RE: Takeover coming ?18 Jul 2023 22:40
Hello
A few problems with your post (from someone that has actually sold businesses and been involved in purchase of businesses)
1) If you want to see anyone that has fostered an environment that has been "acclimatised to negativity" then look no further than the BoD and the RNS they produce. Are they in on it?
2) "lack of educated discussion " I agree with you here. I have posted a great deal of research based on the P&L and RNS and the children never try and counter but just end up diverting things. Will you help change this?
3) "suggested ODX was worth £25m-£30m or around 12p " Er no it didn't. That is paid for media. Let me help out here. First look at the industry sector (don't worry "snake oil medical" can be thrown in with "healthcare") Second look at the EBITDA. Then look at the trend over the last 5 years. Then look at client base, retention and market penetration. That is a start, not a complete list. Once you have that and done some trend analysis use it to produce a multiplier and see what you get. That's the value.
4) To test the theory - because hey, you don't want to take my word at it, use actual, published facts. The GREAT thing with ODX is they have a track record. Take CD4 and that division. Include the assets (tangibles/intangibles) associated with that division and the Alva site. Now, see how much they got paid. Remember this by the ODX board admission in RNS was the "jewel in the crown" of the portfolio. See? It is just maths. For M&A companies look at forecast and risk. Sometimes they buy stuff just to experiment for bigger stuff (ask me how I know)
5) You may also want to see the motivation to sell. Is it distress or is it opportunity? Guess which one sells better.
6) "business delivering turnover of circa £9m (and growing) cash of £5m," You have two things wrong in one sentence. Well done. First turnover was down. Badly down. It is also vanity. Profit is all that matters in SMEs. Second they don't have £5m in the bank. They DID but they don't now. A really simple excel sheet with some basic trend analysis will show roughly what they have now. Also remember £2.5m of that is in dispute so although I doubt it will need paying back it is on the books.
7) "The results are due" - not sure why you think the RNS the BoD produced indicating the results for FY22/23 will be dramatically different. Do you think the CFO is an idiot? Out of all of them I think he is the best one on the board. What is you making you doubt his figures? If you mean H1 23 they won't be due until Q3/4. But you should know that already - you like "educated discussion " after all.
8) "I have been buying recently" I am sorry for your loss
9) "it has been exceptionally hard to buy in size" Complete and utter cobblers.