Member Info for Aubery

JR
Why is election important?

KOH
There are folk invested here who do not understand where we are at.
It now appears positive that this project will continue but the recipients of the profit (how long now to positive cash flow?) is likely not going to be PI’s in any significant percentage.
Combination of dilution plus increased royalties plus huge ‘delay’ (from ST2) to get to 10m and 20mtpa and increased time for debt repayment.
This is a NEW project.... the financing of which we do not know.

Can only see SP improving by shorts closing. Only small PI punt money and traders buying.
Our limbo continues

Trev
Sentiment is rock bottom because we don’t know the deal

Not sure it can improve until we know the deal.

Good for thought Sorcerer.
The thing is past finance was based on past programme. Past programme now shot.
I’m struggling to even guesstimate....

Zak Mir is guessing....
For ST2 it was possible to work out NAV, programme, equity, debt repayment, ramp up programme.....
We have none of this currently and it will take a while to work up.. it will be drastically different.
#reset....

Can’t argue with that DHC, A very low base with which to compare.
Problem is I invested on the by back of the last two equity raises ......

DHC
When you state ‘all for the better...’
It is presumed you mean compared to administration
And not compared to ST2 ?
The reaching poly sooner may well happen but.....

Can’t fathom folk talking dividends....
Optimism of course that the spectre of administration now reduced ..... but, Compared to original ST2 plan we will likely have significantly more dilution and the previous ramp up to 10, 13 and 20 mtpa kicked massively down the road. (Double whammy!!!)
Folk need to recalibrate expectations.... I’m still in and hopeful on some ‘value’ but believe it will be modest and...... slow.

JR
What is your 15p+ based on?
Are you considering dilution or increased royalty payments?
Are you considering any delay to the project?

17p

The SBR arrived in August.... no news thus far that it has launched. Anyone have any update. Given getting these shafts built is now the critical path (IMO) would be great to know where we are at.

SP held up well....
Jeeeeeez I’d hate see what it looks like when the SP tanks....

Loving that PAAA
At least we still have our sense of humour.

Mr DT
If invested please read page 73 of the prospectus to appraise for yourself the risk of Administration,
Personally, I don’t think we will go into Admin.... but it is a risk you need to appraise.

Loving the title of this thread!

I reckon it would not cost too much to derisk. The high cost is the low risk MTS fit out. Does CF go for a staged construction with completion in order of risk.... fine BUT, the problem is CF had everything running in parallel. This will now not happen. (We have already laid off 300 folk) remember ‘optimised programme’. This is our current Achilles heal.
So, yes I’d go for stop everything, build shaft then recommence but the programme would be 18 months delay at least and a big hit on value. But we would survive and likely see SP appreciation from here.
All speculation but I’m WfH... and bored.

Yes FFC they will certainly want this to continue
But, they are both corporates and not privately owned, they will not just be able to agree increased risk (and reward). Lots of governance and sign off.
Unlike Qatar and China.... much less red tape....

I might be wrong be cannot see how we can, outside RCF deal, issue £500 bonds and warrants. Funders were procuring on the basis of the whole package. No RCF, no £500m IB.
Well certainly not on the basis of the last prospectus.
We need to reset the process... new prospectus.... new rules, new schedule...etc
But WTFDIK

Myo
Just speculating around the shaft construction risk.
Maybe it was that the lenders did not like how the liability for risk was split between SXX and DMC. They did not like the contract.
Therefore chuck more cash at DMC, if they have appetite, for them to take on more risk for shaft completion. Unless they, as a corporate, are on the limit of their liability on the contract. Often thirst party insurance cover dictates the level of risk a corporate can take on.
Shame we are not privy to the clauses in the shaft sink contract.