Member Info for AquaeSulis01

Well having read the trading update before the Markets opened I expected a minimum 10% rise so can anyone provide an explanation for today's tepid response?

Hi belgrano, it is fair to say that just about every early revenue generating growth stock has fallen by similar margins creating lots of choice for investors. What differentiates both Skin and Opti from most other growth stocks is the certainty of some positive short term news; the Croda launch in the case of Skin and maybe decent subscription numbers for axisbiotix when the March Half Year Report is produced, whilst Opti will surge on Sweetbiotix launch news, good financials in the EOY Unaudited report expected next month, and of course if the value of its Skin investment bounces back.
Here's hoping for a double celebration by end of March

Hopefully a much improved Stakeholder Engagement and Communications Plan on the way

Let's hope they put their money where their mouth is and start buying some Ceres stock then

elrico, accept there has been no delay to the planned launch date which was always scheduled for an unannounced date in 2022. There is some confusion though over the completion date of the scale-up to 20000 litres which is a vital step on the commercialisation journey and has not yet concluded when the inference from previous SBTX comms was that scale-up would be achieved in Sep 2021. Personally, I believe there has been a misunderstanding over the September date and it represented the start of the final manufacture scale-up rather than its conclusion, further evidenced by the reported handover from Sederma to Croda premises to commence the process. Consequently, whilst final scale-up is on the critical path, it has not necessarily impacted parallel activities such as marketing in preparation for the launch date

The issue is that there has been no acknowledged delay Belgrano, and we were told in the EOY results no impact on scale-up
"Throughout this collaboration, Sederma has identified additional potential scientific and marketing claims for the end ingredient. The eventual claims will be an important component of the launch and long-term commercial success of the ingredient. To this end, Sederma is continuing its lab work to further substantiate these additional potential claims. This work is not impacting the manufacturing scale-up. The Group continues to anticipate 2022 as the period for initial royalty revenues."

Cliostock, yes of course whilst sentiment has changed the company still has two disruptive products on its hands which will lead to the anticipated revenues that will warrant a much higher share price for the patient investor.
However, it is not just sentiment driving the downward spiral, we now have institutionalised high and rising inflation where early low revenue generating growth companies are unable to pass on their higher costs through sales; look at similar pullbacks at Ceres and ITM Power for instance.
Also, whilst Stuart has said there has been no slippage in Croda's Project Plan, then what that tells me is that the company built in extended "safety" float into their plans; for instance when it came to completion of final scale-up originally the language focused on the earliest date it would happen as late as Aug 21 and subsequently is now directing investors towards the end of the float period . So, it is understandable that investors feel things have changed and certainly they have because any delay in achieving profitable revenues means higher costs that cannot be passed on.
"In the update, SkinBioTherapeutics said partner Croda and its active ingredients arm, Sederma, “continue to progress the development” of the firm's SkinBiotix technology as the basis of a new skincare product.

The project is progressing through the manufacturing scale-up. It hopes to be able to produce 20,000 cubic metres by next month, which would be the final step towards commercialisation."
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/958099/skinbiotherapeutics-gears-up-for-launch-of-psoriasis-treatment-in-q4-product-could-have-applications-across-a-range-of-skin-conditions-958099.html

Nov Results RNS
"During the course of the year Sederma updated SkinBioTherapeutics that it had made significant progress against the key collaboration milestones. Lysate production had been optimised and analytical sample screening and formulation work had been completed. Manufacturing scale-up from 1 litre to 600 litres had been completed successfully and with the formal handover of the project from Sederma in Paris to Croda's manufacturing facility at Ditton, near Widnes, the final scale-up to 20,000 litres is now being progressed. This is the capacity required to mass produce the SkinBiotix® product at industrial levels to market to Sederma's portfolio of 12,000+ global cosmetic customers."

In this era of raging inflation it's all about positive news and financials whilst the rhetoric has gone from speculation around 25000 subscriber targets and Croda beauty parade announcements at the end of 2021 to soft launches and croda news sometime in 2022 so little wonder the sp has dropped.

