Member Info for Aus3009

Oh dear Fleccy, when in doubt Brag should be your motto.

you’re not the biggest investor in BT on this board, by your reckoning I’m a bigger fan than you are & there will be many others larger than that.

You remain utterly without class. Honestly more than a little pathetic as you try so hard to impress.

we do have something in common. I still see BT as reaaonable investment & I too like the dividends.

Fleccy - if your opinion is I’m overly pessimistic that’s fine. But honestly, your opinion would count for something if only you could demonstrate the sloghtest understanding of the actual risks, rather than your re-occurring, ever repeating rhetoric.

I understand BT’s cost cutting plan, but what this really is an admission BT will be less & therefore its competition will be more.

The rate of this and the size of this is obviously up for discussion and everyone will have their own opinion.

I’m not sure any sane mind thinks BT will reduce its employee numbers by circa 50,000 any time soon.

So with falling revenue, less customers, more competition, loan payments, pension fund payments (assuming these end in time) and all their other departments / liabilities don’t think it takes where they have to start making difficult choices / stutter / become distracted.

BT as a company has always operated (mostly) with plenty of revenue coming in, so has always had room for manoeuvre. How will they reorganise to operate in a cash crunch.

Because if it’s 5 years, 10 years or more, eventually money coming in and money going out start to converge (with massive operatingcosts this come quicker).

This is why growth is important and this is what BT must return too.

Arees - yes dominant

But I think you guys are reading competition against BT wrong & therefore underestimate the risk.

I don’t have a crystal ball, but Inam clear eyed about the risks to my BT investment

BT has a lot of debt. It also has an awful lot of business costs, due to its size and legacy business. ( I’m not just talking about TDM telecoms)

It creates a lot of money, but it also spends, an awful lot of money.

BT can remain very dominant, but lose just enough income to really make them struggle to pay their bills. Competition doesn’t need to take everything, just enough to slow BT down, reduce its fire power.

BT will not lose its dominance any time soon, but falling revenue, increased competition means it’s losing strength every year. It’s this which needs to turn around, growth is super important for any business to remain relevant.

Mean while competitors are growing, either customer base or financials or both. Even with VM losses, its revenue has increased, its fire power increases.

No crystal ball here, but for sure, BT’s competition doesn’t need to eat all BT’s lunch, it just needs to eat enough to grow & shrink what BT is. Inflation, running costs, glacier decision making and playing by rules and business norms will do the rest, if BT cannot adjust quick enough.

This is the risk, the weight you or I put on that weight is up to us. Me personally, I’m still okay with it, but I recognise it’s needs a careful eye

Fleccy - you still don’t get it do you?

Some of those AI driven sentences must stick in your throat? Some of them reinforce what I have been saying & you publically & arrogantly dismiss.

So, about that debt. I’ve already said Libery Media (John Malone) will be playing an entirely different debt game than BT.

No one call tell the future but, based on previous debt adventures, John Malone and friends will play this one of 3 or 4 ways

Either build debt until unsustainable within Netco and then fight it out

Build debt and then combine with massive players, who have money to burn, who will pay premium (Look at what Comcast paid for Sky)

Carve out deals before or during debt crisis and refocus to UK markets

Or combination of all three leveraging each option.

Based on previous research Malone will already know where he wants to get to and likely already has that agreed in principle.

My bet is, that will be Comcast / Sky ? But he will have plan B’s

Build the debt. Scale the operation. Fight a good fight. Refinance. Sell or merge would be my view.

Literally hardly anything to do with using BB revenue to balance the books.

That aus3009 guy got it right then. There will be much more to come.

This is finally one player starting to show their hand. £2 billion out, £3.5 billion + in. I have no doubt Nexfibre will end up being a debt vehicle, future refinancing deals in its future.

Interestingly VM already have 18million gigabit capable premises online too.

If it’s not careful companies like City fibre might find themselves cornered and will face very difficult decisions.

Someone else has already said it will take time, expect other major players aka Comcast to get involved (in my opinion)

BT does need to start doing more to fight this off, remember debt isn’t a problem to these players, they see debt as an entirely different way of doing business, it will keep making them money until it doesn’t & then we will see a too big to fail standoff between lenders and debt vehicles.

What will BT do over and above what it has already done? Because competition stuttered but has decided they haven’t done enough.

