Member Info for aprogerson

@BT I'm guessing those chunky buys are being sold into by SC
ATB APR

@Bonker That is absolute madness ... $6T is bad in itself, but when you add on what has been done in the last 6-9 months AND they monetise it (which they are already doing) this now drives up M2 money supply which curiously the Fed has stopped reporting on because it went through the roof. Let me look up the definition of "Transitory Inflation" and apply my "Rule of 72" for what high inflation does to the real value of fiat currency.

Commodities are now looking even more attractive so very happy with my PF with 80%+ gold/silver/copper explorers, developers and producers. I just hope HUM gets their debt placed and mine built ASAP so the debt can be inflated away!
Clearly AIMHO & ATB APR

@BB Quite agreed, but doesn't seem to matter what comes out in RNSs the market doesn't believe it which is remarkable given what they have developed so far.
ATB APR

@Daniel If you look at the original RNS from 1-Oct-2018 when the JORC was issued this was for the M2 target before they moved to the adjacent M4 target area where they drilled several deeper holes trying to location the main 'feeder' ore body. What is really interesting is on the M2 drill results they also had elevated gold intercepts between 0.1g/t and 1.6g/t which were not factored into the JORC as I am guessing that the confidence level was too low. It suggests that there may also be gold credits available if they can do further infill drilling and also upgrade the bulk of the JORC from Inferred to Indicated category. Sufficient gold credits would also help the economics enormously albeit at higher CAPEX cost to include a gold circuit in any future plant.

So there are 3x main ways drilling can grow the JORC £value:
1) Infill drilling at M2 to grow size and/or move resource from inferred to indicated category (increase confidence it exists!)
2) extension drilling along strike between M2 and M4 targets and/or bring in resources at M4 IF continuous mineralisation
3) inclusion of gold credits in JORC resource calculations
ATB APR

@Daniel No we have no real information on CAPEX to build the mine, geology which drives OPEX and whether it would be open cast or underground. What we do know is that when decision was taken to suspend Copper exploration it was shelved as 'uneconomic' back when copper was circa $6,500/t.

Let's suppose:
Copper is now circa $10k/t which is an entirely different circumstance given the JORC 'indicates' 19,000t of contained copper. If we assume when project was shelved that cost were an astronomic $123.5m or $6,500/t to build (CAPEX) and run (OPEX) to extract the 19kt of metal that would generate FCF of $3.500/t x 19kt = $66.5m or £48m.

I've no idea where the reality actually is but the REAL issue is how would an £8m MCap Junior Explorer finance this given it will take several years to plan, permit, design, build and commission before it generates any revenue?

What I do know is that GWMO are now actively looking to restart copper exploration with a view to expanding the current JORC resource estimates as they originally did some drilling next to the drilling that underpinned the existing 4.3Mt JORC resource but it was not of sufficient confidence levels to extend the resource ... further 'infill' drilling may resolve that. IF the JORC resource can be grown 2x to 3x existing size then the maths gets a lot easier very quickly as the CAPEX becomes a much smaller proportion of the potential future revenue so a lot less risky for us and any JV partner.

Needless to say IF GWMO can increase the copper JORC this is transformational in its own right especially as we know this target was M2 and to the best of my knowledge there were 8x Copper targets identified in the Huntoon Valley which implies a central mine camp and processing plant may be possible being fed from one or more satellite ore bodies. Let's just not get ahead of ourselves though !
AIMHO & ATB APR

When I first invested in GGP back in Mar-19 I researched neighbouring licences and came across Rincon who were then bought out by Artemis in July-19, but the deal fell through and Rincon went back into obscurity.

I have waited 2 years for an opportunity to invest so was very pleased when GUN bought in heavily in Jun-20, it IPO'd in Dec-20 and I subsequently plucked up the courage to buy some direct on the ASX over the last 3 months ... another few weeks waiting won't faze me as I'm here for the MRE !
ATB APR

@Shaun You must be reading my mail as my whole trading strategy is based around exactly that premise. When I reinvested back into HUM recently it was a toss up between HUM that needs to take on a lot of debt to fund Kouroussa and RSG that currently has a high debt load only because the debt would in essence be inflated away sooner rather than later if inflation does what I suspect it might.

