Member Info for Aubery

I agree Ginger

Thanks Sheps

Thanks Dan,
Clear to all, we the shareholders carried some of the risk.
There’s stuff in the RPA also from memory.
Cheers

Correct Myo
And, this is why the additional warrants for the IB were a bridge too far for JPM. Precedent for future bonds.

Sheps
From memory majority of the contracts were remeasure, I don’t recall Strabag being ‘all risk’. If I’ve missed the RNS apologies.
I recall in the last but one call CF referred to the contracts as being one of the issues with the lenders.
DMC certainly aren’t all risk (from memory)

Hi GK
Thanks for the mention, sorry for the delay, accident while playing naked twister with the mother in law.
Careful with your percentage forecasts ;-)

Yes Myo, pure speculation of course. Look at the complexity of the previous finance deals. Who could gave forecast then?! You’d have to be Derek Acorah to accurately predict how the finance will be structured.
UTT

I will humour you Ffc, sure the board is riveted!
From memory, the equity for ST2 was 10B ish.
I have no opinion on what the new equity might be, impossible to guess. Might be more shares (convertibles? Warrants?)
But, the cost of this $600M AND strat partner is going to cost us (LTH) , how? Who knows.

Ffc
All of the 2.5B will hopefully be by debt

Ffc
You don’t understand because you are thick as mince. 1 year in and 2000 posts of nothing, well done.

The ST2 model didn’t require a sponsor to get us through construction. It is now very late in the day and critical to our survival. This will cost. Comprendy?
Now go check when the13mtpa will happen as you currently believe it will be sooner....

I don’t disagree Myo
Provision of $600M in of itself though will not address the perceived risk or where the liability of the shaft build sits.
This is the elephant in the room.
And presumably where the strat partner helps.

Unless Churchill’s now insure mine shafts.

Ffc
The company have made clear the two channels they are pursuing for the $600M
Please quote me where I state ‘no hope...’?
For the record, I’ve been involved in the last equity raises and have every right to be critical of where we are and critical of the company. Doesn’t mean I’m not invested or that I am not ‘hopeful’ of positive investment return from 3.5p.
A decent return from 15p and 20p....unlikely in the short term IMO

Myo
Much of that £1.2B raised was risk free for 2 of the 3 components. I don’t see bond holders or Gina upset.
Who took the risk... equity holders ( us or as some like to refer...LTH)
This time around it will much harder to do similar arrangement even though we are much much closer to first poly. Can’t see much appetite for increased equity via PI route.
Hence my continued assertion this will come good via strat partner but they’ll take a huge chunk.

Thank you ffc
Been listening to the webcasts for years. Hence my realistic view.
Your research though is good. Thinking we would get to 13mtpa sooner with the new plan ... no wonder you are so happy.
Maybe you should learn to actually listen....

Myo
Thanks for forwarding... tough on an iPhone 5.

Key for me is what the new slide 15 will look like. specifically that middle bit the new Terms!

Myo
You will know this

12m deferral we get 11.6mt at end of 2025
24m deferral we get 2.6mt end of 2025

Myo
20mtpa was in those early investor presentations. And yes, may not have been included in the prospectus.

I’m working away and not got my laptop so forgive me if inaccurate..
Ffc from memory the revised plan gets to 13mtpa many years later than planned. Half the construction is currently on hold.
The ST2 bond unlocked 2.5B RCF making the bond much less of a risk to bond holders plus the ramp up was fast. New plan is much more pedestrian.
Who knows what a strategic partner will want but I’d guess it won’t be shares (or just shares.... they are so unreliable)
Ginas deal was genius hence my hunch on royalty. Dilution Wont hurt royalty and royalty will rank higher that share holders.
Don’t we need the strat partner to reduce risk (guarantor) and not necessarily provide the $600M. This may come from the banks.

Will no doubt learn soon.... then we can determine if 3p is bargain of the century. But I’m guessing we will have to wait years to get to previous equity raise SP prices.

To add, previous bond sales were done alongside equity raise.

Ffc
issuing bonds is fine when you’re making cash.
How does SXX currently propose to pay the coupon.....?
In the old plan we rapidly ramped up to 20mtpa. This is now not the case.

Random thought (then off to bed)
Sale and lease back of the shafts.
Sell for a pound, someone pays to get me built (stand takes risk)
Then hits us for premium rent for the foreseeable.
Not dilution ( but it is really)