I remain a substantial holder here but unlike others have not sold down my Opti holding to fund increased holdings here as the knife was falling and realistically, Opti with its EOY announcement due in Feb and Sweetbiotix announcement now finally imminent, is favourite to spectacularly re-rate in the short term

Well, let's hope the Antman is right
https://twitter.com/hashtag/sweetbiotix
Ant_Man
@online_antz
·
17 Jan
#OPTI stars are aligning for OPTI’s #Sweetbiotix revolutionary ’sweet’ fibre technology, as the industry look for innovative - highly disruptive technology for the $120bln pa Sugar/Sweetener market -Gamechanger!

Tate & Lyle pledges to take action on fibre
bakeryandsnacks.com
Tate & Lyle pledges to take action on fibre
The ingredients specialist is the latest to sign up to the UK’s Food and Drink Federation’s (FDF) Action on Fibre.
Ant_Man
@online_antz
·
29 Dec 2021
#OPTI 45p paid??

?3x £1m pa deals signed in Dec alone
?100% YoY sales growth
?Revolutionary 2nd Generation technology #Sweetbiotix deal expected in Jan
?SEED (Partner) IBS trial result’s due Jan/Feb
?Low cost business model (likely to be Profitable in 2022!)

I agree that the 2021 eoy results (unaudited expected next month) will act as a major catalyst to the sp.

Bearing in mind that the half year revenue had grown to £ 1.076M , with the following further second half revenue growth factors, I expect the final revenue figure to be circa £3M :
I. Growing sales with existing partners by extending product lines and territories. These include:-

a. The launch of Bioslim, a Very Low-Calorie Diet (VLCD) weight management product with Arrotex Pharmaceutials, Australia's largest privately owned pharmaceutical company and the Optiman brand containing OptiBiome in July 2021 with Optipharm.

b. The extension of Holland & Barretts SlimExpert own brand range of SlimBiome® from three to eight in March 2021.

c. Territory expansion for DS-01 containing LPLDL® with Seed Health to support their ambitious growth plans.

II. Growing sales with large partners in key strategic markets (e.g India, China, USA etc).

As in previous years, there was no substantive contribution in the period from license or royalty payments which tend to be received in the second half of the year.

Posted by skipsharer on the skinbio bb but probably more applicable here with the likes of wellbiome providing fibre
"… for new treatments for autoimmune diseases blamed on Western diets. It’s the microbiome again:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/jan/08/global-spread-of-autoimmune-disease-blamed-on-western-diet"

Thanks mol hadn't realised that was still running

Are you talking about Seed Health elric, if so their DS01 product contains not just LPLDL but also all these other ingredients so as a clinical trial is probably irrelevant to LPLDL?

Digestive Health / Gut Immunity / Gut Barrier Integrity Probiotic Blend
37.0 Billion AFU
Bifidobacterium longum SD-BB536-JP

Bifidobacterium breve SD-BR3-IT

Lactiplantibacillus plantarum SD-LP1-IT

Lacticaseibacillus rhamnosus SD-LR6-IT

Lacticaseibacillus rhamnosus HRVD113-US

Bifidobacterium infantis SD-M63-JP

Bifidobacterium lactis SD-BS5-IT

Bifidobacterium lactis HRVD524-US

Lactobacillus crispatus SD-LCR01-IT

Lacticaseibacillus casei HRVD300-US

Bifidobacterium breve HRVD521-US

Bifidobacterium longum HRVD90b-US

Bifidobacterium lactis SD150-BE

Limosilactobacillus fermentum SD-LF8-IT

Lacticaseibacillus rhamnosus SD-GG-BE

Limosilactobacillus reuteri RD830-FR

The real benefit from the study was outlined in the 5th Aug 2021 RNS:
" The publication of a placebo-controlled human study which shows that LPLDL® can achieve similar reductions in total cholesterol and LDL (bad cholesterol) to statins, with no reported side effects. This has been with the editorial board of a peer reviewed journal for a number of months. COVID publications are currently being prioritised by editors but we expect this to be published in H2. Publications on how a product works, its safety and efficacy, are important to pharmaceutical partners who may wish to sell LPLDL® as a drug, or Over the Counter (OTC) in high value hospital, GP, and pharmacy channels."

