Member Info for aprogerson

Let's face it investment in gold/silver/copper et al Explorers, Developers and/or Producers is all about gearing to the marginal cost of production, quantity of metals produced and the underlying metal/s price ... everything else is detail. The difference between Exploders, developers and producers is another layer of risk/reward and time before an asset will be able to be mined (if at all).

My investment thesis is that I am relatively light producers @15% of my PF with HUM and AAZ with the balance on developers and explorers to reflect the fact that I can pick the later up cheap now and hold them as the metals prices rise and profits leverage up accordingly as costs should not change much. I should/would have more allocated to producers now, but both HUM and AAZ have an impressive growth pipeline that I get (almost) for free as the market does not value producers exploration growth potential in the same way they would an explorer.

I like HUM because it is CURRENTLY high cost so is valued cheaply, but has a HUGE x2-3 growth potential over 2-5 years whereas AAZ is half the production of HUM, but far lower cost base with HUGE x3-5 growth potential over 2-5 years. This helps me sleep well at night particularly as AAZ pays a decent 4.5% Divi and I know HUM will do in due course.
AIMHO & ATB APR

@kully I saw some analysis that suggested over 30% of global copper production comes from South America. A brief look at the success of the sort of mine nationalisations being proposed imply chronic underinvestment, an increase in corruption and a steep decline in output.

In a world that will see copper demand triple over the next 10-20 years if the recently published IEA report @https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050 is to be believed then that means that price of iron, copper, cobalt, vanadium, lithium, nickel et al will need to rise substantially to speedup the necessary investment in smaller mines with lower grades just to fill the gap. The nationalistic approach by the populistic governments in waiting will do little to help this situation.
ATB APR

@Gallmat The Scoping Study figures for CAPEX, OPEX and free cashflow are a company maker in their own right. When you combine the Kalaba plant possibilities with the opportunity for sale/JV at one or more 'project' areas across ARCMs licences and the ability that level of FCF gives to fund exploration without further dilution then that is truly transformational.

We are now waiting on the revised Scoping Study information that will be circa 2 months delayed by the time it lands end Jun-21 when I am expecting the 1Mt pa plant to show circa 7.7kt copper @$10k/t and 900t Cobalt @$45k/t given the grades and plant data provided so far. With $10m CAPEX, $20m OPEX on $50m Revenue with no cobalt and $6.5k/t copper that implies massive increase in FCF to circa £61m (yes GBP!) ... that pays for a LOT of exploration !

Full assumption used ref my prior post 16-May-21. However, given that I believe the delays study is due to the inclusion of Cobalt mineralisation in the clay-based free-digging ore body, I am also expecting the $10m CAPEX to also increase substantially as Cobalt processing is complex, but with that sort of cashflow the payback is still at a very attractive months not years level.
ATB APR

@F29 Agreed, I can't imagine the market would appreciate another 'blanket' EA period without some decent justification and/or very limited goals. They have been at this for 18 months so the 'opportunity' cost of an EA with NDAs et al is huge given the current backdrop of a strongly rising copper price. What IS fascinating is the licence reorganisation and what that tells us about the 'shape' of any deal being considered although we still don't know whether it be for sale or JV.

Anyone got access to mapping software that could show the licence ownership and the Copper/scandium overlays in a bit more detail? Some sort of google/sharepoint site for the BB would be very valuable to log and share this stuff.
ATB APR

I really do dislike posters that come on a BB and just challenge everyone with their 'put up or shut up' approach using simple innocuous one-liners when we have been talking about this stuff for months.

