Member Info for AquaeSulis01

Doc, essentially announcement that final scale-up of the clinically proven to work anti-ageing ingredient (a lysate called skinbiotix) has been achieved by Croda and which end customers (up to 12 of the magnitude of someone like L'oriel) have been invited to have first to market advantage by incorporating the ingredient into their current or new products

Anyway the Q&As are now out and a couple of the Qs and written responses stood out for me. On the financials for the second half of the year, extracting this statement from the half year report and then relating it to the first Q&A below augers very well for the end of year financials.
"Each division continues to make progress with sales in ProBiotix of £536,225, up 57.5% (H1 2020: £340,429) and PreBiotics sales of £539,819, up 35.6% (H1 2020: £398,271) compared to the same period last year with gross margins increasing from 39.2% to 44%. As in previous years, there was no substantive contribution in this period from license or royalty payments which tend to be received in the second half of the year and increase margins. The Group has renegotiated a number of agreements with both suppliers and customers in H1 2021 which will impact on margins in H2 and more substantially in full year 2022 and beyond."
Q13: H2 revenues have been typically greater than H1, How is 2021 doing so far, compared to last year?
H2 2021 is progressing more or less as planned with growing sales, increasing margins and gross profit.
and on the Sweetbiotix front:
Responses to Qs re Sweetbiotix
We have one partner progressing industrial scale up of one group of SweetBiotix products and they are on track with their sale up plans. OptiBiotix is working to complete a deal with another partner for jointly scaling up and commercialising another group of OptiBiotix own brand SweetBiotix products. We also have a number of companies we are working with on exploring the suitability of SweetBiotix in different application areas via MTA’s and open innovation agreements. These are working in parallel to manufacturing scale up. The aim is that once we have scaled up manufacture we have application partners ready to incorporate in their products . We are still working to get deals across the line with a range of commercial partners
I am still confident on another SweetBiotix deal, hopefully before but most likely after Christmas. As a CEO you try to give investors an indication of he opportunities you are working with, with appropriate caveats, but we cannot predict the future, only hope to influence it.
Finally, the paper awaited for LPLDL:
Q30: When do you now expect the Lpldl paper to be published?
Hopefully before or just after Christmas. the timing is outside our control as its an independent publication submitted by a University.

Theanalyzer, elrico charges £35 per annum and what he doesn't broadcast widely is that he makes significant donations to The Salvation Army
The podcasts are enjoyable to listen to and help flesh out information provided through RNS's etc (attached is a link to an older podcast for skinbiotherapeutics which is free to listen to and will enable you to judge for yourself the nature and style of questioning).
https://soundcloud.com/user-957798193-127487236/sets/skinbiotherapeutics-podcasts
Key differential between Elric and TW is the lack of swearing and elric's in depth knowledge of the six or so companies he researches rather than the broader brush any aim company that catches TW's eye. So if you are interested in Opti, Skin, Open Orphan, Synairgem, Insig AI or Poolbeg Pharma, there are a lot worse ways to spend your money.

Nearer 900,000 but the point being missed by glynBristol is that the target market for the products are the Indian Middle Class who will frequent the modern regulated chains not the corner shop masquerading as a pharma
http://www.jctjournal.com/gallery/106-nov2019.pdf

Should add the good news is that circa 474,029,091 warrants have now been exercised adding £3,883,170.00 to the company's coffers

Only another potential 18,500,000 0.7p warrants to exercise by Friday which is the expiry date

MIDAS has been registered at Companies House and shows Craig as one of two directors
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/13521735/filing-history

The presentation was polished and promise of better and more regular comms in the New Year a big plus. It is still very much jam tomorrow though and the only thing that will really drive share price improvement will be to see the promised bigger partner, higher margin deals reflected in a significant revenue uplift in the accounts and of course delivering on the continually slipping forecasts for sweetbiotix product launches

Bearing in mind the Nov 2020 £1.93M DSTL contract accounted for £0.3M of the graphene revenue for Yr end 31st Mar 2021, and the balance of £1.63M is expected to be paid by end this FY, doesn't that mean it accounts for most of this FYs graphene sales meaning hardly any revenue generated from other sources? Also, the cash position owes much to the once-off £1.93M Graphene Lab investment so things not as healthy as they seem

Probably why it is 60% inaccurate then Larus and hence why the bottom is so difficult to call

You being a trader here researcher I can understand your concern on short term price movements and when the Croda news drops.
My son is a bit of a chartist and told me the following last Thursday "SBTX is still at risk of a death cross. It needs 47p+ tomorrow to avoid it for first thing next week, followed by high 55-60p on Monday (depending on Friday’s trade).
Most technical indicators have about 5-12% accuracy the crosses have around 40%.
The sort of behaviour you get is like what you see at the golden cross (but bullish trend) circled early Jan.
I am not worried about the long term, staggered fall or not it will rise back by March.
Just getting ready to average down should it occur I wouldn’t be surprised with an intra day low of 22p (Worst case: over the course of about 10 days with no RNS and a fall tomorrow and Monday).
The missing Croda RNS could do wonders if it should materialize tomorrow or early next week".

Now I am a long term holder and not a trader in this stock and with two disruptive products on Skins hands have no concern at all about short term price movement, but I would not like to be a trader in this stock but room for us all and good luck with your gamble if you need your money back quickly.

LPLDL has been around a few years now and is gradually building up from a very low base. The catalyst will be the supply of an end product such as cholbiome direct into pharmacies, GPs and Doctor's surgeries, ideally as a prescribed treatment. In the March 2021 Commercial and Strategic Update Stephen wrote "The Company will shortly be publishing placebo controlled human studies which show LPLDL® can achieve similar reductions in total cholesterol and LDL (bad cholesterol) to statins, without any side effects". 8 mths later we still await this publicised study, and I have posted a written question for Wednesday's Investor meet to try and find out what has happened to this study and what Stephen meant exactly by shortly.

