly. Exactly when, I have no idea and there might well be bouts of weakness before it does. I hope everyone invested here does alright with it.

It feels odd that the share price has been under such pressure if that is really analysts expectations for profits etc. Outlook will probably be key to what happens tomorrow and hopefully some real positivity around holidays.

Also a long term holder but one whose value has dwindled so much that it's frankly not worth selling. Sold a chunk at around £4 some time ago but as I'd bought them at £28 (still don't know what on earth possessed me) that was nothing to celebrate. Gut feeling is that I don't see this recovering. The losses are breathtaking, the mistakes huge but I hope I'm wrong and the stopping of Shein's small deliveries makes a difference. I think it needs something dynamic in the market to happen as I'm not sure management has a clue. Debt is down but i think they sold off most of topshop to achieve that so not sure I can see anything very positive. Hard to know whether the CEO is to blame (he was previously CFO so probably) or whether the market for this sort of business is too difficult with some high quality competition to deal with. I really hope it massively surprises to the upside but it will a surprise for me if it does.

Next year profits are likely to rebound strongly. To my mind this dip is a buy opportunity as profits are likely to be on an upward trajectory as the effects of the cyber attack start to fade. The current price does not remotely reflect the value and power of the M&S brand Whilst short term price movements are impossible to predict, for the medium term holder, this feels like a decent buy opportunity.

Impossible share to sensibly value. Nearly £3bn of sales and market cap a fraction of that reflecting real concerns on its ability to survive. With refi suggesting materially improved survival prospects, it could be due a bit of a re-rating above even todays which is from such a low base. That said, I won't add to what has become a very small value holding. I probably would if I hadn't been so badly burnt on this before. I doubt though, given the refi, results will disappoint.

It's always a difficult one. His bonus and remuneration are strongly tied to performance and so he is already highly invested/motivated through that. More than most businesses, an airline can run into turbulence for reasons it can't control so it is not that surprising he wants to spread his investments more widely.

It might just be a hedge for another position if for example they are overweight the sector generally and they might then be ambivalent about the costs. If not, a lot of pain.

He probably needs to hand over his 49% stake. They are attacking the company because they can't directly get to him.

Why won't they suspend the next months' VAT as well pushing the company into serious negative cashflow. If the government are determined to bring them down, it will be hard to survive.

Trades at big discount to the sector and Paragon which I think is anomalous given the string capital position. Still, dividends are excellent and buyback more than 6% of market cap so happy to wait for a re rate if necessary.

The amount of the claim and the fact the state are pursuing it makes the dent in the share price seem inevitable. I am struggling though to see any evidence in the accounts of any income being reported other than relating to the iron ore and concentrate business and related logistics. However, as investors our information is limited and there may be defects in the licence that allow this claim and confidence in the impartiality of the Ukrainian courts is in short supply. I can't bring myself to sell the shares I have here as I suspect a deal will be done which preserves the company but I wouldn't buy if I didn't already have any. These are crazy numbers relative to the income the company generates.

Not sure I fully understand why this trades at such a discount to Paragon as the risk profile doesn't seem dissimilar. I would hope that the gap closes over time.

From what I can see of the judgements, even in an extreme case like the Johnson one where the commission was an eye watering 25%, the redress is limited to the commission - Ie the other payments under the agreement are not affected. The commissions are more typically in the 2 to 3% range but it seems likely that the failure to fully disclose those commissions could create a successful claim even in cases where the loan terms were competitive and the borrower would happily have taken the loan anyway. The banks will therefore be hit even where the lending was fair because of the lack of full disclosure. A nice windfall for some who had a competitive deal anyway. That probably does mean Lloyds will be closer to the £2bn liability level than the current provision but at least nothing like PPI. In theory the banks might be able to claw money back from the car dealers but probably not realistic in practice.

Cooban, at the margins I think it will be unhelpful but most professional landlords will cope and most now hold their properties in limited companies and so won't be immediately impacted by capital gains tax changes. I doubt any capital gains tax changes will just be aimed at buy to let and so other investments will also be less attractive. Undoubtedly some will sell up but that will raise rates and improve profitability for those that remain. It is still an asset class that a lot of people want to own.

Denby, unfortunately the quality of judges is pretty poor - certainly at lower levels. You pay a lot of money in court and lawyer fees but then the judge doesn't really understand the relevant law or even read the papers properly. No one really calls them to account and unless you have very deep pockets, there is little you can do about it. It's just incompetence and the fact that the lower courts are often staffed with failed solicitors and barristers.

Antony901 I suspect you are right about likely tax changes but it begs the question why Starmer thought it a good idea to create months of heightened concern leading up to the budget which can only be damaging for investment etc.

I suspect that this is a share where any positive surprise in the results could lead to some significant price increase which makes it an interesting punt and may encourage a bit of interest. Based on its past rather underwhelming performance, typically at the very bottom of any estimates, that kind of surprise is perhaps unlikely but you never know. It's certainly why I hang on to the relatively few I have left despite a nagging feeling this is more likely, ultimately, to go down than up.

PKS - how does taking down the price help to fill an order? Surely a lower price makes people less willing to sell.

SImon1367 - it's a good point you make that higher CGT will encourage people to hold onto their properties for longer rather than sell them and unlike shares, there is little opportunity before the budget to pre-empt things. My very misty crystal ball suggests Reeves will not got as far as some expect but wants the rumours to continue so that it looks as if we got off relatively lightly.

I think the selling is overdone here and have been adding a bit although that has not worked well so far. I think if Reeves has a big dig at capital gains it will make the sector a relatively poor investment for individual landlords with any yearly losses caused by lack of full interest relief and tenant problems etc not off-settable against capital gains which, of course, will only increase the damaging taxes on phantom profits. It is unlikely to affect those with properties in limited companies. If Reeves goes after them it will be carnage but that is surely pretty unlikely although the fear of it perhaps makes any progress in the share price difficult before the budget is out of the way. There are now adverts on the underground encouraging tenants to report bad landlords but no sympathy or support for landlords dealing with difficult/defaulting tenants. I think, though,that landlords are slowly getting better at dealing with that by being extremely careful about who they let to - ie those with good jobs etc who have a lot to lose from CCJ's against them. A falling interest rate environment should be generally supportive of the btl sector.