RE: Some Block research for those interested.23 Apr 2024 14:51
well said kilgeever ‘wise not to run too soon.’, but good to see the price steadily increasing towards 2p. iirc, tennyson proposed a fair valuation at 4p, with a total nav of 18.4p/share not including contingent resources, or exploration in oct 23. would be good to see recovery and stabilisation to 4p or even 18p.
in response to my questions grower69, thank you for the links, but the top 10 companies listed mainly refer to airborne carbon capture which, i understand, is not what is proposed as block mention water injection. typically water 20 tonnes of water is required to dissolve 1 tonne of co2, which will require some form of energy & associated cost to operate.
block have confirmed 256mt (patardzeuli reservoir) ccs which is good, the company mention world class, which it is, but to put into context, at 256mt that is just over 6% of the worlds (anthropogenic) current annual co2 emissions. there are larger opportunities elsewhere.
the 8.7gt (block xib/f estimate) storage is based on the basin-sink. to understand that requires understanding “basin-sink”, ie, how permeable, stable and similar (****geneous) the mineralogy is. block does not know this, hence the estimated figure and can only be confirmed by drilling (over 1km) and developing the reservoir. how many drills will be required? who will drill? what cost? importantly, what value does this estimate provide? after all, it’s an educated estimate but even at 10% equates to 870mt.
an example, talos energy sold its ccs subsidiary to totalenergies in a deal valued at $148m, included in the transaction one of the largest ccs portfolios in the usa, with an estimated total potential storage capacity of 1.7gt. block has 5 times greater estimated assuming the basin-sink can accommodate 8.7gt.
a good/great opportunity, obviously until associated costs are understood it’s difficult to determine an accurate valuation. the use of prof oelkers helps, an outstanding geologist (h-index 90; 60 index is exceptional) so his involvement and any report will underpin the narrative.
not forgetting the oil, with nav $500m which can easily be connected to the scp as i mentioned previously. i note cnpc are involved in azerbaijan where the scp originates, would be an easy decision to acquire, particularly given their increasing presence in georgia.
given tennyson’s 18p based on not including contingent resources, or exploration, it must be safe to assume this price will be surpassed with news, but i still think mid-may based on farm-out announcement.