As the world’s first ever malaria vaccine is approved, we cannot let it be the last
Rather than marking the end of a very long journey we need to view the vaccine's arrival as the beginning of an important new one
3 December 2021 • 10:03am
Seth Berkley
It now seems highly likely that for the first time in decades malaria cases are significantly on the rise. While this may prove to be just a temporary blip caused by Covid disrupting malaria programmes, in the long-term it could be a taste of things to come.

Even by conservative estimates, climate change threatens to make malaria an increasingly common disease for a growing number of people, including those in the UK.

Rising global temperatures and changing weather patterns are expanding the range of this ancient disease, such that by the end of this century it could reach northern parts of Europe and America, putting as many as 8.4 billion people at risk, double the number in 2000.

Given that efforts to eliminate malaria, after two decades of incredible progress, began stalling six years ago, GSK’s malaria vaccine, RTS,S, could be a game changer and the additional tool we need to avoid this scenario. Nearly 35 years in development, and more than a century since the search for a malaria vaccine began, it is the first significant new addition to the malaria prevention toolbox in years.

But rather than marking the end of a very long journey we need to view the arrival of this vaccine as the beginning of an important new one, because alongside existing interventions it will take not one but a range of vaccines to ultimately eliminate malaria. So while RTS,S is the first ever malaria vaccine to be approved, we cannot let it be the last.
One reason we need more vaccines is that RTS,S is not as efficacious as we’d like. In phase 3 trials it was found to reduce clinical malaria cases by 39 per cent, and severe malaria by 30 per cent, and that was only after four doses and on top of other measures like insecticide treated bed nets. If a Covid-19 vaccine produced similar results it would not get World Health Organization (WHO) approval for emergency use.
However, given the prevalence of malaria, with over 238 million cases and more than 400,000 deaths a year, even with such modest efficacy the potential impact is huge. In fact, for every 200 children vaccinated one life could be saved. Therefore, if included with routine childhood immunisation programmes it would be the third most impactful vaccine in terms of lives saved.

With 260,000 African children under the age of five dying from malaria annually, and six Gavi-supported countries accounting for 50 per cent of global mortality, this is why Gavi took the historic decision yesterday to fund this vaccine; it means in sub-Saharan Africa we will have another tool in their armoury to fight this deadly disease.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/worlds-first-ever-malaria-vaccine-approved-cannot-let-last/

Nick, last time I checked, elric most certainly was not a representative of SBTX although he could more accurately be described as an advocate for the company as are many LTH's who believe in the company and its future. To that end I would suggest it might be useful to sum up the facts and observations that led to the pre-launch share price progression:

Facts
The Consumer Study results were excellent with over 72% improvement recorded
There are 7.5 Million people with psoriasis in the USA alone
There are 409,808 USA NPF people registered on their mailing list with an average age of 49 and 54% are 35-60 years old
https://www.psoriasis.org/npf-mailing-list/
Axisbiotix has launched on schedule and Stuart is pleased with the way the initial launch has gone
Observations
Axisbiotix, from the evidence produced in the testimonials where long term sufferers have reported spectacular results never achieved with other treatments, indicates Skin have a disruptive product on their hands
For every regular 1000 subscribers £600,000 per annum revenue is generated and margins are greater than 50%
Just one percent (75,000) of 7,500,000 USA psoriasis sufferers eventually signing up will generate £45,000,000 revenue per annum
Conclusion
If you believe the product is superior to other treatments on the market then the investment case on this product alone is compelling, and then there is also skinbiotix and Croda. I don't do short term share price movements as I leave that to the charting experts, but I feel pretty confident about where I believe the share price will be post full 2022 FY results and it is a little bit more upbeat than Cenkos

Well that was a nice ECR Advent Calendar surprise when I opened today's window, looking forward to the rest of the pre-Christmas news

Stuart has previously mentioned on more than one occasion that he is not allowed by the NOMAD to forecast on future recurring revenue based on expressions of interest. As a minimum two months supply are currently being issued to all customers placing an order, Stuart will not have any idea of how many become repeat orders for some months to come so just accept it jimmy and get realistic. There is one group that have no inside information, Cenkos, who in their infinite wisdom have decided to discount any revenue in 2022 from Croda and set the sales revenue of axisbiotix at just £1.2M which equates to 2000 subscribers in their latest note which may explain in part the recent share price action. So, if you believe the pessimistic Cenkos note sell away even though they still have skin as a buy, otherwise if you believe sales by the end of 2022 will be somewhat higher and have the funds to spare, fill your boots while you still can

Certainly Tom W seemed happy enough following his chat with Stuart so it's passed the Bear test

"...and then I discuss, at length, Skinbiotherapeutics (SBTX) after a chat with CEO Stuart Ashman today and on the back of that I have bought more shares in the company."

Blimey, just need an announcement that we have hired Phil the "Power" Taylor to throw the rest of the darts and we'll have a shed load of more bullseyes to come

Wonder if that means we will get news on a sweetbiotix deal either leading up to the Investor Meet or an the day? If we don't I will certainly be asking about the number of Material Transfer Agreements with large partners that were expected to be reported as deals in H2 during the last investor Presentation on the 9th September

None of my growth stocks have done well recently; two junior mining companies, hydrogen, health care and even Opti who issued a cracking RNS today have barely moved. I am also struggling to understand what the disappointing news is that you are talking about when you refer to Skin, certainly nothing in the RNS to cause an adverse reaction and share turnover remains small despite the flood of Opti shares onto the market. What exactly was promised by the company that has not been delivered?