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I think it depends on your buy in price. Lloyds was 80p in March 2014 despite the fact that its profits and return on tangible equity were materially lower than they are today. Underlying profits are £8.9bn pre-tax and its market cap is barely 4 times that despite a consensus in the markets that profits are likely to remain high. For whatever reason, investors are shunning UK focussed assets regardless of their cheapness - and these shares are cheap on any normal metrics. I think at the current share price, the dividends and buy-backs etc might be a decent return but taking a longer term horizon, these shares have been a disastrous investment notwithstanding the progress made by the bank. It is, though a brave call to sell out at the current low valuations and it has become a long waiting game for some of us. The bank is paying out more than 10% of its market cap, has good profitability prospects and yet the price still can find no momentum. I guess political instability, the constant fear of windfall taxes for any UK company that dares to make a significant profit and the idea that the UK is a bit of a basket case these days doesn't help with the investment case. I think a conservative government after 14 years has to ask itself why the UK is seen as such an unattractive proposition for most investors.
Cardinal -You could try that tactic but of course there is no guarantee what will happen to the share price but I agree a fall is likely with a significant divi. You will need around £2k of shares to create a £70 loss on the divi and then there's tax on the divi unless you are in the tax free dividend allowance. The form is actually not that hard to fill in if all you're putting in is some capital gains. I'm stuck with doing one every year.
Chid -if Putin has such overwhelming firepower, why is he resorting to rape, targeting of infrastructure and abduction of kids? He would surely just get on with winning the war. He's a sick pup and the best I think he can realistically hope for is a stalemate and a diminished and weakened Russia. I'm staggered at those who blame the US for Putin's aggression. Virtually all of the ex Soviet states (excluding Belarus - the leader not the people) most of which are now democracies of some sort despise Russia and want no part of it. That's Putin's problem and why, ultimately, he can't win.
Hard to see the price drifting much lower. NWG market cap now more than £1bn ahead of Barc. Suggests lack of confidence in the leadership here. CEO takes a remuneration package of £5.2m after presiding over the issuance fiasco showing a complete lack of accountability to shareholders. It's really 2 fingers up. I doubt his 'brilliant' leadership will ever add more value than that single loss has cost the company. I think the share price will pick up in the medium term either because there are no more serious lapses in governance to justify the continuing discount to other bank shares or because ultimately activist investors are likely to get on board to shake it up. It can't go on drifting given the huge potential in the underlying business. The return on tangible assets for the UK part of the bank was over 18% which is seriously impressive but shows the extent to which the investment bank can act as a drag. It has to get sorted at some point.
Ealham - if Lloyds can keep paying out over 10% in dividends and buy-back the share price will respond at some point. I don't think a buy-back is necessarily bad when the share price is in the doldrums as at present but would be very opposed if the share price was much higher. What I'm not sure of is where things will be after 2024 when they have reduced surplus capital and whether at that point returns will also reduce below current levels. Hopefully impairments will start to come down by that point.
Are they being deliberately cautious to avoid talk of a windfall tax? Would not surprise me. Would look bad to splash the cash until the economy is on a growth path whenever that might be - not that it stops Shell and BP but they are less under the control of HMG.
HSBC are significantly up (as I hoped this dog would be after results) given a more confident outlook and prospects for shareholder returns. Shareholder returns are the big lack here despite the low PE. Given the cancelled 6p covid dividend, the subsequent bank payouts to shareholders are really a disgrace. The mark down seems harsh but perhaps there is good reason for a lack of confidence that this share will ever properly reward shareholders as opposed to retaining cash to ensure a healthy bonus pot. Don't think I'm being over cynical.
It's always hard to second guess the shorters. They may just be hedging other parts of their portfolio - it's hard to tell whether they are real conviction shorts. I think Marks is a strong business these days but needs to either return to a decent dividend or show some serious profitability gains from all the amounts being invested in repositioning its stores and getting rid of the poorest performing properties to rerate materially higher against the pessimism hanging over UK PLC.
