Demand Destruction2 Oct 2021 12:47
Someone asked about demand destruction a few days ago following a post I made. I notice Block have now posted on Twitter a reference to this subject too: https://twitter.com/BlockEnergyplc/status/1443174147660689418
Demand destruction is a worry, creates a bull market, but in the longer term the effect will bring the price[s] down driven by reduced demands induced by prolonged periods of high prices in parallel driven by consumer spending behaviour.
Demand destruction can evidence through reduced fuel consumption combined with reduced disposable income, both currently evident in the fragile economy. Increased pressure from higher energy (oil & gas) will drive the destruction further as consumers look for alternatives (improved fuel economy, electric vehicles, hydrogen and so on) to avoid impact to disposable incomes suffered from increased prices.
On that basis, and assuming successful results, I would expect a temporary price rise which then settles somewhere in the region of 5.5 to 6p. I cannot see a multibag, despite all the excited posting, however, given we are going into winter with increased gas demands the price may explore 7p and more, depending on demand and routes to market.
This is a tough one to call, hence the lack of any real movement. A lot of factors at play here, notwithstanding the CEO lack of credibility but also geo-politics, wider economics and supply infrastructure. Would be fantastic to see 10p but that is purely fanciful territory in my opinion, however if it does see that I, along with many others, would be very happy.