H&L New Research4 Mar 2022 08:41
ITV is accelerating its digital strategy. The plan is to double digital revenue to £750m by 2026. Part of that rests on the upcoming launch of ITVX - a subscription based streaming service that will offer ad and ad-free versions.
The shift makes a lot of sense. ITV has long depended on broadcast advertising revenue, and as viewers are swapping to on-demand options, so too are marketing budgets.
ITV has tens of thousands of hours of popular content to beef up an on-demand streaming catalogue, thanks to hits like Love Island, Coronation Street and I'm a Celebrity. There's also a host of other popular shows across its family of channels including ITV2 and ITVBe.
We can't knock monthly active user (MAU) growth of 19% - rapidly approaching the 10m mark. That's thanks to strength across BritBox (the joint streaming venture with the BBC) and ITVHub, although the group has some mountain to climb when you consider Netflix is currently sitting on 222m subscribers.
ITV also has a Studios business, which makes and distributes shows in the UK and abroad. Some of these are sold back to ITV's Media & Entertainment business, but other blockbusters like Line of Duty are made for others. ITV retains the rights to huge slate of produced global content. Studios makes up just over half of total revenue, and we think there're real growth opportunities. Our new binge-watching cultures mean established streaming giants and other channels are desperate for high quality content. Being a go-to provider of this has its benefits.
But we do have some concerns. Running a production company doesn't come cheap. Studios makes up only about 26% of group profit, despite the significant amount of revenue it generates. Margins are unlikely to ever shoot the lights out. The likes of Netflix can attest to the cash-pit that content generation can be. To that end it was disappointing, but not surprising to see ITV up its own content spending expectations. We don't think this will be the last time ITV has misjudged its content budget.
Secondly, competition in the streaming space is fierce. The likes of Netflix and Amazon have substantially deeper pockets to throw at growing market share. We simply wonder if today's consumers will be convinced to shell out for yet another monthly subscription from ITV.
But speaking of pockets, ITV isn't exactly in bad shape there. Underlying net debt is equal to 0.3 times cash profit, which gives the group flexibility. Next year's free cash flow comfortably covers the suggested dividend of 5p per share. Remember no dividend is ever guaranteed.
Ultimately, ITV has come a long way. But the longer-term picture becomes muddied by concerns over digital competition and margin compression in Studios. Having the right idea is an entirely different question to being able to deliver the shift fast enough to offset the structural decline in broadcast advertising. The price to earnings ratio of 7.3 is much lower than the long-term average, reflecting these c