Member Info for Arbroathsmokey

Do they pay a hedge to guarantee a minimum price or do they hedge to obtain a fixed price? I was hoping it was the former so that they can benefit from rising commodity prices but manage the risk of uncontrolled losses. I believe that hedging complicates accounting profit by making the company appear to be less profitable by front loading all future hedge costs to the present. One of the reasons hedge funds like millennium misunderstand and short it. (A market tracker beats millennium performance most years despite all their faffing about with clever shorting strategies etc. I struggle to understand why rich people pay them to look after their money).

If a lot of stock is borrowed by hedge fund managers then it also works in the opposite direction because a positive trading update will cause a more rapid rebound. I see no evidence of poor trading at Greggs currently. I see the opposite.

Account managers at hedge funds like Millennium aren’t as smart as they think they are. They are tried out and moved on when they don’t perform. Most don’t perform effectively. The fund overall performance appears to be poor considering their charges. I would be very disappointed if I had paid someone to look after my money and they then took a decision to use my money to short Greggs around this price. Reckless behaviour.

Momentum investors are fickle and impatient by definition. They buy shares that increase in an expectation that they will continue to increase. They take losses and move on to the next big thing when upwards momentum ceases. This is presents an opportunity for an investor with conviction to build up a reasonable stake before the next move up (It’s virtually impossible otherwise e.g. try to buy £20 to £50K when good news break - it’s impossible). Best to ignore day to day share drift. I expect this share is worth 50p plus if the company successfully manages to execute the projects that they have already won. We won’t know that for a few months. Patience is required unfortunately.

I also bought back. Way too cheap now. I guess I need to learn to be patient.

Thanks. The press release indicates that they are concerned about retaining their cash for field operations (which is a responsible thing to do). I guess they are responding to events as best they can.

Joined the queue to sell at a loss this morning. It will probably bounce back soon because the underlying investment case remains intact. There is value if they can develop the fields but that is not going to happen for many more months. Good luck to holders with patience. Why were they buying back shares recently?

If they use BB to get the market cap above $1.2 billion before the listing changes then they qualify to enter the S&P 600 index. That may be an objective that the management have decided adds best overall value. I’d be disappointed if there wasn’t also a bit of razzmatazz organised by management when the listing changes because they will be assured publicly. Too good an opportunity to ignore. Please don’t short unless you are confident.

DEC management are motivated to get the share price up to approx. £12.00 to attract large purchases from US index funds when the main listing changes. They have the cash, the motivation, and momentum.. My advice to those currently shorting this company is to close your position as soon as possible (unless you are VERY certain of what you are doing). I sense an inflexion and rerate happening soon. Please don’t suffer needlessly.

Meanwhile, China signaled it would maintain reliance on coal power for decades, targeting peak demand by 2030 and reversing earlier indications of a faster phaseout. This stance mirrors continued dependence on coal across other Asian economies and in Europe, driven by volatile power supply and rising electricity demand from data centers.

The above comments is copied from today’s commodity trader website.

Thanks Truro. What you said makes sense. In hindsight, approx. 2% of the companies equity for £600,000 was a bargain. I am going to assume that they couldn’t afford the resources and time to raise debt. The placing at 4p also seems equitable given previous placings. Like some others, I only became aware of this tiny company because I read Oakblokes Substack. I think that his research is often better quality than some of the paid websites. I only just noticed that there is a link on his site allow his supporters to give to a homeless charity that he supports. Best wishes to all.

Coal commodity price now increasing as we move into November. $109/tonne. Hang on everyone, the share price of this cash rich company can’t stay down for ever.

I am now invested. My research indicates that there is potential for this tiny company to make huge profits and that their ‘system’ developed over many years, although not protected by IP, has a reasonable moat. However, despite the recent increase in share price I am concerned about the low valuation assigned to the company given the perceived value of the recent contracts. Their business model (if I understand it) does not require more funding to raise working capital because their partners will provide it. It is also likely that the business is currently cash flow positive. What bothers me a bit is that I don’t understand why they issued 15,000,000 shares a few weeks ago to raise only £600,000 after years of effort just before the good news started flowing. Why did a bank not provide a loan if their business model was so lucrative and why would someone fully informed on the company’s prospects ‘flip’ their warrants at these ridiculous low prices (if what we a told is correct). I am not trying to knock the company I am genuinely curious. It may seem daft but I’d feel more comfortable buying more shares only at a higher price. Unless someone can help me to gain confidence by informing me what I am missing.

Yes, I thought that the oak blokes analysis on the information available to him was excellent. The share price was about 7p when I became aware of it. There are still many unknowns though. However, I’ve now decided that FOMO is too great so I took a decision to purchase at these levels. Apologies if I put my usual curse on this (my previous purchases have included Marconi, NXT, Torotrack, and a high dividend paying share called Northern Rock).

Sorry I meant to reply to Gardie not Truro. As you can tell, I rarely comment on share bulletin boards. I hope this opportunity works out well for everyone concerned.

Thanks Truro. I would never have found that. There is little information available on the web to make an informed decision but I do think that the market maker in collaboration with the company must know something to set the share price at its current value. It shot up so fast that they could have let it settle anywhere between 10p and 50p and still have found sufficient buyers and sellers. They must be confident of the company delivering sustainable and growing annual profit of at least £1million per year.

The market must think that the chance of a successful outcome is low because 5 to 10 million is 20 to 40% of current market cap. I became interested in this company when oak bloke was writing about its potential when it was priced at 7p. I wish I had paid more attention because I didn’t buy. I am selfishly hoping that the bid will drift down to circa 15p on no news but I am also concerned that another announcement may leave me at the station. The potential market massive but I struggle to understand how such a tiny company can deliver it. I have been burnt before and I’d rather have regrets than a tangible loss. Is anyone aware of an unbiased, detailed research/analysis of this company? That information would be very much appreciated.

Lloyds 3rd quarter results today? Any opinion/comment?