I increasingly wonder whether it might be time to consider breaking up the investment bank and the retail side. The most recent CEO's are from the investment banking side and I just don't think they have any real regard for the shareholders. I think their mentality is to regard the shareholders as a resource to be arbitraged and exploited for their own gain, there only to pick up the hits when profits are down so that they can keep their bonuses regardless of performance and be satisfied with a few crumbs when profits are good. It is noticeable that NWG, with significantly lower profits than Barclays is paying higher dividends and has a bigger buy-out in absolute terms. I'm not sure shareholders will ever receive the value from the retail side while it is under the control of the investment bankers.
Inflation buster I know there have been buy-backs but profits were £7bn post tax last year and more than £5bn this. Dividends are barely over £1bn and the buy back about £2bn from memory. Plus there was the 6p pre-pandemic dividend. I just can't see where the undistributed profits, which is most of them, are featuring. The shareholder payouts are pathetic when you compare with NWG which has significantly lower headline profits but now a greater market cap. I think we need an activist investor or two to shake the company board up.
All good points Reducer - and I'm speaking as a disappointed long term holder. A 7.5p dividend is less than 25% of its profits which is a ridiculously low pay rate. I do, though, struggle to see where the profits go. From what I can make of the numbers, CET 1 is lower than a year ago and tangible shareholders equity seems to be 46.7bn compared to 48bn a year ago so I'm genuinely baffled where the money goes as the banks assets seem to have deteriorated despite the profit. No doubt there is an explanation somewhere but I have no idea what it is.
Shocking results and the market cynicism over Barclays looks increasingly justified. Even at its current share price the dividend yield is only 4.3% which suggests the share price fall may not be overdone. Nothing good in these numbers and for a bank with a headline PE of a little over 5, the dividend is just not good enough. It is increasingly hard to see where shareholder returns are coming from with this company. As always, the investment bank exists primarily for the bankers with little cream for shareholders when it makes money but all the losses when it goes wrong. I don't know whether the £0.5bn of share buy-backs even cover new issuance. I was in a bit of denial as a long time holder here but can now see why NWG is given a much higher rating by the market. Simpler business which pays out its profits to shareholders.
Easier for HMG than actually resourcing the police to investigate and prosecute the scammers. Effectively treated as a non crime paid for by banks and their shareholders. Of course, banks should pay if their negligence has played a part in the loss but now it is just a free for all for scammers.
Just the beginning I fear. When the banks report mega profits during a cost of living crisis, the media will go crazy and no doubt Ed Milliband will suggest the windfall taxes so beloved by Labour. On the other hand, if the banks didn't make those profits the BOE would raise its eyebrows and order them to increase their buffers all over the place and ministers would talk about reckless behaviour. Lose lose situation which is why, I suspect, bank shares are struggling to rerate despite the relative health of the sector.
Billyboy - I don't think it will fall that much. I think the P/E at 28 was much lower than historically has been the case and already reflected reduced expectations. The top line growth should, at some point result in bottom line growth but there is no current visibility for that. Fevertree remains a premium brand that is still growing at a good rate. I think it will struggle to go higher until there is clear evidence of margin improvement but a fall to £6.18 for such a highly regarded brand seems unlikely to me.
I found the update disappointing. Yes, significant top line growth achieved and anticipated again for this year but profitability seems to be declining at a time when headwinds should have been starting to ease. I think increasing sales and reducing profits is not a great combination. Growth needs to reach the bottom line and there is no indication in this statement that it is going to at any point in the forseeable future. There are vague hopes expressed for 2024 but that's it. Other companies seem to be making strenuous efforts to address cost issues but as Fevertree outsources everything I guess it is much tougher. I still think this will come good as it is a superb brand but I think that will be over the much longer term now. It's pre-tax profit was over £70m in 2019 and for the current year to December 2023 it is predicting less than half that. It's hard to see that as anything other than highly negative in the absence of a clear strategy for sorting out the low margins.