Member Info for aprogerson

I just want the fund-raise done and dusted at sufficient scale so we can drill these targets out properly plus a plan for BrokenHill so we get some shareholder value returned in exchange for the dilution. Hopefully then the market will get some decent sentiment behind CCZ knowing that they are well funded.
ATB APR

@Dai Nothing published on ASX new IPOs and not aware of anything from PIRI BB who also hold Low6. Link to ASX:
https://www2.asx.com.au/listings/upcoming-floats-and-listings
ATB APR

Agreed @Copper On but not at any cost ... I just hope the dilution will be worth the extra drilling they have planned
ATB APR

ASX Hotcopper view is Capital Raise is no surprise as last cash position stated funding for 2 quarters https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-trading-halt.6090809/ the issue for me is about letting the SP drop on no action for months so a CR is done at a relatively low SP and risks pushing it lower or raising cash on poor terms.
IMHO Prospects are good, but CCZ planning and timing poor and/or could have spun out Broken Hill 3 months ago
ATB APR

Interesting interview but no mention of the trading halt on ASX ... very odd as no reason given in ASX announcement
ATB APR

@dcgc Yes and I have probably been in denial having cut my exposure by 50% some weeks back I still hold here as I like the story but struggled seeing them lack market traction.
Interesting few days ahead then
ATB APR

Morning @Bonker It's an interesting dynamic highlighted by the fact that HUM has been range bound between 20.5p and 22p for the last 12 weeks at a price equivalent to market lows back in Mar-2020. Compare this with both Major and Junior gold miner ETFs trading @2-2.5x their Mar-20 lows. Resolute Mining (RSG) is the only other African focused miner I know trading at similar levels whereas PAFs SP in South Africa is 2.2x and Shanta 2.1x Mar-20 lows.

Is it one or more of the following 'popular' BB topics ? ...
> 'Dan Betts discount' over-promise and under deliver
> It's Africa and wasn't there a coup in Mali or something?
> Grades & LoM at Yanfolila could be better
> Kouroussa project, don't they need to find $90m+ to build a mine?
> Dugbe project, isn't Pasofino going to take it over?
> At forecast FY2021 of 100/110koz @ $1250-$1350 AISC they will never make any real money

As with all these things there is always a grain of truth or doubt to be played upon, but the simple fact is HUM is highly cash generative at $1750 POG realised in 2020 let along $1900 POG today plus already has considerable risk already priced in at these levels with significant growth prospects already well underway with Dugbe and Kouroussa targeted to add 200koz+ production over the next few years.

I'm not certain what the market needs to see for HUM to start its overdue rerate ... possibly (1) Kouroussa funding and timetable laid out in detail (2) Dugbe JORC significantly upgraded as Pasofino is suggesting (3) Yanfolila AISC to fall below £1250 within the next 6 months ?

Will be interesting to watch as this unfolds especially against a backdrop of steadily rising POG.
DYOR & AIMHO ATB APR

As a timely reminder on MetalTech's Sturec deposit from ARCM's RNS @19-Dec-2019 and concluded RNS 7-Feb-2020:

Resource Upgrade Royalty:
"If, at any time in the period between 19 November 2021 and 19 November 2024, the Šturec JORC Indicated and Measured Resource exceeds 1.5 million ounces gold at a grade greater than 2.5g/t (inclusive of recoverable Ag equivalent), MTC will pay Arc a further A$2 royalty per additional ounce of gold . This royalty is capped at 7 million ounces of gold.

Any consideration due under the Resource Upgrade Royalty may be satisfied in either cash or by the issuance of ordinary shares in the capital of MTC."

MetalTech's latest RNS 1-Jun-2021: @ https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02380409-6A1035123?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
Highlights:
(1) UGA-16 @70m 9.23 g/t Gold & 7.8g/t Silver including ....
> 1m at 584g/t gold (yes 584g/t) & 333g/t Silver
> 2m @13.94g/t Gold & 14.9g/t Silver
(2) Several otehr good drill assay results
(3) MRE expected to be updated by end Jun-2021

ARCMs (Ortac) original RNS from 8-May-2012 stated 1,010 koz GEO (gold Equivalent Ounce) using 50:1 silver to gold ratio in the indicated and measured category with another 300koz in the inferred category for 1.3Moz GEO.

Given the high grades and long intercepts reported to date it is looking good for an MRE upgrade above the 1.5Moz GEO threshold (indicated & measured) where ARCMs royalty of $2/oz GEO kicks in. Note: this 'gift' can keep on giving up to 19-Nov-2024 as more Sturec resource upgrades come through.
ATB APR

@small_Holding Agreed, but for me the shareholding is then about possible %gains with AAL 'maybe' putting on a few %points vs. ARCM growth likely well over 100% in short order. I know whose shares I'd rather hold in that scenario
ATB APR

@Levs welcome HUMs SP is back where it was in Mar-2020 probably driven by current high AISC but with POG at $1,900 rather than $1,600 there is a lot of room for surprises to the upside off a low SP base, no debt and good cash generation. Add in a good dose of growth projects in the pipeline and HUM is well placed for top-line growth and AISC improvements.

