Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
@SuePud thanks for posting Zak's interview with BH ... he sounds almost excited which is saying something
Key Takeaways for me:
> Targeting plant completion Aug-23 "synchronised" with expected permit to operate
> Progress towards JV process plant completion "all good"
> BH has plant build photos but "a bit of a mess as it is a construction site and it is what it is"
> Jaw crusher can handle 60t/day vs initial plant capacity only 5t/day
> plant is relatively straightforward to scale up and site is large
> JV partner Muletown is a "pleasure to work with" and "just get things done"
> surrounding area is lots of historic mines and tailings that can be processed through JV site
> GWMO is very unusual as a Junior Explorer having near-term access to revenue stream
Keep up the good work GWMO and Muletown teams
Looking forward to this seasons OMCO drilling results ... would be nice to have 2 gamechangers in play
ATB APR
@jon Shhh Don't tell GTMufo he will be disappointed that Jaw Crusher can handle 12x initial plant loads so is unlikely to break any time soon!
.... for quick delivery so to minimise plant downtime.
What you are not asking about are the elephant-in-the-room questions such as ....
Will they get an operating licence?
Muletown is previously used site for exactly this purpose and Nevada is a very friendly mining jurisdiction so licencing looks to be about due process especially as they have been given special dispensation already on construction.
Can they operate JV profitably?
Again Muletown have run a processing operation from this site previously so should know what they are doing and BH has stated that no such facility exists in area for 3rd party processing so I would expect more 3rd parties looking to use this facility to process historic tailings and/or small scale ore toll processing as owners of local historic mining sites reassess the economics of their sites given this new facility coming online.
ATB APR
@GTMufo I don't think anyone on this BB has an issue with you (or anyone else) raising concerns, discussing issues or giving an opinion on what is going on or may happen as that is what these BBs are for. HOWEVER posters repeating wild pumps or unsubstantiated fears without any background research or informed opinion just winds everyone up as they have real money invested and naturally may get a bit "spiky".
Personally I was also invested in PREM but just got fed up with constant undelivered promises, random purchases of assets and regular share dilution to chase the next big thing. GWMO has not yet "popped" but seems to be doing all the right things a junior explorer should be doing particularly using shareholder funds to generate a repeatable revenue stream using the JV processing plant.
I've worked in project management building and delivering "real stuff in the real world" and yes things do not go to plan and kit does break which is why you have a "contingency" in both your budget and plan for "known unknowns" and leftfield "unknown unknowns" which in my experience tend to be rare and rarer still if you have a good team and know what you are doing.
GWMO is led by Brian Hall who is very experienced and the JV is with Muletown who have previously operated a gold/silver processing plant on this very site which is why the plant is refurbished and the site is being adapted rather than a new build and new equipment ...
Does the JV have risks?
Yes, but most likely well understood because all parties are familiar with site, licencing authority, processes, procedures and processing plant kit as it was previously used by them on this site.
Can stuff go wrong?
Absolutely and probably will; the question you are not asking is about their experience, knowledge of site and plant being brought back into use which to me demonstrates you don't understand what they have setup and the real risks which to my mind seem to be contained and well understood. The issue here is the likely SCALE of what may go wrong and whether is is SUBSTANTIVE for cost/timescales NOT whether something will go wrong or not!
The JV is currently building out the site to take the refurbished plant whilst in parallel progressing the operating licence for stage 1 gravity processing of ore/tailings which derisks timescales and JV responsibilities sets out who does what and GWMO has a £500k budget set aside for Stage 1 & 2 equipment refurbishment & installation whilst site build and provision of plant is Muletown's responsibility.
So will the crushing plant teeth break?
Frankly I could not care less as this is an inspection issue for the build stage and a maintenance issue for the run stage. If it is judged that new teeth are needed it comes out of initial CAPEX at build/refurbishment stage or OPEX if it is during run. IF plant manager thinks teeth are critical or worn then I'd expect him to hold spares or have a source of replacement parts lined up for quick del
@Mafioso LOL, plenty of transparency here and RNSs are very clear so I'd suggest rather than asking everyone else here to answer your questions that you DYOR and ask the CEO yourself.
AA history concerning these licences is also very clear so I suggest you check the Copper price charts and ask Google for top 20 targets et al
ATB APR
Price spiked down 0.25p yesterday in what looks like a clean double-bottom at 3.0011p and closed at 3.25p creating a pin-head candle which is usually a good indication of a turn in this case up.
