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@Sw Thanks for the reminder ... the presentation is from Apr-23 Metals & Mining conference and states signing of definitive funding agreement in Apr-23 which I understand we are still waiting to happen unless I've missed something. The schedule on p23 implies 8 months from funding signature to completion of plant upgrade and start of commissioning which I would expect to be a further 2-3 months so circa 10-12 months overall which seems reasonable. Reading through the timeline they are also expecting to have completed an updated MRE for both Kili and VM.
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It is interesting for me that GCAT (re)published its original JORC figures as an updated MRE (no changes!) after over a year of exploration at BOTH projects and the discovery of a high grade zone near Kilimapesa plus additional decent drill results at VR.
Why GCAT has not used this additional exploration information to upgrade its MRE confident levels and/or overall resources to help underpin its SP and/or ability to secure good or better funding terms seems to me a big missed opportunity.
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Gold and silver now looking very perky especially as DXY and inflation down implying Fed pause and possible retreat on interest rates and/or resumption of QE to reduce cost of $32T debt load.
My POG target is now intermediate $2,400 rising to $2,900 over next 3-12 months with gold/silver ratio compressing from 85:1 to 50:1 giving silver price intermediate $48 and $60 over same period.
This will be biblical for gold & silver stocks with initial focus on producers and then developers and explorers catching up later
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@go-ly-dow Whilst I accept all the positives you mentioned what the Prospectus will tell us is the DENOMINATOR ... without understanding" total shares in issue" we cannot for sure know what:
(1) the MCap is (SP x shares in circulation)
(2) what % dilution the recent £351k fundraise was at (£351k / £MCap)
(3) what the true cost of resolving the CLNs et al. (£XXX / £MCap)
The upshot of all of this is NOT the SP it is the MCap or what we think the £value of the organisation is. Once we know the MCap and the total shares in issue (denominator) then we can work out what the SP assuming we get a firm plan of what the CAPEX raised will be used for and when a known result will be achieved.
So just before the Dec-22/Jan-23 funding crisis the MCap was circa £16-18m which assumed that GCAT was a going concern, had CAPEX funding, had 1.3Moz reserves across 2 projects and had 6 months before 24koz/month production and SP = MCap / Shares in circulation.
Anything else is supposition and/or window-dressing at this point
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Quarterly updates have been typically 6-8 weeks after quester close
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@Legalwolf Yes me too as "New MRE" is ACTUALLY unchanged Kili and Nyakafuru JORC from at least a year ago with no mention of any new resources including new high grade despite 12-18 months of drilling.
So WHY state this and present it as new when it is not ... better to be silent than suggest you have an ulterior motive? To me this now begs the real question of why the revised MRE promised last Oct-22 has still not been issued? Stupid move
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@legalwolf My understanding is the additional $3m or $4m funding previously announced as secured was contingent on main funder being found. Yesterdays £330k capital raise was a surprise but given current SP then 0.3p is not unreasonable given price has ranged 0.375/0.25 especially as HNW funder won't actually get any shares until Prospectus is out so taking lots of risk in my view hence grant of some warrants ... that they were at 0.6p I think is very positive.
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So Capital raise at 0.03p raising £330k cash after £21k costs to be used to fund capital raise proper ... interesting that additional 50% warrants issued at 0.06p which is not unreasonable given risk HNW is taking when shares cannot actually be issued until prospectus is approved.
Agreed seems a bit unconventional, but if the HNW is okay with it and it gives GCAT necessary cash to sort this all out then I'm all for it!
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@GTMufo Sorry it was more to do with having no actual basis for an argument that got the reaction you got.
You also miss the point that most junior explorers and miners have over the last 2-3 years lost between 50-80% of their value since the August 2020 gold highs. The fact that gold has now returned to those prior levels but the whole mining and in particular junior sector has not says we are in a deep bear market, which history says is usually a very good time to be a buyer.
I don't like seeing my investment in GWMO hammered any more than the next person, but the fact that they are developing a revenue stream via the processing plant JV is very welcome news.
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Unfortunately the Junior miners, producers and explorers are universally hated by the market and being down 50-70% is not unusual even though Gold and silver are now consolidating at or near the highs of 3 years ago when this bear market in junior resource stocks started. GUNs stocks are almost all early stage investments some quoted and some not
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@GTMufo Good point but I see potentially good news as recent price action has now established a clear double-bottom at ).835p in both Jan-23 and Jun-23 which usually indicates a price reversal especially if pattern is over weeks or better still months as per GWMO chart.
We also have an inverse head and shoulder which also indicates a price reversal if GWMO can close above 0.1035p. If pattern closes then target indicated is 0.118p top of trading channel which makes sense ... or bottom of prior trading channel 0.118p to 0.155p established Jan-22 to Jan-23.
