Member Info for Atanasoff

Captain

The contract was clearly divided between two payments. The argument is over what gets allocated where. We have a totally corrupt government who are full of self interest. In my view nether party can afford a court case, especially as we enter election year. Both parties have a load to lose over what is fundamentally not a great deal of money. Unless the BoD are really stupid they will settle for zero payment on the basis of it being in full and final settlement. So either, that still isn't on the table or they really are nuts. These things take the one thing ODX hasn't got - time. Both parties need this settling before the election. That is just fact.

The matter is also a distraction in my view from the bigger issues.

My estimate of current balance remains at £3.5m based on the figures presented. They could be worse but we won't find out until November ish. We may not get any other news until Jan.

In the meantime - someone sold 7 shares today ! Let's assume they aren't with HL !

Now the dust has settled - just a reminder of risks on this stock that we didn't know before last week:

1) Decline by an average of 6% per annum for the last 5 years on returns.

2) Declared in the accounts that no taxable profit before 2025

3) Relocation back to square one with extraction costs of aborted lease yet to be finalised

4) White label products still to launch - delayed as previous RNS said July

5) Although I don't think they will have to pay much or anything the payment argument with the taxpayer hasn't been resolved

6) Only one other prospect in ODX to close. Other 2 haven't started ordering yet

I have no doubt that ODX have the right strategy now but I don't know if they have the time, skill or resources to fulfil in time.

We will see around November time what the half year results are - my guess is they will be stinkers. Until then......

Volumes were hugely up which is interesting. The sell off continues but we had nearly as many buys from people that like being 15% down instantly. I am guessing many LTHs "averaging down" like lemmings.

2.25p next week?

# Trades 34

Vol. Sold 974,951

Sold Value £22.33k

Vol. Bought 808,078

Bought Value £19.45k

The green stripe cannot debate. It doesn't understands accounts. It can only focus on positives as that is all that can be mentally processed. The reality cannot be contemplated.

Instead much better to accuse others of being wrong. It is lazy and shows a level of cognitive denialism.

Just green stripe it - so much better than reading paranoid nonsense.

14% spread. Just crazy. SP will have to come down on these sort of levels

If someone with a large holding tried to sell now I think they would struggle.

Thanks - I was wrong in that the I didn't the accounts would be worse than those declared in April. They were. Apart from that I have been pretty spot on. I will give credit when it is deserved and I will slate them likewise.

The problem with the rampers is they can never be objective. It is why most of them carry heavy losses.

They started in Feb and so invoice would have been March. On 30 days as standard for SMEs and larger clients will be on 60-90 days. That is why their fees weren't in last years accounts.

Nothing on that front to be alarmed at. In the meeting the CFO explained the outputs and again (as I wrote below) this was encouraging. The bit I disagree with the board about is they acted promptly.

You bring people like me in before you have problems to ensure that you don't have issues and lower risk. You bring in people like Chartwell when you have let a problem develop and you don't know how to improve things.

What is very clear is that production has been "managed" very badly. To only now have KPIs and focus on QC process is frankly staggering. You almost have to admire the company that they've limped on for so long fundamentally winging it.

I agree that we have lots of jam in today's presentation. Unlike other years I think they actually have the right strategy. They have also brought in new people which is good. What I remain to be convinced of is if they can deliver. I meet lots of companies that know what they should do. Some are also bright enough to identify opportunities that would provide market differential and unique value propositions. What holds them back? The people, the available resource and time.

I don't agree that ODX are a market leader. But they could be. They have the route forward nailed. But I am not sure if they have the people, resource or time to implement.

Until they have demonstrated so tangible progress and reduced risk this remains a gamble and therefore a sell. If they are so confident they would do well in giving the market confidence and throwing in at least 20% of their renumeration.

Well that wasn't a complete disaster. Jag had even dressed for the occasion.

Summary -

£1.5 m for new kit needed and will be paid for by next Feb. (So by estimate that leaves £2m)

Unknown amount needed to extract themselves from new site commitment which is no longer going ahead - still needs another site in next 2 years (so additional costs)

Price rises to customers by 20-40% (interesting!) - this would counter the issues with driving higher margin sales and if volumes maintain obviously would help with revenue.

Has a 3rd US prospect but not yet converted (remember the lag time between sale and delivery)

No expectation of any warrants being exercised before November - so they have no expectation of the share price rising

No expectation of buyout (although obviously vulnerable)

Brand is "tarnished" and so rebrand better describes the way forward (!) - As I mention below I actually agree with this move. It is sensible.

