Member Info for B2HS2L

"We continue to do this and we are building the foundations for a significant diagnostics business by ensuring we deliver performance, create expectations that can be realised and not to ramp the business."

This is the sentence from the email previously referred to, that for me dictates the background to any forward looking statement(s) that is/are made in the next few months.

We shareholders have come to expect that GM's timescales for delivery of projects are largely accurate, - pretty much you can take them to the bank (unlike AVCT).

I'm sure people like DHSC, PHE, other customers etc are grateful for this accuracy.

There have been projects we did not know existed, and suddenly they are unveiled, or about to be launched, but only when GM is satisfied the 'available from' date is accurate.

I'm fairly sure the end date of some projects is difficult to ascertain, so GM has preferred to say nothing.

Using Chartwell Consultants helps to keep delivery dates for projects on target, but there is no point in disappointing customers (and shareholders) when it's not necessary.

I have accepted this is the way it is when anyone invests in NCYT, - it's GM's way.

It means I'm sometimes a mushroom, and I deal with it, but it's not to every investors liking.

IMO this response from Graham IS genuine, but each must be guided by there own beliefs:

31.01.2021 - email from GM to LSE poster RBMInvest ref End of year update (29.01.2021) and subsequent 17% share drop
Hi R

Thank you for your email below and I certainly recognise some of the monikers at the bottom of your email although I try to refrain from reading the forums these days.

Novacyt has come (very quickly) from humble beginnings and as CEO I have tried to position the business in very difficult times to focus on delivery, not on hype. We continue to do this and we are building the foundations for a significant diagnostics business by ensuring we deliver performance, create expectations that can be realised and not to ramp the business. I know many companies that may have a different philosophy but in my experience hype without substance will always end up in misery.

I understand completely the balance between regulatory reporting and the PR for investors. We will never satisfy the latter but I can assure you we will always comply with the former.

The RNS Friday was a Trading Update. It was not meant to provide an operational review and certainly is not the platform to discuss future strategy. When we are ready to reveal this we will do so along with the usual R&D updates, product launches and other significant news.

However, at the end of the day with a 17% drop in SP despite our FY2020 performance means something can certainly be improved. However, it is not just a question of communication/PR. The issue is how to reconcile protecting its competitive position whilst trying to satisfy a largely retail shareholder base some of whom are watching daily, hourly movements in share price across two trading platforms. An interesting challenge and one that is not easily resolved. Can we improve communications? Yes and we will do so in time but not without ensuring the business continues to delivers first.

Believe me the constraints we operate under particularly on AIM are frustrating at times. Whilst IMO our position on comms remains the right one from many different perspectives I totally understand this does not help us whilst we have such a large disparate group of shareholders and we continue to trade on junior platforms. That said, we may not always have this balance right and you can be assured as we grow there will be more resource ploughed into communications/PR but actually marketing as a whole.

Nobody knows how long the current window of opportunity will stay open for but my personal focus is to maximize this to the benefit of the Company today so we can build the foundations to deliver a post-COVID exciting diagnostics company. When we are ready this will be revealed including our organic and inorganic investment plans.

I really appreciate the support Novacyt receives and with this support we will continue to try to do the right thing during our growth journey.

Thanks again,

Graham

Oriens -
"GM said he can't give any guidance to future earnings! That to me was an extremely poor thing to say "
To be honest I can see him either saying it again or saying absolutely nothing about future earnings.
We know GM hates hype, in the past he has said - in response to a question poster RBM invest sent to GM on behalf of many LSE NCYT BB posters in 2020:
"Novacyt has come (very quickly) from humble beginnings and as CEO I have tried to position the business in very difficult times to focus on delivery, not on hype. We continue to do this and we are building the foundations for a significant diagnostics business by ensuring we deliver performance, create expectations that can be realised and not to ramp the business. I know many companies that may have a different philosophy but in my experience hype without substance will always end up in misery."

If he stands by previous comments, - this is why future earnings won't be updated.
+
Actually I have the entire response, so I'll post it next

There has been a lot of discussion about how much of the private testing market has been captured with Promate, Versalab and now Versalab portable.

When rereading recent RNS's - this statement caught my eye:

From 24 February 2021 RNS

"The new COVID-HT Direct test eliminates the need for automated extraction systems in a high-volume PCR laboratory, reducing processing time, cost and labour of testing by up to 30%.
COVID-HT Direct is already in use at one of the UK's Lighthouse laboratories and is being validated for use with private high-throughput PCR laboratory partners."

We knew about use in Cambridge lighthouse lab in the last line, but I seem to have overlooked the "being validated for use with private high-throughput PCR laboratory partners."

