RE: Broker downgrades7 Jan 2025 16:13
'The state of Vistry’s balance sheet has also raised some alarm with the Swiss bank.
Net debt at year-end is now expected to reach £200m, significantly higher than the previous forecast of £50-60m.
UBS estimates average monthly net debt for 2024 could climb to £550m, with total adjusted debt, including provisions and joint venture obligations, reaching £1.8bn.
This would represent leverage of 5.3 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation—a level UBS believes could force Vistry to prioritise debt reduction at the expense of profitability.
UBS highlights several key risks, including whether the balance sheet is adequately funded given the steep profit decline, what a realistic profit trajectory for 2025 might look like, and how quickly the company can recover.
While the upcoming trading update on January 15 may offer some clarity, the outlook remains uncertain.'