Member Info for AVCT

@JT

PS I have my own views on what we may hear shortly from the FDA on STS.

If that news arrives too, should be positive.

The lasting financial benefit will arise when a third party starts validating our IP with commercial deals involving the suitably sized upfront cash that we need.

@JT I'm a fan of AVCT and have been invested for years, waiting patiently for commercialisation.

I know, as you say, that their IP has far far more potential than most other biotechs not least because they own two platforms that might end up being widely applied in a number of different potential commercial models.

What annoys me - as I think it's ultimately counterproductive, especially from those who know better, is selective analysis/comparison such as "all nasdaq phase1/2 biotech are valued 6 times higher than AVCT."

I am well aware of the AVCT release in January - all those who follow "knows" "it works". But as far as the wider market is concerned P1 is yet to be completed and full Big Pharma friendly data is still to be released ( imminently ).

One such selective fact not mentioned is that at the relevant time prior to results NUVL had something like $ 400m cash on hand multi year runway. While AVCT don't.

I agree the rise after NUVL results was 50-80% not the 6x alluded to by others.

I agree as companies progress their candidates through advancing phases of trials, in the absence of scientific setbacks, one would expect the market value to also advance yet. AVCT aren't there yet.

I wasn't going to post this as I don't particularily enjoy abuse and don't think AVCT will do this, as I believe they are working on other non dilutive methods.

However it has gone unreported that the first thing NUVL did after their trial results release was a $300m raise to top their cash runway up to 3 years. It's the way the US markets work as they have the depths of liquidity we don't have in the UK.

Good luck to us all on Wednesday.

@JT " If we compare Avacta to they US-listed equivalents, we are drastically under-priced."

While UK market luquidity is crap, a proper comparison of Nuvalent $NUVL for example and their MV prior to releasing their phase I data, in 2022 I think it was, there wasn't actually that great a disparity in valuations allowing for different times/ market conditions and cash runways.

Certainly much closer comparison than some like to think, or say.

Personally I can't see punters as large sellers just at the moment.

Heights could have had 8m + shares to shift if they wanted to plus a further 1m plus short undetected.

Remember they paid for a wedge when moving on part of a conversion when shares were at 180.

So who might be selling if it's not Heights ?

Nope

Under the terms of the agreement, Avidity will receive $100 million upfront, which includes a $60 million cash payment as well as the purchase of approximately $40 million of Avidity common stock at a purchase price of $7.88 per share. Avidity is also eligible to receive up to approximately $1.35 billion in research and development milestone payments, up to approximately $825 million in commercial milestone payments, and tiered royalties up to low double-digits on net sales. Bristol Myers Squibb will fund all future clinical development, regulatory and commercialization activities coming from this collaboration.

Most are hopeing AVCT will manage a better deal!

The only party in a unique situation is Heights - so what O is alluding to is don't be suprised if you see a placinģ after the P1a update. Don't know why he doesn't just say.

"Poor markets" and 16% gearing not a good combination

What would your speculation be for the timing of breakthrough if forthcoming JV ?

Beginning of 2 week study - end of 2 week study ?

Ta

"if the fortnightly study is to run "in parallel" with C7, the FDA better get a move"

I'm now taking "in parallel" to mean that C7 patients will continue to receive dosing after the end of P1a - at the same time as the 2week dosing study runs.

Seems an obvious interpretation now, but less so at the time of statement on 19th september.

Having said what he's said i don't think AS can afford to delay P1a data beyond Q4 even for a prestigeous event.

"So I'd really like to see the analysis of what's so risky."

It depends how you define risk:

Some think an investment with an outcome range between 5% and 10% as low risk. While a range between -75% and plus 10,000% as high risk.

"Then why mention it could be spun off to raise money?"

It's a sop to those calling for an immediate sale - it's never going to happen.

$20m upfront. In merck exscience deal.

Avacta will be looking for more.

I do hope we avoid a SPAC like the plague.

Nothing really bad about that JV, facts are facts.

The concern is that he sounds to have done it off camera in the afternoon session. Which creates an unlevel playingfield.

I suspect AS has been advised to give a date AND stick to it unless he wants to deflate the sp.

Have a read of pages 31 i think. They do acknowledge some might take the view that phase III might not be needed and different views on percentages of success might be held by some.

Although they don't go as far as discussing award of breakthrough status and how that might affect the position at the end of P1b.

Ps it is a paid for report and usefull for what it is. GLA DYOR etc etc