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Rory, I'm still here. Always looking in, albeit occasionally. A link up sounds good, anywhere will do for me. Been quite a few years on this site now, along with you and a few others. Some have gone and God Bless them. Take care all.
With the history of this share - who knows, I definitely don't. I sold recently and have my stake back plus a few spondoolicks! However, I kept some to have a foot in the game. I see the 2021 results are out Feb 28th, should be interesting. If the SP carries on like this, they must be expecting good news - return of the dividend? Buy back? Good luck all and, stay safe.
Hi FBS, I thought we might have been over these big swings in the price. How foolish I am. Even though I've been here since 2008, you would think I would be used to it. It continues to surprise me. Someone must be making a lot of money, I know it isn't me, but at least I am ahead of the posse :-). Still good to see some 'old' names popping up. To PCD's we have seen this all before and you are right, it is a point in time and at least it is moving forward - remember the 5-8c days! before the 30:1 split. Take care all, stay safe and healthy for Christmas and lets hope we see 2022 finally deliver this share around €6-7.
Davy View
Impairment charges in 2020 far outpaced the increase in Stage 3; key aspects of the Irish economy, like economies elsewhere, have proven far more resilient than initially thought – aided by early intervention and state support. Our review of the current state of play indicates that existing guidance for 2021 is too conservative, with lower impairments supporting earnings in the coming years. We also assess valuations in the context of potential accretion and believe that significant upside remains.
Asset quality remains stronger than anticipated
Asset quality was broadly unchanged in Q1 compared to FY 2020, with non-performing loans (NPLs) broadly unchanged on an underlying basis and payment breaks continuing to roll off. Macro-economic assumptions will be reassessed as part of H1 and appear too conservative on both a base case and across weighted averages for base/upside/downside. Changes in macro-economic assumptions, together with a reassessment of the provisions required for loans that previously availed of payment breaks, will present opportunities for lower charges. For now, we do not forecast outright write-backs but believe the possibility remains given the scale of charges recognised during 2020.
Lower impairment charges versus guidance
Our previous forecasts were broadly in line with company guidance. We now believe this position is too conservative for the reasons outlined above. We lower our 2021 impairment forecasts by 34% for AIB, 40% for BOI and 50% for PTSB. We also forecast lower charges in 2022 and 2023. This drives material increases in 2021 earnings, particularly for AIB and PTSB. Higher earnings benefit AIB as it increases dividend capability while raising capital levels for BOI and PTSB.
Valuation – significant upside remains
Irish banks are among the best performers year-to-date and over the last 12 months and represent a large about-turn from the picture 12 months ago. We do not believe that valuations reflect the additional earnings that can arise from the prospective transactions that are currently being negotiated. We update our price targets to €3 at AIB (from €2.90), €6.7 at BOI (from €6.5) and €2.1 (from €1.8) at PTSB.
Blimey, I am now in profit also and had my first jab yesterday. Woo Hoo! I just wish I had stayed with my initial buys back in 2008 and not started to think I was the wolf of wall street, buying & selling. If this journey with BIRG has taught me one thing, a career in dealing would not have been good for me! Take care all and to those who we don't hear from anymore, God Bless.
Blimey that is a name from the past. I was one of those who turned up. We were full of expectations in those days, mighty jaded now. I am not too far off breaking even now and will hold for a while longer to see if I go into the black. Keep healthy and safe to all. I would be happy to go back to Mulligans with a few quid in my sky rocket.
Yes dg, I think there are a few of us here like that. Hard to know if it would be best to sell and swallow the loss or hang in there and hope to just get the original sum back. I've been hoping for better times since 2008, maybe it's time to face reality and just sell. Your health is really your wealth, so stay safe all and GL.