Member Info for Aubery

HS2 Ltd is publicly owned....
I too think HS2 is bonkers ... but that does not justify the government shouldering the risk of digging a big, privately owned, shaft...

Woolv,
The issue isn’t the cost of the guarantee..,,,
It’s the cost of the liability.... you are asking for Sirius to move the risk of the shaft from the owners of the shaft to the tax payer....
the contract with DMC is not all risk. You are asking for all Scope change, delays, geotechnical issues...to sit with the tax payer.
This is a private enterprise.

PAAA
I agree, this is fluid and the board are not bound by these timescales but...
CF did not need to signpost end of Oct. he could have just said discussions are advanced, waffle waffle. Why state it?
I’d say , on the balance of probabilities, we will get an update on funding and revised programme by end of Oct.
It will very likely be good news for the project. Whether it will be good news for PI’s remains to be seen.

Woolv,
We are all annoyed. But Your anger should be directed to the SXX board. Not the government. Listen to the webcast. CF makes it very clear. Private money (bond market, funders, banks...etc) would not back the shafts. Too much risk (CF keeps touting ‘perceived risk’). And coincidently, the government, quite rightly, would not give a guarantee against these shafts also. CF should have realised this years ago ....
It is intimated that if we get the shafts funded there may be government support for the rest of the build.
Can you imagine the tax payer ire if the shaft construction hit trouble at the government would have to step in to pay the rich bankers their coupon.... jeeeez....

Bellers
It was always a B&B and never a hotel. In the 1980’s.
These days we have annual short stays in Whitby and rarely visit Scarborough.
Fish n chips at Abbey Wharfe and a pint at Duke of York and another at the top of the steps at the Whitby Brewery (good ale but shocking toilets...)

Jeeeez,
Hotel inScarborough...,
Mind boggles, hope it’s not the Grand!!
Maybe the Ambassador...
10 years as a kid holidaying in Scarborough

Chesh
I feel like Millwall.
Everyone hates us but we don’t care....

Why would they do that??????

Xxdodge,
The Times article quote CF direct with new updates therefore I reckon that is a CF spun piece. LTH will know their fate within 3 weeks time. CF will have thought very hard about how he would be quoted. I reiterate, no mention of strategic partner.

I think the news is ok at best. CF recognised that he cannot have radio silence so has fed us some crumbs.
BUT, on the call he said he would prioritise a search for a strategic partner. That times article makes no reference of said partner. States ‘one option could result in Sirius trying to raise a much smaller sum to fund construction of what are perceived to be the riskiest parts first’... he said.
Raise a smaller.....
.... dig deep everyone, back of sofa...kids piggy bank....is this signposting RI coming in November for a few hundred million to purely fund the shaft....

Nice one DGR.

On the Sept call CF stated we would spend £1.5B over 2 years at full speed, everything concurrent. The revised schedule will mean all cost will be on shaft and likely continuation of tunnels. Everything else will be pushed back. We will need significantly less than £1.5B for the next 2 years. CF said he needs a ‘modest’ amount. CF also stated he was ‘very confident’.
Upside is we will likely hit first poly in late 2021. Ramp up to delivering 10mtpa and divis to be pushed back by a number of years.....
My thoughts, we survive but LTH will be Longer Term Holder’s.....

Foxhound
You need to read the prospectus to learn how close we are to administration and liquidation. The company have stated very clearly the risk.
Having reflected on my investment here I am still long but CF has literally a matter of a few weeks. The 6 month ‘review’ is a red herring. Don’t forget he pulled the bonds at the start of Aug so one would hope he’s had at least 8 weeks at this already.

*delete’under’...

Bryn
£500m on its own will not be enough.
CF has made it clear.
We do not have the funds to finish the shafts
Lenders perceive the risk of shaft build too high.
We need a partner or someone to under insure risk of the shafts.

Challenging few months JR!!
The one statement I agree with you on Sir

Thanks Myo

Myo
The contracts are live but there will likely be break clauses. And milestone agreements. DMC and Strabag will have have not signed up to fulfil the entire scope when funds were not secured for the entire scope.
Myo - what would your best guess be to when the SBR would be launched?

Ffc
I did figure the equity stake was a sweetener for the torp
But, the gloves are now off. CF has to now scrap to preserve cash. What did that stake cost (was it £30M?).
Notice there has been no new news on sales for an age.

I trust we will be selling our equity stake in Cibra.