Member Info for aprogerson

@TOTC Yes having once held over 1% of GWMO I am very painfully aware of the ongoing dilution of which the "recent" dilution was a surprise. My point is NOT to sit here continually bemoaning the situation, but to look at what is going on and provide my commentary around why I bother to still hold GWMO.

Please read my post and look at the chart rather than pick holes in my phraseology.

ATB APR

GWMO has had its challenges not least of which was the recent surprise £500k capital Raise @0.055p to boost the balance sheet in anticipation of further delays in JV Tailings processing plant licencing approval ... understandable but very unwelcome! This move broke PI confidence and invalidated a building bullish inverse Head & Shoulders pattern https://ibb.co/8BGwNJP which was anticipating a circa Aug-23 licence approval.

IMHO we now have a situation where the JV is building out the processing plant in anticipation of a licencing decision but with some delays to concrete subcon availability so is sensibly derisking and doing it itself albeit delayed. GWMO meanwhile raised £800k in Jan-23 @0.080p and a further £500k in Jul-23 @0.055p to protect its balance-sheet and maintain a £600k JV budget plus its 2023 exploration programme with cash to spare.

IMHO subject to no further hiccups on build or licencing, GWMO has protected the downside with £500k add capital and go-it-alone JV concreting solution which opens up possibility of an SP recovery which will only be driven on good news being delivered. My weekly chart indicates possibility of new inverse H&S target around 0.1075p or 2.2x upside from yesterdays 0.048p close. https://ibb.co/RHJZrTw

GWMO has been a rocky microcap ride but is now on the cusp of becoming a microcap PRODUCER via its extensive historic at-surface gold/silver tailings which have been opened up with an all-weather access road.

I think despite the disappointment of the recent dilution if the JV can be delivered this maybe a compelling entry point for PIs with very high risk tolerance.

ATB APR

FWIW how I perceive what's going on with the weekly chart https://ibb.co/7YYZbj6

IMHO we have a large high-confidence inverse bullish reversal Head & Shoulder pattern forming with neckline around 18.6p which will close the RH Shoulder of this pattern on the back of a very strong bull pennant and implies an upside target of 32.1p

ATB APR

Morning Jarvy, first upload attempt https://ibb.co/26CrT3d so hopefully this is self-explanatory but having followed for some time and given the "waiting for news" backdrop my assertion that we are in an Accumulation phase makes sense (to me at least).

The recent precipitous drop seems to be a collective sign of frustration with lack of JV progress/news but given the recent ministerial "slip" we are at an inflection point ... will it reject or breakthrough to close H&S pattern as I surmise?

ATB APR

Hi Jarvy, a bit too much going on to want to redraw it in another app.

I use IG and can Export to PNG; any ideas how I might publish from there?

ATB APR

@Jarvy I wish I could find a way to share my weekly ARC chart as very different structure to yours but none-the-less very bullish with price now sat exactly on underside of lower bound of long term accumulation wedge at 3.4p and upper bound at 3.8p which will both be short term resistance at this point. I also have a very strong inverted head and shoulders bottoming pattern forming with neckline around 4.5p and implied target of 6p.

Accumulation Wedge:

Wedge lower bound line = 17-Oct-22 @2.95p +20-Mar-23 @3.15p +29-May-23 @3.25p so 3 touches & confirmed

Wedge upper bound line = 2-May-22 @5p +10-Apr-23 @4.2p so 2 touches

Invert H&S bottoming pattern:

Invert H&S neckline = 2-May-22 @5p +30-May-22 @4.7p +17-Apr-23 @4.65p ... LH shoulder and head formed and expecting price to hit neckline around 4.5p in next few weeks and be rejected but return quite quickly to form RH shoulder before it breaks up to target around 6p

ATB APR

@Fulmar thanks for sharing ... now the Zambian Mining Minister is either lying on a live stream or this is now moving to the next stage. I am NOT expecting ARC to issue any RNS as this is not official but none-the-less very, very positive ... how can they issue an RNS and say what exactly?

ATB APR

@JArvy Looks like a solid breakout to me

ATB APR

Nice to see the construction photos and all the process equipment including the process plant diagram so you can see which plant goes where in what sequence. Second hand equipment that is designed to sit outside is going to get rusty ... the important thing is that it is well maintained and get painted regularly.

ATB APR

Nice to see some positive SP action ... would be even better to see some positive conditions precedent newsflow

I've sat on my hands so long I can't feel them anymore!

ATB APR

Mill Construction Update

Great Western (AIM - GWMO, Euronext Growth - 8GW) provides the following update on construction of its mill for producing precious metals in Mineral County Nevada.

· Process equipment assembled adjacent to site and ready to install

· Foundations laid and concreted with retaining walls erected

· Water bore holes and water monitoring wells concreted and complete

· Access roads and laydown area complete

· Final concrete pour to meet environmental standards waiting on contractor

· Assembly and testing of plant will follow final concrete pour

· NDEP site visit for provisional inspection this week

· NDEP approval likely to be delayed by at least two months

· Project costs within budget

No one likes delays to approvals, but at least we have an update and GWMO have taken steps to keep costs under control and ensure site development continues. Good to hear that plant is over-sized and that plant build out will include stage 2 equipment subject to further licencing approvals

ATB APR

@UFO LOL, did you type this is the wrong account on 9-August @12:50 ?

"So I’m not the only one, who don’t trust the board.. just like ufo .. prem delays as I expected"

Multiple accounts can be Soooooo confusing ... not to mention against LSE rules!