Pages 31-33 of the spreadsheet show Private testing companies using Novacyt test kits.
So are they ALL the 'high-throughput PCR laboratory partners' implied, - perhaps not but many are.

At 1536 tests per kit, we don't need many 'partners' enjoying 'reduced processing time, cost and labour of testing by up to 30%' before we are making profits - yet this statement has not to my knowledge been highlighted on this board since February, but plenty about mobile testing.

From the September 28th Contract, phase 2 would have included weekly supply of the Covid-HT (contract page6).
So it is just possible Covid-HT direct is being supplied via the new framework.

Page 11 of the spreadsheet displays :
Private Labs - NHS Work . A number of private labs are supporting their local health authorities, including Cambridge Clinical Labs & Nationwide Pathology (Surge testing is likely to utilise spare capacity in the private sector)

I'll be looking out for mention of a significant contribution from Covid-HT direct in future trading updates.

WHO labels and Greek Alphabet usage:
https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/ updated 31 May 2021

It seems that the New Variant Assessment Programme (NVAP) is the virus sequencing assistance that countries like Nepal need.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-variant-assessment-programme?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_source=91cff3a8-66dc-4857-89d0-85be91dc181f&utm_content=immediately

Overview
The platform has been set up by Public Health England (PHE) and aims to deploy the UK’s unique sequencing and virus assessment capabilities to help other countries respond to coronavirus (COVID-19) and strengthen global health security.

The detection and subsequent assessment of variants of SARS-CoV-2 for potential impact on viral characteristics (for example in virulence or transmission) and countermeasures (such as diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics) is critical to implement timely public health measures.

The UK has large-scale sequencing capacity and extensive specialist expertise and is uniquely positioned to help address global sequencing capability gaps. Through the NVAP programme, PHE will work to support global partners to strengthen their genomic sequencing capability, either by building on existing infrastructure or by conducting sequencing and analysis of samples in the UK if there is no in-country capability.

Sorry if this has been posted already.
Daily Mail alert. -
Everest climbers could have spread 'potentially more infectious AND vaccine resistant' Nepal Covid variant across the world after it was first found in THIRTEEN travelers on flights from Himalaya to Japan
EXCLUSIVE: Sources said the mutant strain was detected in at least 43 Britons
It is closely related to the Indian variant, they said, but has new mutations
As many as 13 travellers from Japan have been spotted carrying the new strain

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9647331/Nepal-Covid-variant-20-Britons-mutated-version-Indian-strain.html

Dr Jeffrey Barrett, a director at the UK's largest Covid surveillance centre the Wellcome Sanger Institute, revealed today that the strain had been spotted in Japanese travellers returning from Nepal.

'There have been 91 sequences observed of the (new variant), with an additional mutation: K417N,' he said.

'This mutation is present in B.1.351 / Beta, and is believed to be part of why that variant is less well neutralised by vaccines.

'Because of this possibility, and because Delta appears more transmissible than Beta, scientists are monitoring it carefully.

'This Delta+K417N has been seen in numerous countries, including the UK, Portugal, the USA, and India.

'It has also been observed once in Nepal (which does very little sequencing), and 14 times in Japan, of which 13 are samples from airport quarantine from travellers from Nepal.'

https://apnews.com/article/world-news-genetics-coronavirus-pandemic-genomics-e5f50c12490c7935d6757a96103ceab6

This report a little dated now, but much good work done by Prof Pea****, and report does not feature in the spreadsheet.

Hi Shaun,

With all the recruitment and R&D spend recently, do you think the M&A GM has referred to in the past will not take place, or be limited to small scale M&A.
I was thinking that it was time for Novacyt to get into transplants, which is what they have previously stated, but it remains to be seen how full of Covid-19 patients the hospitals become in future.
This will also depend on how many escape variants occur before future booster jabs are available.

There probably is less money available for M&A than they would like, but I think they need to make a start on transplants soon.

From RNS 17.09.2020

Strategy update highlights
• New strategy to focus on organic, R&D and acquisitive growth in the respiratory and transplant bacterial and viral diagnostic markets
• Investment in R&D and commercial infrastructure to deliver new products and establish a direct sales force in key markets in the US and across Europe
• Selective product/technology and company acquisitions to generate additional revenues and profits to offset potential future reductions in COVID-19 revenues and enhance the Group's trajectory towards becoming a market leader in respiratory and transplant clinical diagnostics
• Acquisition of specific assets to enable Novacyt to expand its core capabilities whilst maintaining attractive margins
• Investment in developing new IP portfolio to enhance and secure future value

Outlook
Novacyt's near-term focus is to deliver strong organic revenue growth in the core business, where the Directors believe demand for its products will continue to grow into at least H1 2021 as COVID-19 testing continues. In the medium-term, Novacyt expects to leverage its reputation, market intelligence and relationships developed during the COVID-19 response to commercialise new products, as well as expand its presence in respiratory and transplant clinical diagnostics, to meet significant unmet market needs. The Directors expect to supplement the Company's product portfolio and expand its core capabilities through executing selective and accretive M&A at the right time.