Simply at 2% inflation the value of fiat money will halve in 36 years, at 4% that becomes 18 years, at 6% less than 12 years and at 8% inflation just 9 years. The joy of commodity investing in such a climate becomes very obvious very quickly especially against a backdrop of increasing demand and decreasing supply from mines with ever decreasing grades ... the only solution is higher prices.
This is absolutely not investment advice!
AIMHO & ATB APR

Let's take the points raised one at a time:
> RNS states "Shares payable to the shareholders of Cassidy Gold Corp has been delayed for a short period. A further update will be provided as and when appropriate." Investors need clarity if this threatens the Kouroussa deal or not, so is it 'administrative' or something 'substantive' and if so what has changed and/or will trigger resumption of stated contract requirements?

> Cassidy and HUM have an agreed Term Sheet (contract) with sale conditional on licence which has now been granted with confirmation of contract being fulfilled via RNS 20-May-21 "The Grant triggers the requirement to pay the initial consideration of £10.0 million to Cassidy Gold Corp ('Cassidy'), which will be satisfied by issue of shares in Hummingbird as detailed below." If HUM do not fulfil the contract as per todays RNS and pay the agreed shares are HUM in breach or has something else happened (or not) that is considered a prior breach/non-fulfilment? Clarity would be good

> Once Shares to Cassidy are issued they are subject to lock-in NOT delayed issue until after stated redemption period

In my view anything else is mere detail, supposition or attempts to sow further confusion and drive the SP down.
ATB APR

Issuing an RNS without a reason for delay or what would trigger a resumption of a contractual obligation is to say the least odd. HUM should clarify the situation for investors rather than 'trust us it's suspended for a good reason, but we are not going to tell you'.
ATB APR

sounds like he might have overplayed his hand and been out maneuverered.

@Lukey Hard to say as no idea what the ground conditions are like between the various prospects, but ahead of schedule is always good
ATB APR

@MasterRSI Nothing but serene green boxes for me already more than fed up with the rhetoric
ATB APR

@bushy I suspect you are right and the financing had been prearranged for all the reasons rehearsed on the BB as the directors probably would like to keep their jobs/freedom. Interesting I've always used couriers for important documents ... take hours not days unless they've gone digital ?!
Sit back and wait for the RNS now
ATB APR

Just looked again and the market didn't like it and sold off to $29.2c, I guess having to wait for 2-3 weeks for drill results at Laverton and 5-6 weeks for drill start at Hasties/South Telfer was just too much for some people ... I thought AIM was impatient !
ATB APR

Meanwhile on ASX https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02377180-6A1033958?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
Laverton prospect
> 103x hole 6.416m drill programme complete with assays expected in June (historical best = 7m @15.9g/t gold)

Hasties/South Telfer
> VTEM & GAIP Surveys completed and data modelling underway, results 'in weeks'
> Drill contractor for 5,000m RC programme confirmed to start onsite end June/early Jul-21 for 4 weeks

Rincon trading @AUS$0.30 overnight on low volumes & GUN holds 17.84% or 8.9m shares valued at £1.45m & total costs approx. £727k (RNSs 22-Jun-20 +23-Jun-20 +5-Nov-20 +18-Dec-20 + 25-Jan-21)
ATB APR

@MMoney Agreed, exactly the point I made yesterday about leverage and exploration for free or as I put it an Explorer/developer priced at £70m with a producing mine to pay for the growth.

Whichever way you look at it there is a huge discount on offer and when the extra 100koz comes on stream it won't be at current MCap so (almost) any downside is more than covered. Very happy holding and adding at this SP.
ATB APR

@SeisNav May I ask who that is .. I'm aware of Jubilee but I guess there are other specialist tailings (re)processors?
ATB APR

... or put it another way at HUMs MCap I have bigger Explorers in my PF (ARCM). I like to think of HUM as an Explorer/Developer that happens to have some production to fund aforementioned exploration/development so I avoid dilution.
Again helps me sleep at night
ATB APR

@Crimewriter See my post below Friday @16:47 explaining CCZ SP since Oct-2020 which I think explains the BarChart report and Stockopedia which labels most exploration stocks as sucker stocks as their only source of funding is equity dilution unless they are lucky enough to have a revenue stream.

Like any investing DYOR and get as much knowledge as you can including reading through all the RNSs.
ATB APR

Thanks @AllViews I have often wondered about AAZs tailings given what is happening with long term producer PAF and their move to reprocess historic tailings with much lower 0.3/0.4g/t gold content which was profitable. Also companies like Jubilee who specialise in tailings reprocessing.

Given the 1.7Mt heap leach materials grading 1.35g/t gold that implies up to 81koz contained gold metal potentially available to be extracted ... that's a very nice brucey bonus.

Do you know of anything from AAZ on their plans or comments around this?
ATB APR