& finally, so much of what happens next isn’t all about good business, many events will be emotional ideology with very deep pockets.

Share price patterns today were very strange. That looks like a SP being played to me

Good. Glad to see BT getting some credit for enabling so many other businesses and talent

Erik - you have to be a parody of a real person.

Is their anyone on this board who could read this stuff and not think cokooo?

Erik - seriously & I really do mean this & your are for real. Get yourself some help.

“Far left organisation “

Good grief has Brexit made you lose your mind?

You were right about one thing, your comment about “you might be wrong”. You’ve literally pickled yourself in propaganda.

Fleccy - true to form, absolutely pathetic.

Really don’t know why you want me to be more like you.

I can take the evidence of my own eyes and draw objective conclusions based on the facts in front of me. (I also like to muse about what ifs in an attempt to consider possible outcomes)

This is clear as day. DT looks to be an amazing company returning good results

BT are still delivering poor results, based on a metric that increased revenue, increased profit are good things

Our friend Polo isn’t biased because he likes DT but critisises BT, this he get right, if comparing the two.

I have no doubt though that he is biased against BT for what ever his reasons are, his SP estimates for example are continually low.

I remember your bias too. I remember you calling out Deutche Bank when they were predicting huge share price falls for BT. They called it right and you were wrong.

Your bias is blind. I continue to have a very large BT holding & I remain hopeful for a good profit over next couple of years but I would prefer to keep eyes open and not deny obvious facts along the way.

I’d love financial results like this.

I think you would too.

Poor performance = negative opinion

Very good performance = positive opinion

Does not indicate bias

https://report.telekom.com/annual-report-2024/

Yes based on those figures it is less concerning. 850,000 stil equates to over 4% of openreaches base.

For me customer losses still remain a concern, it’s something BT need to stem. If I remember rightly originally BT predicted a loss of 400 to 450 thousand in total, at time I thought was bad enough.

Bobsbank - I didn’t omit anything.

I just don’t see losing 850,000 customers as good news, 900,000 isn’t even slightly worse.

& of course it’s not the end of the year yet.

Will look forward to your celebrations should only 849 999 customers leave your investment.

Me on the other hand, I want to see only one addition.

The “on track “ part of those results is closer to wishful thinking and hope than a concrete promise written in blood.

The bit that matter here are 4% drop in revenue, circa expected 850,000 customer loss. I say that again, 850,000 customer loss.

This news balanced by fibre rollout going well & really not much else.

I know most of you think I’m biased, but I’m still awaiting signs of a financial turnaround.

Companies, businesses have to grow, it’s just a financial fact.

Interesting day tomorrow. Questions to be asked regardless of results.

If results are good, who, what, where, when did investors get insider information?

If results are bad, who is pumping the share price, in order to benefit from a share price correction?

Very strange share price behaviour, but good

Looks like liberty and Telefónica are prepared to spend big bucks to strategically box city fibre in.

All that overbuild matters much less when a company is thinking strategically.

Even I doubt customers of this service will gladly choose VM going forward, likewise I doubt VM will care, if they follow through on this deal it won’t be about customer growth or network gains (other than redundancy in overbuild areas) …. Could be a quick replacement of coax ?

Either way, this would look very aggressive to me. Expect further consolidation & keep eye on Talk Talk customer base, see where they are bleeding into & whether those altnets might be targeted

Rollercoaster share price, even today on low volumes. Very strange behaviour, when compared to market around it.

@david - very inciteful David, both from your post and from the snooze response.

There is a little peep into his psyche there for everyone to see. I wonder if he is deliberately not reading oneweb recent history and how Bharati did so well out of it. Very interesting to see Bbarti & the British government in business together? Maybe he is positioning himself, British government couldn’t possibly refuse a BT takeover, if they themselves are his business partner?

Good (food) for thought.

Snooze - get some help, it’s so boring living in your head rent free.

Did you check how our largest shareholder benefited from oneweb using chapter 11 ?

Oneweb incorporated in Channel Islands at the time…..

Some of this sudden concern might be about Talk Talk. It is looking more likely they are no longer a controlled sale, recent news is looking more and more like a chaotic sell which could lead to their customer base moving on the cheap.

I hope on hope there are no surprises for next financials, because if there are, I would assume it will be more losses from openreach.