Member Info for AVCT

@ice

"Fast track was always likely under PFS surrogate endpoint could be STS indication, or Breast Cancer. Depends on data dose expansion."

I believe we may ( in my view likely ) see two p2 studies which could quite happily run in parallel or staggered.

- our own funded small STS or SG to gain first approval of drug

- a larger BP funded partnership study to expand use

@WAG

"Plus they have sufficient cash to get to P2 and that’s without having to sell dx. "

Not true - you forget about the requirement to sign off audit on 2024 accounts around March 2025.

DX sale should be completed by then imo

@JV

Yes agree there are ways to fit into NASDAQ rules

Isn't there however a minimum capital rule which might be trickier to satisfy - possibly stearing to the reverse takeover route ?

Which imminent IPO is that then ?

"I genuinely think the first to jump in with a solid bid will trigger multiple competing offers for both the assets and the whole company."

Probably a good reason why imo, when ready BP will favour partnerships over bids - much lower risk all round

"rather than over £30m with more on the way."

I think you mean something more like £23m

Btw more than enough for the time being

Nobody knows - which is why I express my posts as opinion

You do have to ask yourself though, who posted what around midday and whether Market Makers know how to do their job?

"Who knows...definitely not PI's..."

This is assumption - most likely wrong in my view

I'd not seen this follow up before to the 2020 posterboy 47 acquisition by Gilead - fits with CC's recent comments about BP being a bit gunshy of early stage TO

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gilead-gives-49b-antibody-solid-tumor-plan-unravels#:~:text=A%20%244.9%20billion%20hole%20has,tumor%20trials%20from%20its%20pipeline.

"Under what circumstances would it be appropriate to delay start of P2?"

One possible scenario is BOD still negotiating an acceptable asset partnership and not wishing to dilute with equity until those negotiations concluded one way or the other

But as I said a low probability scenario

"Selling Dx gives them another year of Simon picking up a salary whilst they gather enough data for him to put pen to paper with a deal they deem suitable."

Alternatively if start of P2 is postponed we are likely funded through to Q1 2026 even with paying CLN instalments in cash - imo one of the lower probability scenarios

"It’s far more likely that we are sold before raising enough to get well into P2. That’s just logic."

Care to take us through your logic please

Lets hope it's a sign they've assigned tha Wetherby lease

"Https://investingstrategy.co.uk/biotech/investing-strategy-the-avacta-edit/#The_Oncology_Four - Charles Archer.

Updated on 29.02.2024 (!)

Probably well known here, but I felt it was worth reviewing in the light of recent Avacta presentations"

Don't know what your point is -this is an old 2023 article supposedly updated feb 2024.

Ask Charles, he will tell you he sold his shares in the run up to the placing and hasn't been inclined to reinvest even at 40p. His concern is lack of cash and an ongoing need for funding.

He's not infallable and at this point in time I believe his actual position is wrong.

He's a trading journalist and when alls said and done writes clickbait for his paymasters

"would actually put Avacta in a very precarious position as a stand alone TX R&D company. with a very limited income stream."

Rubbish

"OK debts should be nil with the DX sold...but they haven't actually said they would clear the Loan with the proceeds have they?"

Good as said this since raising on NASDAQ to pay off debt is a non starter

Affyxell did a funding round only in September - which I believe valued it in total @ £22m approx making Avacta's 21% holding worth £4.6m

"Agreed CJ I don't want to be sort of told outside of an RNS either. If 2 weekly has finished they need to RNS it."

It hasn't so they haven't

"So mustang a placing to cover HCI loan & 12 months cash. Roughly 100 m shares @ 50 p. CC would be fired quicker than Alan"

20m to cover shortfall from DX sale is a poosible scenario imo

Would have some merit placing with US specialist funds ahead of future NASDAQ

They would likely prefer same 50p as feb placing and removes both blocks to NASDAQ in one go while there is chance to raise enough to leave £18m at March25

If under consideration probably best to do it sooner rather than later - clear the decks of bad news on 30th with H1 update ready for flow of good news October onwards

New posters pipeline science day - then pressure is off for time being of next funding whether that be NASDAQ or LD

"So why does there appear to be no SP reaction to this morning's positive RNS?"

Imo #avct is primarily traded by a reasonably well informed group of pi ( and not alot else ). That group group saw this information coming at the 40/50/60p level and are fully invested.

No buyers means no reaction to the news itself - then a bit of profit taking steps in.

I think the search is case sensitive AVA