Growth strategy "I am sure many of you have seen this before" - never a truer word.

However, some good stuff on data insights which will have some commercial benefits. Moving to a more SaaS model rather than physical testing. That is huge. They are on the right track here in my view but I remain to be convinced they have the right people to deliver, have the time to deliver it and the cash to deliver.

When companies try and change "culture" AND product focus it is extremely hard to achieve. NNN tried and failed as an example and we have a long list of similar disasters.

I actually wish them well. For me I believe mkt cap is still too high reflecting the risks to the business. Come November we could see improvement in sentiment based on half year reports.

If you're a long term holder and can I would keep this in the bottom drawer as you may recover some of the losses in the future. Just don't expect miracles.

Captain - to be honest a 28% increase in losses wasn't what I was expecting. That is huge and the more you dig the worse it is. Looking forward to the presentation.

Hi Haggis

No. I was but got out with loss back in the 60p range. I appreciate your concern but you are as perceptive about me as you are about the value of this stock. Spotting rubbish shares being ramped by the malicious or clueless is a bit of a hobby. Keeps my brain active reading P&Ls even though I also do that with my work. It sure beats watching TV. I mainly do it when bored or procrastinating (which is why I am on now as I have had my final meeting of the day and can't be bothered starting the report I need to write). Fascinating eh?

Are you invested? If so I am sorry for your loss. If it is any consolation I am really good at what I do and have made the right calls. If it wasn't a hobby I could make some money but then that leads to pressure and I can't be doing with any more of that. My hunch is this should fall to 2.25p. FT is currently showing the SP as 2.36 which is more accurate than LSE.

Sorry for the posts but the more I look the more I am gobsmacked.

Footprint sales DOWN by 32%

Food Detective DOWN by 41%

These are meant to be the future !

Costs are also rising. Costs are now #400K a month and with recruitment of a Ops Director among other items this is only going to get worse.

I have now noted production improvements (back to 2020 levels) but this isn't much to celebrate. Why? Because they don't expect taxable profits until 2025. To quote:

"...based on the Group's trading assumptions the deferred tax asset in respect of trading losses will begin being realised from 2025 onwards, when the Group starts to generate taxable profits."

The other interesting element is how they calculate going concern. In this they have calculated:

"The reverse stress test indicates revenue could fall by a further 45% and a gross margin could deteriorate by an additional 2% before forecast cash resources are exhausted."

Think this is bad? In the stress test they haven't made ANY provision for the tax payers money to be paid at all.

It is also worth remembering just how vital Ely was going to be. Some of the so called LTHs struggle to understand what happens where. Clueless.

Fundamentally the BoD have many questions to answer. This is much worse than I was expecting. A lack of liquidity is the only thing stopping this dropping like a stone.

Did Colin pocket this nice little sum when he left?

The interesting thing in the statement regarding Chartwell:

"a very material increase in yield and the improvements will help meet the demand for our food sensitivity tests"

Remember - only idiots take things at face value. Here are the two key questions:

1) What is the tangible increase? 20%? 30%? I have no doubt they have made a difference but you cannot make a silk purse from a pigs ear. Chartwell are respected and will have documented the performance increases. What are they? The fact is that the facility in Liliport wasn't considered fit for purpose (see previous RNS), hence why the new facility (now looking like it has been aborted at huge cost) was so vital.

2) This lead to the second element. The term "will help" is telling. It doesn't mean "resolved" or "overcome". It is merely a contribution. So the question is what material impact has the supply chain and lack of capacity got on any any order input and how do they anticipate resolving this? If they can't then revenue will be impacted (if you can't make it you can't sell it). This further is compounded by the significant drop in margin on sales. (I bet none of you have worked out what the revenue needs to be just to stand still have you?)

The more this is looked at (and I confess I have not been able to really dig into the figures as this is a work day for me with a number of meetings) the more scary it becomes.

Nope. All there in the RNS:

£2m EDITDA Loss.

No more sales in the US AND the 2 units they have sold and crowed about not even live yet and note the wording investment in expansion "will come" not "has been" - they have been promising this since 2018! In fact "we will" is used liberally instead of "we are".

Sales projection in the US is £3-£5m in 3-5 years - This simply isn't going to be enough on the margin projections.