@LegalWolf Yes much easier to put MCap Targets but without knowing the denominator ie No of Shares in Issue due to the presence of CLNs the SP predictions become tricky

ATB APR

Thanks for posting StockBox link ... really really detailed Q&A across all aspects and lots of useful titbits that help my understanding of current vs. next steps to 2koz/month vs. possible future opportunities across both Kilimapesa, Vim Rutha and of course Nyakafuru. I found blow-by-blow status of current plant status and limitations very interesting.

Main Takeaways

> Target pre-CAPEX output = 600oz/month

> Target post-CAPEX output = 2,000oz/month ... after 6 months plant upgrades

> Prospectus - await FCA approval and NOT linked to funding CAPEX

> Confirmation underground mine and Plant 2 Tailings are offline & Tailings no plans to restart as HL can be used

> Target Financing - via Royalty deal for some/all of $10.5m CAPEX to expand Kilimapesa mine ie %Net Smelter Royalty on life of Kilimapesa mine so Non-dilutionary

> Nyakafuru - most likely via JV to fund $15m-$25m CAPEX to build mine

ATB APR

@ItsYou Re-running your calculations/commentary:

Mill/CIL = 38,543kt * 2.23 g/t * 78.7% recovery /31.1 = 2,175oz .... not 2,630 oz

Heap Leach = 12,177kt * 1.26 g/t * 45% recovery /31.1 = 222oz ... not 243 oz

Total = 2,175 + 222 = 2,397oz ... not 2,630oz

Reported 1,645oz sales

Difference = 752oz .... not 985oz and may reflect ore being stockpiled rather than processed given 2 week plant shutdown

My interpretation is these are gold SALES not gold PRODUCTION so gold that was still in the production cycle last month and/or unsold gold was carried forward into this month; also HL cycle could easily be longer than a month so ore loaded this month may not come through as gold until extracted next month or whatever!

I could easily be wrong as reporting is not categoric, but otherwise that is a large discrepancy

ATB APR

@ID78 Sadly POG took a drubbing as DXY reversed around key 100 support but not sure how much longer this can continue given FED just drew down £1T+ to top-up their "current account" as interest rate servicing cost very likely to top $1T as most of their short term debt needs to be refinanced at significantly higher rates. See US Debt Clock . org

The BRICS 22-August African Conference will be instructive if a gold-backed trade currency is announced as many suspect and may lead to some serious POG volatility to the upside as the COMEX/LBMA paper price suppression (paper to physical gold ratio is 126:1 !!!!) becomes ever harder against a fast dwindling supply of physical metal backing their paper trades as more CBs opt for physical delivery. Most Central Banks are buying physical gold as it is now a Tier 1 asset with zero counterparty risk and cannot be cancelled or appropriated and has nothing to do with the US-controlled SWIFT system.

I consider the 1.3Moz gold that GCAT has in the ground being worth somewhat more than their current £6.6m MCap suggests ... how much a share current investors keep is the BIG question on my mind given opaque (re)financing discussions.

ATB APR

@FillToSpill Yes clearly "high-grading" at Open Pit as underground mine is on C&M as is Tailings Plant.

Simply they are maximising cashflow as demonstrated by steadily improving $1,218 AISC giving very healthy $700+/oz margin whilst minimising OPEX (high cost bits on C&M) but finding room for some limited but impactful CAPEX delivering +2.7% on main plant recovery.

Nice job in very difficult circumstances

ATB APR

Good solid progress RNS is what they needed and what was delivered, however no Financing timeline as dependant on FCA approving Prospectus.

GCAT a "going concern" ?

IMHO has now been addressed as they are clearly producing a decent amount of open pit ore at historically consistent grades whilst maintaining a decent output despite having serious mill outages as reported.

MILLING/GRAVITY/CIL plant:

GCAT are demonstrating that they can still afford to invest in the plant by installation of the standby generator significantly increasing plant availability (81% to 89%) & additional CIL tank increasing recoveries (up 2.7% to 78.7%)

TAILINGS plant:

Still offline but would recover 50% of what was left if running taking overall recovery to 88%-90% when economic to do so.

Financing:

We already know financing takes at least 6 months, but is dependant on approval of the Prospectus so is anyone's guess the FCA will approve since Apr-23 submission.

ATB APR

@swampy 100% agree gold in ground and slowly being extracted with a view to extracting it faster is far more preferable that holding rapidly depreciating fiat currency.

Gold and silver are money ... fiat currency is just paper backed by government promises, governments are 100% liable for inflating the currency in circulation hence driving inflation .... CPI is a government tinkered measure of rising prices and absolutely not inflation per se as Governments would like us to think the blame lies elsewhere

ATB APR

BH has repeatedly stated that they are pressing on with JV Mill construction after having had approval to construct, but await licence approval to operate. BH is anticipating licence to Operate in August but this is out of his control as stated many times, so assuming that BH is correct then GWMO is planning first revenues this year. To get first revenues teh following will need to have happened before end Dec-23 in no particular order:

> Licence to operate mill granted

> Mill Stage 1 gravity separation - plant refurbishments & build completed

> Mill Stage 1 gravity separation - commissioning completed

> 3rd party subcontract/s agreed - to dig & deliver tailings to mill site

> Tailings stockpile established - sufficient tailings built up to continuously feed mill

Everything else is detail ... MCap and SP will do their own thing but SP very likely to recover fast as the above start getting ticked off the "To Do" list

ATB APR