Member Info for AquaeSulis01

Yes should be there by the end of the year

Yes we do have a pretty good idea Toyin, the RNS tells us sales have increased 355% since the soft launch so that is less than £100K or over a £1.1M miss

Malco, frustrating but also a quick way to the poorhouse selling at the bottom. Always worth ignoring market sentimentality sometimes and looking at the basics. Opti's M/c is just £28M, has £3.2M cash at end Dec, £1.1M prebiotic sales already hit and likely to at least double by the end of the year with the THG contract alone, 20% of skin worth £11.8M, 48% of Probiotix likely worth circa £10M and with the Sweetbiotix launch to come. If you find a company with such low risk to potential future reward at the current market price then make sure you let us all know

Toyin, yes I too believe things will come good but I think it stretches belief to think that just 6 weeks ago the Company and NOMAD still thought it was possible to go from a few hundred soft launch subscriptions to the 10000 subscriptions necessary to hit a £1.2M revenue figure by Jun 2022 with the small team they had in situ. Consequently, the current M/C of £58M is probably about right for a company with £3.2M cash @ end Dec and £1.2m rev aspirations probably now nearer the end of the year, with the Croda announcement to come. Compare this with Opti's M/c of £28M, also £3.2M cash at end Dec, £1.1M prebiotic sales already hit and likely to at least double by the end of the year with the THG contract alone, 20% of skin worth £11.8M, 48% of Probiotix likely worth circa £10M and with the Sweetbiotix launch to come.

Phat the facts appear to be that £22K was the revenue for the year ending 2021 but that sales have increased 335% since the initial use of influencers but that is still revenue of less than £100K so how long it takes to achieve £1.2M is something no-one can predict as this is new territory for skin

The real issue has been that passive sales of axisbiotix through reliance on the NPF "Partner" and its membership has not taken off as well as hoped I suspect. Targeted marketing through influencers will and is accelerating sales but how quickly this gains meaningful traction is the great unknown and the fear will be that sales continue to grow steadily rather than spectacularly from a very low base which Opti shareholders know all about.
However, on the plus side axisbiotix does work very well with customer retention at 70%, and the skinbiotix product will launch at the end of this year. Other product news re acne, and oral products is also expected in the not too distant future

Phat, as a good friend of mine has pointed out, Stuart shelled out to rent a 10000 sq m warehouse when all he needs is a four drawer cabinet to store axis based on current sales. He has obviously been over optimistic on the influence and membership numbers of the Psoriasis Society "Partner" and now has some serious marketing to do in order to catch up on sales

Hopefully not yet. I can remember when all the talk was about seeking a second supplier for axisbiotix to keep up with the psoriasis demand

So will the shares be admitted to AQSE and PBX be declared on Thursday 31st Mar or Friday the 1st of April?

Providing you held opti shares on the 24th March and bought them before that date, yes.

My guess is that based on the indicative m/c and 35% set-a-side for shareholders, suspect based on 1 pro share for roughly every 3 opti shares held will probably be worth 6-7p per share at launch price but of course it is what it is worth in 9 months time that counts. Anyone else have any thoughts on likely value?

Von Der Leyen live just reminding the EU that as they move away from Putin's gas that the infrastructure they use today can be used for Green Hydrogen in the future

Thanks for the advice all. H&L do show a message against XC that states just had to hold them prior to the XC date opening not cop on the record date

So as this is XC rather than XD you are saying this make no difference despite the Opti RNS stipulating you must be on the register at cop Friday rather than market open?

Igor, unlikely to see much in the way of price movement until Monday as investors have to stay on the register until cop Friday to qualify for the dividend in specie

Thanks for the response elrico and we are definitely on the same page.
What we will get is confirmation of the Nov-Dec actual soft launch figures and revenue which in conjunction with any £1.2M achievable revenue forecast by Jun restatement will enable shareholders to do their own calculations about what this means in terms of the rate of increase of projected subscribers in the absence of any company provided subscriber projections.

elrico,
I think to be fair to oleric's comment re the £1.2M sales forecast which has already been stated as achievable in the Feb RNS, a simple restatement of that figure being on track for June would be highly significant if you take my previously posted calculations (re-produced below) as reasonable?
"Well, I for one will be extremely happy to see sales of £1.2M by end of Jun 2022 which I base on the following assumptions:
1. Nov-Feb soft launch, largely UK based, where according to order number trackers on this BB subscription rate is likely to have been on average circa 500 per month.
2. There will be no Croda income in H1 2022, it will likely fall in H2 starting with the VIP clients.
3. There has either been a buy one get one free offer on axisbiotix or currently a sale which means the average cost of axis for an individual subscriber is circa £30 per month.
4. Four soft launch months at £30 * 4*500 = £60,000 revenue
5. £1.2M - £60,000 = £1,140,000 and to achieve this balance subscriptions will need to have risen to an average just below 10,000 per month over the four month period for March-June, which sound pretty spectacular to me if achieved."

I should add, it's also why I feel confident that overall the collective Opti+Pro share price will increase as a result of the split once the dust settles

lord, SBTX was a non-revenue generating part of Opti when spun out whilst Probiotix contributes half of the current revenue.

Now simplistically, if the market takes the view that half the company is being spun out and the opti price halves or worse/better to compensate for whatever price the pro side of the house trades at, then I shall dive in for the simple reason that the second generation products remain with Opti as does the skin holding

lord, the dividend in specie is the major difference with the skin spinout from a shareholder in opti perspective. Long term there is no reason why both Opti and Pro do not both thrive and appreciate in value but as you say short term anything could happen and I have already hedge my bets to allow for this. I have no intention of purchasing a single additional Pro share post the float but if the opti share price on its own drops significantly following the split I will be filling my boots

Thanks for the summary elrico, and you pose some interesting points for Opti investors to consider, at least in the short term.
Where the comparison with OO differs is that at the time OO shares were riding on a crest of a wave with the company more than fairly valued based on further spin outs and anticipated premium covid contracts. Also, the poolbeg spinout is a pure speculative play without established revenues. Opti shares at the time of its spinout announcement were at rock bottom whilst the Probiotix spinout is already revenue generating and likely to be profitable by the time the next accounts come around with the ramp up in marketing raising LPLDL profile, so how much further can they fall post spin out is the question?
My personal opinion is that the opti element of the sp will likely fall with half the revenue value of the company transferring out, but will it be more than compensated by the eventual value assigned to probiotix?
Also, as we know, skin announce their results next week and if the signals for axisbiotix sales are positive and drive the share price up, so the value of optis 20% holding rockets which should see a quick re-rate in turn of any Opti share price drop. Then of course should we finally get news of sweetbiotix launches.....