A retreat in order profiling back to UK and over reliance on the white label Chinese market - this is not good (if you had ever worked in china you will know why)

Yield issues not meeting demand (remember on lower figures)

New white label tests STILL not launched - they said these would be launched in July but even then this CORE strategy will only deliver a projected £2m over the next FIVE years. That is peanuts for something so key

This company is in a death spiral. 2 minutes looking at the accounts shows that. Can they recover? Yes. I am however really struggling to see anything positive to give me confidence that they can pull this company around.

As readers will know I have maintained that it is almost certain they won't need to pay back all, if any of the £2.5m but they can forget a counter claim. Just won't happen and only for dreamers.

Stop lying. Stop the ramping.

The HAD #5m in the bank. They don't anymore. You don't value a business on the cash in the bank. If you had a single clue about business you would know this.

Hopefully one of the questions today in the presentation will be about current cash reserves. I haven't done the maths on the disasterous accounts yet so I can't project what the likely balance currently stands at. My finger in the air gut feel is they are down to about £3.5 - £3.75m.

Even I didn't think they would have changed the projected figures announced in the April RNS. But here we are - a total disaster. In summary:

NO FY24 forecast given. Guess why?

Operating loss wasn't #2.5m but #3.2 million. This is staggering.

Margins have collapsed from 60% to 47% - this means they need to manufacture more to even achieve the same loss!

The royalty fee is much lower and so far NOTHING has been paid, et alone a cap of a million

The dispute is STILL continuing - zero evidence of anything positive to come from this

They seem to have given up on the relocation

Sales from the US STILL not transpired - note the language in the RNS

As for the name change - this is actually a good idea but done at the wrong time. What are the costs of the rebrand? Remember when NNN did the same? Haven't they got bigger issues?

As for Chartwell they claim progress made but no tangible figures given.

The company is a disaster and being run by people totally out of their depth.

I said things would be bad and they are worse than thought. The only thing to cling to is the bank balance at the end of March 23. But notice? No indication of what it is now. This company has a maximum of 2.5 years IF they can settle with the tax payer. If any of that money is returned (I will come back to this one) then it will be over in 18 months unless they make extremely good progress that is totally against form.

Told you so.

Tiny volumes. Less than £10k traded. Share price drop was due to the spread shortening to try and attract someone, anyone , to buy. Only fools will be tempted unless positive, tangible news comes.

# Trades 13

Vol. Sold 238,154

Sold Value £5.99k

Vol. Bought 747

Bought Value £N/A

Big day Thursday. Hope Jag has his big boy pants on. What will we be expecting to see:

1) Result in line with April RNS.

2) Tangible outcomes from Chartwell Consulting engagement and status of relationship.

3) Trading update inc how much of the deferred order book has been delivered and sales pipeline

4) Progress and timetable on the tax payers money being argued over

For long term watchers of ODX we know what is likely but hope springs eternal. Would expect the results to be posted tomorrow or Thursday to support the presentation. The fact they haven't been makes my spidey senses twitch !

Volume up today but only just got over £10k worth. Some rare buys came in but whomever bought at 2.80 just before it fell again must be feeling a mug. 12%ish down before Thursday is not smart.

# Trades 16

Vol. Sold 352,496

Sold Value £9.12k

Vol. Bought 171,156

Bought Value £4.69k

Incoming 2.25p? I think so unless they have been holding something back.

No. I love following rubbish companies. NNN was my favourite and I predicted it would go bust.

Next up is SYME which I have to confess I love for the sheer chutzpah of the owner. He is stringing along idiots and has made many traders a fair old sum of money in the process.

CINE is another - where the delusional stalk the boards in the hope they will get something ( they won't)

AMGO had potential and I made a nice amount out of them. Now left to the P&D crowd before it is wound up in the next couple of months and those left holding the baby mourn their losses.

If you want a proper company that is being caned but has good prospects and is fundamentally sound then look no further than MCG. This one will bag at least. (this is my next mezzos where I got 4x investment).

I have spotted my next turds but ODX remains my fav. All the hallmarks of a crap company. The CFO is the only decent one on the board.

10 posts on 34 minutes - this is the behaviour of someone so angry, so desperate that they aren't far off being sectioned.

Thankfully I haven't had to read one of the deranged outpourings from the tax payer funded "carer".

The problem some have is that they are too reactive. I posted at length forward looking statements that were extremely suspect. I have also posted areas that were clearly wrong. All ignored by the reactionary bleating of an idiot.

You've been warned. Your losses are on you. If this goes sideways it isn't insiders, derampers or any others. It's on you.