Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
I suspect earning will be lacklustre but not in profit warning territory. They probably have a bit of control over how aggressively they decide to make provisions. Temptation must be to err on the prudent side as by reducing profits, that also reduces the spotlight on greedy banks at a time of hardship. I have thought for some time that the shares are priced for disappointment but, as always, they seem capable of going sharply lower on bad news and hardly moving on good.
Director purchases normally a good sign and good to see. I'm happy to lock in some 10% yield and agree with previous comments that the share price is more about the macro picture than company specific. The 10% yield isn't really an outlier but just a reflection of investor sentiment towards the UK at the moment. UK banks such as Lloyds and Barclays are also in that yield territory when you take into account the share buy-backs. Perhaps they are all going to collapse but personally I doubt it and am happy to pick up some more at these prices.
You are right Razzledaz. I think the other thing at play here is the large gap between tangible value and the share price. If tangible value was £40bn and market cap was half that at £20bn (not a million miles away from Barclays current position) and £2bn is spent on share buybacks, tangible value falls to £38bn and market cap to £18bn. That means the discount to tangible value increases from 50% to around 53%. The problem I guess is that the market doesn't think Barclays uses its capital very well - hence the size of the discount compared to other banks.
I think the returns on capital from the investment bank are relatively low compared to returns from the retail side which may affect the price to book comparison. Barclays view is that the diversity and therefore increased resilience that the investment bank adds to their overall business is a positive factor but that is not accepted by a lot of investors. Although a US based business, the investment bank is valued much more lowly than US equivalents. Perhaps that will change over time if the business continues to perform well and avoids any further mess ups..
Although cash generation maybe good in next update, big question is whether that is just down to running off surplus stock or whether ongoing operations are generating sustainable positive cashflow. Hopefully it will be the latter
Jcb - fair point but there are sectors such as tech which, whatever profits they make, never seem exposed to the risk of windfall taxes. I think, on balance, we are unlikely to see it in the UK because the banks have been paying higher rates of tax for many years but the risk is obviously enough to dampen sentiment.
This has just further highlighted the huge political risks surrounding the banking sector with calls for a windfall tax in the UK likely to grow louder.
TheReducer - whilst I think the stock is undervalued, I am certainly not one of those who has ever suggested it could hit £3 by the end of the year. If I didn't already hold it, I would certainly be buying at the current price but i totally understand the widespread disillusionment that surrounds the share although Lloyds is hardly doing much better even with the end to PPI etc which still strikes me as very odd.
TheReducer, do you really then believe that the current Barclays price is its fair value? Surely if you do believe that, given your negative views of the board (which I happen to share) you would sell. Continued holding surely only makes sense if you think the shares are good value. I am continuing to hold because I believe Barclays to be grossly undervalued and I think 11% pay-outs will eventually lead to a re-rating if they continue. UK banking shares have fallen and never recovered since Brexit and investors concerns about the effect that has had - rightly or wrongly - on the health of the UK economy.
Robina, I'm not so sure. An 11% payout, well covered by earnings, is pretty good. There is a massive negative sentiment over investing in the UK at the moment which i think is particularly reflected in bank shares as a proxy for the UK economy. We all know that a US bank producing these figures would be trading close to if not at net tangible value. Until sentiment in the UK generally improves, the payouts make these shares worth holding. Some would clearly prefer an 11% dividend and no buy-backs but I think the latter make sense given the discount to tangible value.
Agree. Half year pay-out including the buy back is approaching 5% but that is only enough it seems to move the share price downwards. Ultimately I think buy backs will improve the share price but with a half year profit of over £3bn I would have liked to see at least a 50% payout ratio to long suffering shareholders.
True atfab, bank shares are perhaps reflecting possibility of a recession but they were already pricing in a lot of bad news. Political risk is also heightened as the government lash out at everyone but themselves. It seems as if a P/E of 4-5 is now the expected level for UK bank shares. The only way to get out of that spiral is to increase shareholder pay-outs notwithstanding the likely calls for a windfall tax etc whenever bank shareholders get a decent pay out.
Underlying value is immense as you say but I have no idea on what basis the market ascribes value to bank shares anymore. I think Barclays share price has become detached from its underlying value but investors are in no rush to buy in because they don't expect it to rerate higher. At the moment we seem stuck with a share price in a P/E range of 4-5 and going nowhere. Even for a low growth business that is low and why, unlike many on here, I support share buy-backs at these prices.
Ab121 - I agree but this is a share that however lowly it is valued on any normal valuation metrics always seems capable of going sharply lower. It is probably more about investor perception of the UK than anything specific to the banks which churned out exceptional numbers in the first qt
Fundamentals have gone out of the window. It is an aversion to investing in the UK I think rather than Barclays as such. On any normal measures, discount to tangible assets and P/E etc this is priced for catastrophe. Even US regionals with significant existential risk have higher ratings. The tax increases, inflation, chaotic government etc not to mention Brexit make the UK look like a basket case to many. I had thought Barclays might do a bit better than the purely UK plays but there have a been a lot of recent staff losses in the US.
P/E is around 14 based on just the first quarter - under 4 if extrapolated out for the entire year. I'm not sure whether this is an attempt by the market to put a fair value on Barclays or a reflection of investors just shunning the UK regardless of cheapness. I suspect the latter. Even under fire US regional banks, where there has been a heightened risk of failure, trade on higher price to book ratios than Barclays. Hoping for a biggish dividend announcement at the half way mark to try to put some impetus into things.
Simon1367 you sum up reasons for my nervousness very well. Add on the lack of any serious buying of shares by the CEO as an additional warning signal because surely they would be filling their boots if they were convinced the business was on the cusp of a break out.
The current low share price, disappointing as it is, is a massive boost to the buy back. At some point it will be reflected in the share price and if that is not in the short term, then assuming the buy back is repeated or even increased for another 2 years or more, the market cap will begin to look ridiculous if there is not a commensurate increase in the share price. If the markets won't rate the shares, the best outcome for shareholders is that they throw out as much cash as they can on dividends and buy backs.
If the trading announcement is good, this could move significantly higher. I think it is priced for disappointment which, given the management's record to date, is fair. My guess is that profits/cashflow will be t the bottom end of the predicted range or worse. If the announcement was going to be more positive, I'm not sure why management would have rushed through the refinancing/equity raise on such poor terms. Hope I'm wrong.