Ski, from the March Commercial and Strategic Update the study is considered the equivalent to a stage II pharma study

"LPLDL® drug biotherapeutic: The Company has employed Christopher Nother on a part time consultancy basis to explore the use of LPLDL® in pharma, either as an 'over the counter' (OTC) product, or a drug biotherapeutic in markets outside the USA. LPLDL® has already received an investigational New Drug Approval with Seed Health for a Phase II pharma clinical study. The Company will shortly be publishing placebo controlled human studies which show LPLDL® can achieve similar reductions in total cholesterol and LDL (bad cholesterol) to statins, without any side effects. Early discussions suggest that ProBiotix's existing humans studies provide safety, tolerance, and efficacy comparable to that typically seen in a Phase II pharma study. If this is confirmed the risk, timeline, and costs to develop LPLDL® as a drug biotherapeutic is substantially reduced. Chris is currently assessing the costs and timelines to develop LPLDL® as a drug biotherapeutic and the potential to create a biotherapeutic drug division or separate Limited company to fully exploit the opportunity and potential for significant upside."

No-one from the company is saying ditch the statins, but there is a large number of people with high cholesterol who are unable or unwilling to take statins long term for which LPLDL would be an ideal alternative
https://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2019/02/14/failure-to-take-statins-leads-to-higher-mortality/
"A lot of patients with arteries clogged by cholesterol aren’t taking their statins, Stanford researchers have found. That boosts their risk of death, according to a new study.

More than a third of patients with cardiovascular disease who have been prescribed statins to reduce cholesterol failed to take them daily, according to a review of Veterans Affairs medical records. Women and non-whites were least likely to take their prescriptions, as were the oldest and youngest patients."

Getting the message out there
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/971417/optibiotix-health-says-latest-study-supports-case-for-lpldl-as-an-alternative-to-statins-971417.html

mol, I suggest the wording in that risk was somewhat economical with the truth or more likely had not been updated from the interim results stage. Also in the EOY Report was the following "The Functional Fibres division (SlimBiome®, OptiBiome® and WellBiome®) grew sales by 151% to £557,539 (2019: £222,235) despite the challenging trading environment created by COVID-19, which limited our partners' ability to innovate, formulate and launch new products during the year. The division delivered positive EBITDA of £67,271, compared with an EBITDA loss of £451,572 in the previous period.



The Probiotic division, our wholly owned subsidiary Probiotix Health Ltd (LPLDL®), increased sales by 107% to £821,126 (2019: £397,831), despite a number of customers postponing product launches or temporarily shifting their focus to immune health products in response to the Coronavirus pandemic. The division generated positive EBITDA of £88,762, compared with an EBITDA loss of £467,704 in 2019."

At the half year stage SOH commented that "Whilst uncertainty within the global economic environment will create challenges, we believe that our proven strategy of working with multiple partners, across different application areas and geographies within the healthcare sector, will limit the risk related to any individual deal, product, or geography, and we look forward to continued further progress over the year as a whole." This followed First half revenue growth of £744,821, a five times increase in revenues from H1 2019 (2019: £148,818). However, at year end the growth had fallen to 100% over 2019 despite the fact that with royalties waited towards the second half revenue growth normally accelerates (see 2019 v 2018 which was 5 times higher than the first half ) and this more accurately reflects the impact of Covid.

Now the really good news is that with the share price could quite easily rocket by 50% back to the mid 60p level as soon as next month when the preliminary eoy results are released if the second half compared to first half growth to include royalties is anything like the trend reflected in the 2019 accounts; a tall order but who knows?

Great news that LPLDL study has finally been released and should accelerate pharma sales of the end products in India and Italy

And just to reinforce the covid impact on payment lead times in todays Times:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/barclays-urges-late-paying-large-firms-to-settle-up-2hzncljtc

One of Britain’s biggest banks has called on the “social conscience” of large businesses to encourage them to settle bills to small and medium-sized suppliers on time.

Barclays said that the late payment of commercial debts was damaging cashflow, preventing new hiring opportunities and investment and in some cases putting suppliers’ survival at risk.
The lender said that more than nine in ten medium-sized companies — those with 50 to 249 staff — were waiting on overdue invoices to be paid. The figure across all small and medium-sized companies was three in five, while two in five said that they were more likely to experience late payments because of the pandemic.
Four in five of the 500 surveyed business owners who had experienced poor payment

Not great advice belgrano; didn't these same sort of tactics from Opti Shareholders cause huge problems and delays with their partners

I get that elrico, and as double digit royalties only start at 10% could easily be much higher and will be if sales take off based on the tiered model