Additionally the inverse Head and shoulders pattern from May-22 JV announcement I previously mentioned has a neckline at 4.6p which indicates a 50% price recovery from here and possible upside target at 6p to close the pattern over the coming weeks,
ATB APR
@GTMufo Given your woeful lack of research, hopefully my last post lays out for you ...
1) timeline for JV licencing & production as site build well underway
2) GWMO cash available to fund JV build stages
3) JV who does what
4) Stated progress onsite
ATB APR
@GTMufo Breaking news update ... just in case you missed it
CASH = £130k stated in 31-Dec-22 accounts PLUS £800k in 17-Jan-23 capital raise +£83k cash tax credit = £1,0130k end Feb-23
JV Costs = RNS confirmed budgeted £500k for ALL 3 stages of the JV build ... Stage 1 build started early Feb-23
Available cash = £1,013k (Feb-23) - cash raise expenses (£80k?) - Mgt OPEX - JV Stage 1 build -2023 OMCO drilling ... await confirmation in Jul-23 after half year end Jun-23 update
JV Licencing & production start:
RNS 6-JUn states "The JV has been formally granted a 'Special Use Permit' for establishment of the mill by the County Commissioners of Mineral County, Nevada. A permit to produce gold and silver from the mill has been filed with NDEP (Nevada Department for Environmental Protection) and is expected to have completed all the approval stages by August this year. Once approval for the gravity plant has been secured, production operations will be permitted and the JV will then lodge a further application with NDEP for approval of the phase 2 contained chemical leaching plant, designed to enhance gold and silver recovery."
So....
> Stage 1 (gravity) licencing expected = end Aug-23
> JV plant production = by end 2023
> Stage 2 (leaching) licencing application = after receipt Stage 1 licence
I am expecting GWMOs Stage 1 build/commissioning costs to be circa £250k as site, plant and foundations covered by JV partner Muletown. Stage 2 JV build will be for leaching plant upgrade at later date subject to separate licencing application
ATB APR
----------
References:
RNS Sept-22 states "A capital expenditure budget of up to $600k will be phased over the three stages of construction and implemented following receipt of permits for each of the stages." ... Note $600k = £500k budget
RNS 7-Jan-23 states "... pleased to announce the successful completion of an oversubscribed placing to raise gross proceeds (before expenses) of £800,000" ... I estimate expenses at max 10% of sum raised
RNS 7-Feb-23 states "Great Western has been granted a tax credit in the form of an £83,000 cash payment for geological work in carried out in the years 2020 and 2021." ... I missed this one !
RNS 6-Jun-23 states "Under the JV agreement, Muletown is providing a mill site on private land, a large inventory of plant and equipment and supervision of construction. Great Western is financing the construction and commissioning of the mill and has the funds available to meet this commitment."
@JC The ONLY reason you would contemplate a JV and give up some %share of Nyakafuru is in return for a large staged capital investment to progress it to mine ready or mine build. I understood that Nyakafuru Reefs @400k JORC is NOT in the current deal but could be added as part of any JV to bring this back into play especially due to its proximity to existing resources.
Better a %share of a producing mine with a much larger JORC than 100% of something smaller that you cannot afford to build !
ATB APR
@Cattleman I have been with ARC since Sturec days so I absolutely "get" the patience bit given we are now out of the AA DD phase and into waiting for the Conditions Precedent around the licences/cadestre to kick in before the JV can be concluded and drilling can commence.
RNS @20-Apr-23 "The Joint Venture Agreement, including related investments and cash payments, is subject to certain conditions precedent being satisfied, including normal regulatory approvals in Zambia. All other substantive commercial terms of the proposed Joint Venture remain unchanged from those previously announced on 12 May 2022."
There is an Agreement to form a JV, so once Conditions Precedent are concluded the JV can be signed/formed (Effective Date) precipitating:
> On Signature = $3.5m cash payment to ARC in exchange for 51% interest in JV holding Zambian mining licences subject to Phase 1 completion
> Phase 1 within 3.5 years = AA further $11.5m cash payments to ARC & $24m in exploration costs
> Phase 2 within 5.5 years = AA further $20m in exploration costs for a 60% interest in JV
> Phase 3 within 7.5 years = AA further $30m in exploration costs for a 70% interest in JV
So ARC get $15m cash over first 3.5 years and retains a 30% interest in licences with an additional $74m exploration costs funded by AA within the first 7.5 years ... something that ARC would not be able to have done on its own without very significant dilution.
