Member Info for AVCT

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Bill Muery

If you're running a company, you should have a very well developed point of view. Not the CFOs point of view, not a banker's point of view of what the intrinsic value of your business is. When you're managing the balance sheet and cash flow, you're worried about the low end of the range, and when you're trying to sell your company, you're thinking about the upper end of the range. And I think you really have to be realistic, because in my experience, if there's a mistake companies make, the smaller companies, biotech or emerging biopharma, is you overestimate the marketability your product and you underestimate about five things. Time to market. Investment basic risk. And you underestimate the inertia in the market, how hard it is to get market access. All those things and if you have that well developed view, your buyers are going to have it too. They know exactly what they think it's worth. And it doesn't matter what you think it's worth. It only matters what they think it's worth. And then, of course, if it turns into a competitive process, then all of a sudden, intrinsic value is here, and then there's a market value. And there are a number of different reasons these premiums reach 70, 80, 90% or more. But start with, what's the intrinsic value of the business? And people can debate all the assumptions. The assumptions and say, ‘well, they're just assumptions.’ You have to go on if someone's going to write a check. The decisions that some of these large companies, they serious decisions. They need. They don't want to get too many of them wrong. I think the equity research analysts and the point of view in research is incredibly valuable for buyers and sellers, because they'll think about it different, will challenge the conventional wisdom of a management team, and there is validation when investors believe in the potential of business, when analysts believe in the potential of business, as long as it's a balanced sort of presentation of the fact, I think it's really important to make do some of these deals, especially the larger you know, when you get into 5, 10, 15 billion or more, those are not small bets, no matter how much money people have.

C4 AND H2 will be fine imo

"If you look at the 2023 full accounts it says how many staff and it’s a lot more than 30."

2023 acçounts include DX staff which for #AVCT going forward aren't relevant

"If so could the expansion phase be run in parallel with this ?"

No

Any relevance to AVCT

Todays news didn't do much for the adaptimmune SP

Total MV now $316m

"Taking into account 'broader business prospects', they are paying cash. Is it fair toconclude then that these 'business prospects' are therefore likely to materialise before next cln decision i.e. in the next 12 weeks? i can/can't wait."

No - but it doesn't matter if we have to wait until Q4 or Q1 2025

@JT

"@BV - CC told a few individuals during the AGM that the 3rd patient in cohort 3 was due to be dosed that same day (i.e., the day of the AGM). Second hand info, of course, so make of it as you will."

Thanks for posting

I'd like to believe that and am leaning in that direction, as otherwise recruitment of the 3rd patient is potentially taking longer than previously.

What is annoying though is that this isn't/wasn't announced officially - since the official position is that 3rd patient dosings were to be RNS'd ( all be it that was the policy under AS )

End of the day no big deal but does determine whether arm2 completes in September ( ie before H1 update ) or October

I'd rather base expectations on worst case and be pleasantly suprised rather than vise a versa so wasn't expect to hear end point until October anyway.

"Prob why the shares are down then"

Unstable PI base trading on margin a factor here imo

@Welsh

I think the word you meant to use was "simpleton"

"Oh yes, and not to forget, confidence in Launch / Coris becoming cash flow positive and able to pay the CLN instalments that primarily funded their acquisition in the first place."

a) DX won't be that profiable in a month of Sundays imo

b) New CEO has been very clear with her reasons that DX is now on the block - just not known when or how sold or demerged etc

"Settling in shares (above 50p) is actually better and cheaper than using our 50p raised cash."

NOT SO

"if they settle in cash with a share value north of 50p, then this would be a bad business decision and will put up a massive red flag for me!"

BYE

@being

A while backI had originally thought shares most likely to preserve cash

But now I think the probability is cash for various reasons

For clarity I don't subscribe to the theory that cash implies deal imminent - Avacta have lots of options.

@ Ben

My guess is traders may have traded already for the timebeing

I'm bored rigid now - only a week to go until the next is it isn't it saga !

Wasn't A3996 to be targeted against solid tumour containing FAP

Rather than velacade target myeloma which doesn't

"Could the company be split with Launch staying on AIM and Avacta listing in NY?"

Might be a creative non cash/ raise way of parking the CLN - don't know what the tax treatment might be for TX distribution.

"I personally hope they've sold it and will pay off the cln with the proceeds."

Or partner with an upfront cssh element - which is on my wish list

@JT

"haven't heard anything about ava3996 for months, my guess is that this has been quietly shelved. Likely for a good reason"

Any ideas on the possible good reason ?

Ta

" does anyone get the feeling Avacta is being packaged for sale. "

Nope

"When does Phase 2 start?"

When they're ready!

"Probably fair to assume £2m-£2.25m pm cash burn going forward i.e £35m giving 15-18 months of cash runway."

If you run cash down to zero ( whiich they won't do ) you're about right.

Phase II expected to start sometime mid 2025 which is what the RNS actually says.

When/If DX sold will extend that runway - as will a licence deal when/if inked