We have a solid cadre of active posters and researchers on this BB such as:
> Ella. Ortus, SeisNav & TurtleWax = fantastic research on licences before and after recent changes and what that might mean/imply for transaction discussions
> McAdder & Hierarch = good perspective on mining shares in general
> Shorn, Marco, F29, F79, MasterRSI, Slurms, KullyBahia, Ahktar, Gallmat, Riosurfer, Small_Holding. longfell, orowe, lantier, olderandwiser, TrickyTree = active posters with good viewpoints across a number of areas who challenge our thinking
> Peggy, Graham & Tom = well meaning (I think) counter-intuitive view

I'll stick to my analytical viewpoint and trying to sum things up in a 'Nutshell' where I can for all things ARCM .. I may not be right, but happy to have a go, open the debate & take it on the chin when I get it wrong.
AIMHO & ATB APR

LOL @Slurms apologies I could only recommend your post once and not the double-figures it deserved
ATB APR

@major-tom Lots of reassuringly green empty SB-sized boxes this morning. A triumph and only my 3rd filter ever !
ATB APR

lovely lots of reassuringly green empty boxes

@shadowboxer Posters on this BB are generally a genial, well researched bunch and very accommodating of newbies asking open questions. You however want to just ridicule, abuse and insult rather than constructively engage.

That puts you firmly in the waste of space category = filtered

@Causal Ged Hall was suggesting that the new parallel anomaly was 3x the size of the Big One which if the metallurgy is similar (very likely) suggests the chances of being economic rises significantly.

When I invested in CCZ in Oct-20 it was £62m MCap prior to any drilling so it seems reasonable that a 5-6p SP and £60-70m MCap after more drilling and assays is not unreasonable. Additionally we now know that that they have an additional set of historic drill results and that these are being reflected in their 3D modelling which should enable a JORC MRE in relatively short order which should dispel any further doubts.
ATB APR

@Shadowboxer If you were really interested you would have read the Scoping study RNS with the reference to the metallurgy and flowsheet design in there.
ATB APR

@Kenj They are effectively mining for the bulk minerals namely copper and zinc with the gold as a very valuable by-product.
ATB APR

@Adam Just watching the recent call DB talks about creating shareholder value a lot which equity financing would destroy.
ATB APR

I would use $90m CAPEX and $10m or 11% contingency as the basis. How long was the debt agreement on YAN payback 3 or 5 years and if we assume 7% interest plus full drawdown over the first 12m as the mine is built with capital invoices paid for works when completed after 30% down-payment on order placement then you have the basis for a 'costs' model. That will drive out what needs financing over what period giving an idea of how much FCF can be mobilised to keep debt financing to a manageable minimum.
ATB APR

@edgar Not much to go on without assays as although they cite typical types of gold/silver bearing rock we have no grades or drill lengths to say anything other than the drill hit something mineralised and potentially 'interesting'.
ATB APR

@Allviews Zafar stats given ahead of the upcoming MRE are really interesting especially as it was referred to as 'free-digging'. So far 20km of drilling completed over 40x holes of which 20x were mineralised giving approx. 6Mt ore for:
> 40kt copper @0.6% grade = 40kt @$10k/t = $400m
> 64koz gold @0.3% grade = 64koz @$1,800/oz = $116m
> 40kt zinc @0.6% grade = 40kt @$2.95k/t = $118m
So a nominal metal value of $635m or £460m with drilling and exploration continuing ahead of MRE 'soon'

Discussed fast-tracking Zafar for early production end 2021 or early 2022 plus lots of opportunities to expand resources further whilst processing from the existing Gedabek facilities.

All very encouraging to say the least PLUS mentioned possible announcement of an additional new licence area adjacent to an existing one !
ATB APR

@Kamei and 7% max debt loan for 60% of initial CAPEX costs from Corus sounds cheaper than a %Royalty deal especially given where we all suspect POG direction is going. I also would think that any CAPEX would also include a contingency budget that you get cover for but plan NOT to drawdown.
ATB APR

Yep really good interview @ https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/LON:AAZ/Anglo-Asian-Mining-PLC/

@Kew same here and very happy to hold in anticipation of assay results. Sadly now sub-1% after last placing, but hey-ho still a good chunk!
ATB APR

@Turbo Yes agreed I always say better 50% of something successful than 100% of something that dilutes current shareholders and only benefits the Johny-come-latelies.
Spinning out Broken Hill would also greatly help shareholder value
ATB APR