Looking at the weekly close chart, ARC has been in a very clear 14-month consolidation from JV announcement May-22 with SP cycling in a tighter and tighter range from 3p to 5p (spiked to 6.3p) and tightening so that it is currently 3.3p to 4p in a horizontal 'neutral' pennant pattern reflecting shareholders waiting for JV Yes/No resolution which makes perfect sense given situation. Once JV signed I am expecting a quick rise above 5p and consolidation ranging 6/8p+ as long-term holders take profits and stickier hands pickup their shares giving ARC a solid £75/90m MCap for starters.
Fingers crossed AA want to get aggressive with their drilling campaign given the long delays and decide to deploy multiple rigs to conclude Phase 1 in the first 18-24m ... win-win for everyone!
ATB APR
@PC Its a "condition precedent" which is usually reserved for something outside of teh control of one or both parties to an agreement that needs to be concluded for the agreement to be validated ... in this case the mining licences which is understandable as without them AA will be giving money for nothing
Reminds me of a song by Dire Straits
ATB APR
Looks like we are dropping to prior low at 0.835p from Jan-23 capital raise announcement or circa 3% below current SP.
Given the good news since then I would expect strong support and a "Double-bottom" as strong support as more positive "concrete" construction, drilling and/or licencing news to feed through over the coming weeks
ATB APR
Looks like RCR announced a non-brokered retail investor A$1.1m cash raise at A$5.5c for this years drilling & Exploration programme so will be interesting to see if GUN participates to maintain its current very sizeable 16.4% holding. RCR quarterly financial report to end Jan-23 showing cash of A$1.12m so looks like RCR are doing their best to strengthen their balance sheet ahead of any stock market pullback and/or further credit contraction.
I still maintain a good RCR position across GUN and directly via ASX despite significant paper loss. Hope over reality? ... maybe but it is a choice
ATB APR
@JC Let's hope so
ATB APR
It does seem rather strange that the COO Riian Lombard has "stepped down" and yet is still seeking an operational role whilst the new Exec chair has not made public his findings or recommendations.
To me the issue that needs "fixing" is lack of good corporate administration and reporting such as:
> Lack of Prospectus as per LSE rules
> Poor or non-existent operational RNSs since Q1 2022
> No reporting on use of CLNs until after the fact whilst talking about no dilution approach and yet CLNs by their nature can be very dilutional
> Poor reporting to LSE of total shares in circulation for at least 6 months
> Poor and/or contradictory reporting on operational plan & progress versus RM verbal updates
About time we had an update, but suspect Prospectus will be the trigger for changes
ATB APR
@Chisler Whilst I admire your optimism GWMO need to be able to demonstrate that they can "walk" and get the tailings through the JV processing plant before we start pricing in them "running" which to my mind is locating and recovering virgin ore from OMCO vein which to my mind is the most advanced opportunity.
Looking forward in 2023 I can see:
1) Processing JV = licenced & operational processing MJ and OMCO tailings
2) New OMCO vein further drilled & delineated = 8g/t assayed in 2022 & historical grades circa 25-30g/t gold
Latest Presentation says:
2022: Indicated JORC-compliant resource of 31,000 tonnes at 1.6 g/t in OMCO Mine tailings
2022/23: Created 50-5 JV with local contractor/landowner to process gold & silver, now under construction
2023: Currently diamond-core drilling at the OMCO Mine
RNS Sept-22 OMCO drill results:
o 2.682 g/t Au average over an interval of 6.10 m, beginning at 38.10 m, including:
o 8.110 g/t Au over 1.52 m, from 39.62 m, and
o 1.747 g/t Au over 1.52 m, from 41.15 m
IMHO with just one of the above I can comfortably see £8-12m MCap and £20m+ with both. The JV allows GWMO to up their game and the new OMCO vein when established will be a serious game-changer as it is shallow and very high grade.
ATB APR
@jayster Tough call, but I'm looking out for anything ...
> Confirmation of JV Licencing approval
> Confirmation of JV plant built & Commissioned
> Confirmation of OMCO vein mapped and grading at historic 25g/t average gold
> Confirmation of copper JV partner with graduated farm-in including cash at each stage
Just my idle thoughts
ATB APR
@gtmufo Yes of course they will but very likely part of maintence cycle and rated for a large number of hours which JV operator can calculate … perhaps you knew this already but we’re too shy to shame us?
ATB APR
@GTMufo Good job they have the cash then ... as confirmed by 31-Dec-22 Year accounts (£130k cash) and Jan-23 £800k fund raise.
ATB APR
@JC Agreed
ATB APR