Member Info for BacchusII

Europe is doing better than expected in preparation of gas in particular and winter may be better than forecast but if China shows signs of relaxing Covid restrictions 2023 may be a different story. The loss of Russian pipelines means a loss of a lot of volume, so a cold snap in the coming months would have a significant impact on the market and prices will spike again.

The likelihood of prices staying low is considerably less than an expected increase even if the Ukraine war finally ends. I would expect Europe and Ukraine to want reparations for Europe to return to a more normal relationship and to start importing commodities again in any quantity. I very much doubt these imports will be in same magnitude as before and Europe have pulled out of much of the Russian economy.

Harbour can ride out 6 years at the higher rate tax with good investment chicanery (perhaps getting some cheap assets from one of the majors) in the UK whilst benefiting from Mexico an Indonesia bearing fruit.

One snippet of excellent news on our overseas assets will propel the SP big time.

IMO of course :o)

Kign only put in the negative from the article, it also states:
However, it is encouraging that the government has included a significant investment incentive attached to the Levy, and that it has reduced the threat to energy security from early decommissioning by precluding this spend from generating relief.
The government has sought a delicate balance between:
i. Redistributing the benefit of extraordinary profits, which by its reckoning have not been the result of recent changes to risk taking, innovation or efficiency, rather an incidental surge in global commodity prices; and
ii. Safeguarding investment in the UK oil and gas sector. The introduction of further tax incentives on investment will be welcomed by companies that are already investing heavily in UK extraction.
While windfall taxes are rare and can potentially destabilise business confidence, government has been careful to reduce this risk as, although it is immediate, this tax remains prospective. Industry will also welcome the large investment incentive, meaning for every £1 invested in the UK oil and gas activities, over 91p will be received in tax relief across the three taxes, enabling industry to fulfil its intentions to invest in and secure vital energy supplies in the UK over the coming years.

From the sounds of some of the excellent posts on how things affects profit, Investors are making the same mistake as the General Public in knee jerk overreaction to news that is not as bad as the WT seems at first glance. Yes, it means HBR not making as much profit but it still will and has ways and means to reduce exposure.
I’m happy with all my share purchases especially those under 360 pence as we should see from a relatively quick recovery back to 380 pence in my opinion.
GLA

….doesn’t kick in until 1st January, so at lease higher returns for a month and a half. Every little helps!

Due the WT the shares are currently suffering and Taconic made a good call based solely, probably, on the tax coming into force. So now it makes sense that HBR need time to reassess investment going forward and how to offset some of that tax, which they will be able to.
Harbour is still going to make significant progress with increasing profit margins as some low Hedges unwind. There comes a point where Harbour is just too cheap sell even in the new climate.
Finding the Inflection Point is sometimes difficult and that’s why drip feeding can prove a good strategy. We are not going bust! Therefore, sellers will dry up and buyers will return.
My buying down has ended as I have invested at approximately 300 pence before and the business is still solid. I expect a gradual increase back to 400 pence and with very good results 500 pence or over.
GLA AIMHO

Funny, 10 days? The buyback has been going just 4 days. No logic there.

It’s also amazing how folks change their tune after buying.
Loaded up another 2,500 and 221 to round up my holding.

Shares in BP and Shell fell 0.6% and 0.3%.
Smaller oil and gas sector peers Harbour and EnQuest fared worse, losing 5.9% and 7.7%.
How this this justified…and the smaller companies have fallen greater in the run up.
Completely robbed.

At 315 pence buybacks will cancel 3% of equity.
Expect though more likely 2% once the $100million is spent.

Well played. Market is a fickle mistress. Lol.
GLA seems like these Bronze Tickets are going into a draw marked “Open in 2019!“.

Who are the “we“ certainly not you Smartie, you are not invested. You did well staying out of the shares and even when buying and then selling quickly to breakeven but I think you need to get with the program. The expected bad news was all in the SP but could have been worse. Slow steady climb back to 400 pence IMO.

Crikey, can’t buy any more otherwise might become a minority SH ;o)
Bought 1,500 yesterday at 333 and another 1,500 today at 329.19 pence plus bought 2,500 at 360 pence. Already hold a fair number at an average of 420 pence. However, had taken a lot off the table at much higher SP so still reasonably happy. If the WT had not been applied we would have been millionaire’s!

Smartie has FOMO

SP moving up yippee!

Up to 35% and extended to 2028

”Spooking the markets”
Harbour’s Market value has dropped by a £1billion, I’m pretty spooked out!

During the oil price crash, there were a lot of smaller oil companies that either merged, went out of business or only just managed to stay afloat with more investors money. NO government help! The oil majors had their issues but size and diversification matters. Investors are not going to interested in bank rolling the UK oil market if the tax regime does not allow substantial profits when a company does well, like when they make a discovery.
If the tax is hiked to 35% making a total of 70% this WILL damage future investment. If the UK government do this they are simply reacting to what the oil majors are making in profit NOT the smaller companies including Harbour Energy.
GLA around 11am for news!

The global oil market remains tight according to Saudi Aramco, the largest oil producer in the world. And that does not bode well for a world that still relies heavily on fossil fuels.

“Today there is spare capacity that is extremely low,” Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser says at a conference in London. “If China opens up, economy starts improving or the aviation industry starts asking for more jet fuel, you will erode this spare capacity.”

Nasser warns that oil prices could quickly spike — again.

“When you erode that spare capacity the world should be worried. There will be no space for any hiccup — any interruption, any unforeseen events anywhere around the world.”

Another 1,500 at 333 pence and expecting them to [eventually] go to 666 pence.
Will wait and see if SP falls again tomorrow before using entire cash surplus. WT or watered down or no increase I expect a good return over the long run. Under 400 pence is the result of government hot heads who will cite public opinion if (when) in future the UK tax receipts collapse due to lack of investment and everyone’s bills get more expensive not less due to lack of energy security. Putting a CAP on what everyone pays is not a good policy as it does not make folks save energy in a time of global warming this is madness. I have not yet put my heating on in a 3 bed detached house, although recognise some people have to for various reasons.
GLA tomorrow!

Obsolete: Don’t forget you have now received two dividend payments and more will follow. Money in the bank would have got you less. Therefore, still a solid investment especially with the fundamentals. Shame about the WT but his is only being applied to O&G profits because the public perceived correlation to excessive profits. Other commodities, banks, etc. that are raking in cash don’t have the emotional draw. It’s right that completely excessive profits are taxed but not good the government is thinking about over taxing companies that are mostly UK producing.