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Have picked up a few more to cover the recent dilution. Unfortunately, management have a record of disappointing the market with the last results quite dreadful. I think they have a big chance to create a much more positive narrative next week if the interim trading is more towards the top end of their indicated range rather than the bottom or lower. Any hint that the business is seeing recovery will likely lead to a strong move upwards. At this price, the upside potential feels worth taking a punt on but have to also recognise that that total loss is a very possible outcome here. Management have certainly not been tempted to invest heavily at these prices and their are probably people on here who hold more than the CEO.
Earning per share were 98p in 2018 pre-covid etc which shows the potential in the business if it is run properly and gets to grips with inventory and returns. Management has been dreadful. Hopefully it has learned from past mistakes.
Pokerchips, I think they were suggesting around £25m for those costs in the free cashflow for H2 of £125m. If they manage to achieve that with more to come, things could look a lot better but clearly, the market is sceptical. The existing major shareholders who took part in the capital raise must surely have some faith in the cashflow story but probably the last throw of the dice.
Chid I agree with a lot of that. I do though think there is a big difference between PPI and the timeshare stuff given the large undisclosed commissions on PPI. Unfortunately, this sort of stuff quickly becomes damaging to the economy because it makes banks much more reluctant to make loans. Surely someone who is buying a timeshare should be able to work out whether they can afford the loan or not. Madness. This is only the start I suspect with a huge and voracious claim industry looking to feed itself and the new 'consumer duty' will turbo charge it further. The claims companies will be rubbing their hands in anticipation - particularly if its like PPI where the banks bear the costs of every complaint good or bad.
I don't think it's so much about whether the CEO's days or numbered or whether the company's days are numbered. Having clearly wasted the last £500m they raised and ending up in a far weaker position, will this latest £75m lifeline be used any better. If not, the company could be toast and probably quite quickly. It has been very imprudently run and couldn't find an experienced CEO prepared to take it on. For now, I am hoping the CEO was being entirely truthful when he stated that the company would be highly cash generative in the second half of the year but the record is not great. Boohoo seems to have managed its cash and inventory far better.
Mountainous, I suspect they went for the fund raise now because leaving it means the company will continue to be dogged about a looming credit crunch which might ultimately damage the business and make it harder to focus on delivering profit. If they are strongly cash positive in half 2, which i think they will be as we are well into half two already and they seem confident, they could be looking in a very robust position when they next announce. I hope so anyway. The cash raise is clearly necessitated by appalling mis-management which is my only concern given that the CEO must bear a great part of the responsibility for that mis-management and seem very reluctant to commit to buying shares himself.
The board have little credibility having stated clearly a few days ago that no new capital was needed. Perhaps they felt they had no choice but it would have been better if they had lined the capital raise up before the results presentation at the then prevailing share price. Add on to that their demonstrable lack of personal belief/commitment demonstrated by their own miserly levels of holdings in the company with the CEO still selling shares recently at £5.59 per share. Whilst this gives the company a life-line and heads off risk of a collapse it is very hard to have any confidence in a board that has presided over this sort of collapse in a £4bn turnover company. Not so long ago, this company's shares were valued at over £4bn and yet now they are scraping around to raise £75m of equity. Pathetic.
Must have been in the works when CEO denied need for capital raise. Frankly rather dishonest. I don't know whether it will be positive or not for the shares but if the company needs to raise just £75m of equity in order to secure a facility with an interest rate of 11%, it's not the best statement of its financial health.
Market cap is currently under £450m. Can't see how anyone would be bidding at £3-4bn. Best hope for this share is that the business actually starts to generate profits and free cashflow as anticipated by the CEO.
As we are more than two months into the second half, I would have thought that the CEO would have been basing his projections for second half cashflow and profitability on what has happened in these 2 months. He was clear that his projections assumed no improvement in the current retail outlook. The commentary, may, therefore be over gloomy and drawing too much on the disappointing first half. One can but hope anyway.
A placing must be pretty unthinkable after the CEO has just given assurance that no cash raising was needed. That would be a big change of mind after just a few days. Having said that, the board should really come out and state that any rumours are unfounded assuming that is the case.
Agree LTI. Current share price is a reflection of sentiment around the UK in particular after Brexit which is seen as lowering UK growth prospects and government incompetence rather than disappointment with Lloyd's performance which has been pretty good. Price is much lower than at the height of PPI which is ridiculous . If it keeps paying out 10% plus in form of divis and buy-backs there will be a re-rating before too long. When the share price is this depressed, I see buy-backs as a good use of money
If they are in profit and have decent positive cashflow in the second half as they are projecting there is clearly a lot of upside. For the moment, the market doesn't seem willing to take that on trust after a first half at the bottom of expectations. My guess is that as a new CEO, he wanted to get as much bad news into the first half and his relatively upbeat comments about the second half suggest he is seeing some green shoots. Bold comments to make if he isn't.
Will be surprised if it goes much lower from here. A big turnover business that can quickly move into profit if it can improve margins. The risks are pretty well reflected in the price I think and it must be at or close to the point where the upside potential outweighs those risks.