The Directors reiterate guidance announced on 13 July 2020; given the visibility of orders, extended contracts and the launch of new COVID-19 related products, revenue for the second half of the year is expected to be greater than the first half of the year and margins to be at least at a similar level. Full year revenues are expected to exceed €150 million and EBITDA profitability to exceed €100 million. The Company expects this rate of financial performance to extend into the first half of 2021. The Directors remain confident in and excited by the prospects of the business, not only for the short-term, but also for the longer-term.

Agreed Bluelight -

Another bullish indicator is the short reductions, - must soon be time to buy surely.

A number of different company valuation methods expressed in this document, thought to date from 2017.
Posted for those who love to at least try to value stuff:
https://www.fulcrum.com/medicaldevice_appraisal/

Wilson -
Messerschmitt Bubble car for me.

Saintsmith -
I think your salary estimate is about right, but GM will have provided significant motivation to earn more.

Kevin doesn't have to learn new skills to achieve what GM wants, just implement what he has already proven successful.

I could not hazard a guess as to how many staff Guillermo & Kevin are looking for, but the timing is significant.

Kevin hasn't allowed himself to be head hunted with just the one PCR FDA EUA approval to sell, though Kevin must agree the SNPsig portfolio and LFT's looks promising.

There has to be a number of products awaiting FDA approval.

For me it is significant that Novacyt has hired a very large number of people when you take the size of the original company on board, and looks like more to come in USA.

So IMO the cash is being generated to support all this growth, and the cost of much recent R&D.

We may have no DHSC pt2 contract, but we must have signed a number of supply contracts with foreign health authorities.

Many sales staff in Cepheid and Grifols are about to get head-hunted / approached, - all familiar with Kevin's approach to sales?

Kevin Crittenton:

From his linked In experience. Note he says 'was recruited into Cepheid' and earlier employment - head hunted.
We need lots more Kevins in South America:

GRIFOLS:
Head of North American BTS Sales ? Leading the entry into the North American market
Company Name Grifols Full-time
Dates Employed 2015 – May 2021
Employment Duration 6 yrs
Location Emeryville, CA
In 2015 I was recruited to Grifols, a €4B global healthcare company, to lead its entry into the North American market and scale up the organization. Key to this effort was establishing the immunohematology blood transfusion business unit.

SELECTED HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS

? Significantly grew the customer base and key client partnerships, with current on-target growth to double customers in the next 30 months.

? Defined the organizational structure for the sales team, including compensation plans and sales processes, scaling from one to three regions.

? Established the sales organization from the ground up, including all infrastructure, people, and processes, along with a 15-year roadmap to achieve a #1 market share position.

? Maintained progress to the North American roadmap, increasing market share.

? Responsible for the P&L for the business unit, with ownership for KPI attainment for revenue, cost budgeting, and forecasting.

CEPHEID:
Sr. Global Marketing Manager ? Managed the $165M Global Healthcare Associate Infections
Company NameCepheid Full-time
Dates Employed2013 – 2015
Employment Duration2 yrs
LocationSunnyvale, CA
Recruited to Cepheid in 2013 to take over global Healthcare Associate Infections (HAI) operations, a $164M global business, and held complete accountability for product development of global commercial product launches for CE and US IVD kits.

Kevin Crittenton - Sales and Marketing Executive
Vice President,
General Manager, Americas
Leading the Novacyt Group entry & scaling into the Americas markets
San Diego County, California, United States

Note Americas, not America, - IMO this is for North and South America, so his San Diego base is a good start.

I could not find what languages Kevin speaks, but as he worked for a Spanish based company, he may speak Spanish.
I have been to San Diego, and there is a very high percentage of Mexicans in the area, so Spanish would be a good language to learn for someone in sales.
(I found this on the Grifol website:
As of December 31, Grifols had a pool of 23,655 employees.
Nearly 4,300 people work in Spain, more than 16,600 in the U.S. and 2,760 in other countries where
the company is present (ROW).)
I did not see the position advertised, but he might have been head hunted, or Guillermo may have been actively recruiting him. He may be someone known to GM, but whichever, he is a class recruit.