Nice combo if they "Don't feck it up"
ATB APR

@cheerfuldoor Looks like Stalker is aiming to get the JORC upgraded in both size and move more from inferred to indicated category with all that infill drilling.
ATB APR

@small-holding Usually this would take the form of a JV rather than a pure NewCo. AAL could earn/buy a % of the JV at a project level with any combination of:
> exploration spend within a set period over one or more 'stages'
> upfront and/or staged £cash payments to ARCM
> Options to buy-out further %JV at future date or on a pre-agreed event at market value
> spend within a set period to reach MRE, DFS and/or 'ready to mine' status
Any JV trades shareholder £value later vs. funding certainty now vs. big name backing & credibility

If we sold a project outright it could be for a combination of cash and/or AAL shares, but would be based on what is known now with any future upgrades accruing to AAL not ARCM. Personally not my preferred route when heading into a copper super-cycle as increased metal value would again accrue to AAL not ARCM.

Clearly ARCM cannot 'go this alone' as the capital costs for building out a Tier 1 copper mine are astronomic ... but so are the rewards so retaining a %share to sell later and/or a %NSR seems sensible!
ATB APR

About time to be honest ... "new 26 drill-hole campaign for 2,828m" at CCZs Big One deposit and "factors in the recent geophysics survey that comprised six 500-700m lines across the 1,200m strike event, is designed to extend known mineralisation and build on previous drill results."

Next Steps:
"· Ensuring logistics are in place so the drilling crew can deploy to site within the next 1-2 weeks so work can commence at the Big One Deposit.
· Finalise the design of the drilling programme for the Arya and Sansa Prospects."
ATB APR

@Tom so around 0.27p cf 0.25p on AIM
ATB APR

Hi Chis, actually a really important issue, but a more important question is will the holders of these shares want to hold or sell? Usually if it is a straight fundraise at the standard 10-15% discount then the funders will want to take a 10-15% profit which probably explains the swing from 0.22p up 16.5% to 0.26p then sold down to 0.22p ... wash & repeat.

This will move on news and if the funders have shares left will likely get sold into. The only way we can tell if the seller has finished is if the SP pops up over 0.265p (resistance since 4-Jan-21) and then has a sustained rise.
AIMHO ATB APR

@Chris Gold has been in a correction since Aug-2020 putting in a double-bottom back in Mar-2021 at $1,676. POGs rise since is to a large extent is inversely tied to DXY which has been on a downtrend since Mar-2020 apart from the bear flag corresponding to POGs correction. DXY has been testing $89.65 to the downside for the last 3 weeks and IF this is breached I am expecting further POG strength.

As POG RSI is elevated I am expecting price to pull back to test downtrend resistance at around $1,850 and confirm this as support, but nothing more given the continuing monetisation of government debt, producer material input price inflation running at 10-25% across the board (see W Buffett's recent comments) that will feed into consumer good inflation over the next 3-6 months plus labour shortages as the economy reopens. The recent US & UK CPI figures are unsettling.

DXY may surprise to the upside as the 'best' of a bad bunch but with rising inflation and CB debt rising considerably faster the Fed has limited scope to raise interest rates and prefers to let inflation run 'hot' above its 2% target as its policy has shifted to targeting 'average' inflation. The backdrop of rising inflation, low or negative interest rates and CB policy backdrop is very supportive for POG ... expect more financial repression not less !
AIMHO & ATB APR

On the weekly chart GWMO has traded in a narrow band between 0.22p and 0.26p for the last 19 weeks. This includes as Placing for £1m at 0.22p on 22-Mar-2021 to expand the 2021 exploration programme and also looks to have put a floor under the price.

Despite numerous call on this BB announcing GWMOs demise the SP has been very well behaved trading at 0.24p +/- 8.3% since 19-Jan-2021 through a period of volatile markets and a very large Placing.
ATB APR

@SiesNav some nice detective work there and to say the correlation between the fault lines and the mineralisation implied by the Cu/Sd mapping is uncanny is an understatement.
ATB APR

@SeisNav Really useful thankyou. Is there a link directly to the Cadestre itself with the overlay so that we can zoom in? I noticed you had annotations are these added to a screenshot or something else?

I only ask as if this approach is amenable to building up a layered view with licence grouping, drill locations and/or Kalaba plant or am I clutching at straws?
ATB APR

@Bushy Jim Rickards put it nearer $15k/ounce if a gold-backed currency reset based on 40% backing of the worlds debt when he made the prediction 2 years ago. As US has been printing money and literally making it go out of fashion that figure is likely to be much higher especially after Biden's recent $7T splurge on top of the other splurges!
Scary stuff ... but in a good way if you own gold miners
ATB APR