Hiring Kevin, is to me a very good sign that the company is not waiting for a predator to finish negotiations, or complete due diligence, because hiring someone as critical to future success as Kevin would be a job for the purchaser, and only when the predator was ready for a US launch.

So for me - no, a buyer is not on the horizon.

bladesharp - you beauty!

Kevin Crittenton - Sales and Marketing Executive
Vice President,
General Manager, Americas

Leading the Novacyt Group entry & scaling into the Americas markets
San Diego County, California, United States

I wondered if he left (Spanish company) Grifols because the company was finding it difficult to find traction / too expensive to crack the US market.

Not so - Griflols has 11 vacancies in USA at present!

Overview
Grifols is a global healthcare company which, since its foundation in Barcelona in 1909, has been working to improve the health and well-being of people all over the world. Our four divisions - Bioscience, Diagnostic, Hospital and Bio Supplies - develop, produce and market innovative medicines, solutions and services in more than 100 countries and regions.

As a pioneer in the blood products industry, we are one of the largest plasma companies, with a growing network of donation centers around the world. With the plasma we obtain, we produce essential medicines to treat chronic, rare and sometimes life-threatening diseases. As a recognized leader in transfusion medicine, we have a comprehensive portfolio of solutions designed to ensure safety from donation to transfusion. In addition, we provide hospitals, pharmacies and healthcare professionals with diagnostic tools and services that help improve the detection and treatment of diseases, promoting specialized and efficient care.

Our commitment to science and people drives us day after day to continue innovating and exploring the potential of plasma treatments to respond to the main health challenges facing our society.

With a workforce of over 24,000 employees in more than 30 countries and regions, Grifols is committed to a sustainable business model and is a pioneer in continuous innovation, quality, safety and ethical leadership in the healthcare sector. Our work has a positive social and economic impact in the countries where we operate, creating jobs and generating wealth.

Kevin lists the following as one of his interests:

Medical Devices Startups
Listed group
75,535 members

About this group
Medical Devices Startups is a group for those interested in startups in the Medical Devices industry.

Tags: Entrepreneur, Startups, Medical Devices Startups, Venture Capital, Engineers, Investment, Investors, Funding, VC, Angel Investor, Private Equity, Investment, Start Up, Technology Startups

++++

Excellent work bladesharp.

Guillermo speaks Spanish (I believe), lets hope Kevin also does, - to so that communication in South America (vast market) is not a problem.

If you are a long term holder, my point of view is for you to consider.
If you are waiting for Novacyt to receive a bid, or a shorter term holder, the circumstance I have described is also worthy of consideration, because if I'm right, you might find yourself becoming a longer term holder by default when no bids arrive.
After all, other M&A activity is evident, why should Novacyt not be a target?
Novacyt may be somebodies target, but it will not be a well defined target by anyone financially, and there is still the matter of the two government policies, - that protect strategic assets, - to be considered.

https://www.skadden.com/insights/publications/2020/05/france-moves-to-protect-strategic-assets

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-protections-for-uk-businesses-key-to-national-security-and-fight-against-coronavirus

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/enterprise-act-2002-guidance-on-changes-to-the-turnover-and-share-of-supply-tests-for-mergers-orders-2020

.....There again, a decent enough bid might occur tomorrow.

Morningsun -

'any really interested companies would see past this issue and not be fooled by it', - yes that is so, but GM has made sure that bar Annual and half year reports, there are no sales or revs data.
Resorting to Shauns spreadsheet, - (it is an open secret that it exists and is very comprehensive), - is great but doesn't reveal those missing numbers.
Better to wait until end of June, - see if any M&A activity occurs beforehand, and listen in to the future plans of the BoD, - or as much as they are willing to reveal. - Recall we have had one or two products launched that were a complete surprise.

By then there may be approval from the FDA on a few products, - nobody knows.

GM has RNS'd on a couple of occasions that NCYT has registered patents and trade names, (like after IT-IS was purchased), and I am sure that is so that the value of all product patents and trade names are available when it comes to the time when a valuation is required.

Any predator can only guess at the full value of the company, and that's likely the way GM wants it.

The longer this dispute is active, the closer to Mid-Cap status Novacyt becomes, without a sound bid he feels he must notify to shareholders being made.

There again, a decent enough bid might occur tomorrow.
GLAH

Larry10, - thank you for confirming more than one source for this story today.

LARRY 10,
1 https://bourse.challenges.fr/ is the source for this story.
Can you vouch for 'Challenges' being normally a good source for the stories it prints please.
I've never heard of it.