GWMO is currently trading in a clear 6-month consolidation/accumulation range Jan-23=0.118p to Jun-23=0.835p which in itself is fairly positive as PIs take positions ahead of each exploration season.
Charts don't guarantee anything, but GWMO has very clear, established, long term trading ranges so more likely to follow these price patterns than not.
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@F29^2 News is actually very encouraging given AAL/ARC have done what they can and reliant on Zambian Government to be able to complete Conditions Precedent ... once CPs completed then the contract signed way back in Apr-23 comes into force.
Shame about the steady decline in SP and my lack of liquidity to make the most of it !
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BH confirmed OMCO drilling complete on Zak Mir's podcast on 25-June https://twitter.com/Share_Talk/status/1673026087587135493?s=20 so would be good to get some results given prior announcement and last years very encouraging results which look like caught a vein "halo" rather than the vein itself given historical 25g/t gold grades.
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RNS 7-Feb-23 Operations Update stated
"PRIORITY EXPLORATION DRILLING
Follow-up shallow drilling at The Olympic Gold Project is a priority for Great Western. A track mounted RC (reverse circulation) drill rig has now been secured and is currently being mobilised to the Olympic Gold site for shallow drilling at the OMCO Mine prospect.
Drilling in 2022 intercepted the OMCO Mine vein for the first time and an extension to the OMCO Mine is now believed to have been established. This previously reported intercept contained 6.10 m at 2.682 g/t gold from 38.10 m, including 1.52 m at 8.110 g/t gold and 1.52 m at 1.74 g/t gold. The discovery can potentially be expanded by drilling angled holes from the same permitted pad position. Drill timing will depend on weather conditions at the site and crew availability. "
@Jon Phase 1 gravity separation is pure mechanical process and typically has 50-55% recovery rates. Tailings can then be set aside awaiting Stage 2 Heap Leach or CIL processing being setup so nothing is wasted and relatively cheap OPEX as tailings already crushed/ground ready for reprocessing.
I would expect combined Stage 1+2 processing to recover 80-90% contained gold & Silver depending on setup and process flow optimisation.
Using JV plant for reprocessing historic GWMO and 3rd party tailings is a stroke of genius given tehir location and processing versus new ore much cheaper as tailings already partially processed/crushed saving time and OPEX. It will be interesting to see what the JORC for MJ tailings is and whether there are more historic tailings site to be fund given GWMO has 60km^2 of gold/silver/copper claims where all 3 metals have historically been mined.
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Given todays interview of BH with Zak we probably have a few newsworthy events to look forward to:
1) Drilling and/or assay results from OMCO new vein extension ... drilling confirmed as complete
2) Start of drilling at MJ
3) Confirmation of JV "licence to process" ... expected Aug-23
4) Confirmation of JV plant build ... expected Aug-23
5) Confirmation of JV plant commissioning and/or first gold/silver pour ... expected before 2023 year-end
Confirmation of OMCO vein above current 8g/t and at anywhere near historical 25g/t grades will set this alight particularly as JV progresses as we can then process our own ore.
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@SuePud thanks for posting Zak's interview with BH ... he sounds almost excited which is saying something
Key Takeaways for me:
> Targeting plant completion Aug-23 "synchronised" with expected permit to operate
> Progress towards JV process plant completion "all good"
> BH has plant build photos but "a bit of a mess as it is a construction site and it is what it is"
> Jaw crusher can handle 60t/day vs initial plant capacity only 5t/day
> plant is relatively straightforward to scale up and site is large
> JV partner Muletown is a "pleasure to work with" and "just get things done"
> surrounding area is lots of historic mines and tailings that can be processed through JV site
> GWMO is very unusual as a Junior Explorer having near-term access to revenue stream
Keep up the good work GWMO and Muletown teams
Looking forward to this seasons OMCO drilling results ... would be nice to have 2 gamechangers in play
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@jon Shhh Don't tell GTMufo he will be disappointed that Jaw Crusher can handle 12x initial plant loads so is unlikely to break any time soon!
.... for quick delivery so to minimise plant downtime.
What you are not asking about are the elephant-in-the-room questions such as ....
Will they get an operating licence?
Muletown is previously used site for exactly this purpose and Nevada is a very friendly mining jurisdiction so licencing looks to be about due process especially as they have been given special dispensation already on construction.
Can they operate JV profitably?
Again Muletown have run a processing operation from this site previously so should know what they are doing and BH has stated that no such facility exists in area for 3rd party processing so I would expect more 3rd parties looking to use this facility to process historic tailings and/or small scale ore toll processing as owners of local historic mining sites reassess the economics of their sites given this new facility coming online.
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@GTMufo I don't think anyone on this BB has an issue with you (or anyone else) raising concerns, discussing issues or giving an opinion on what is going on or may happen as that is what these BBs are for. HOWEVER posters repeating wild pumps or unsubstantiated fears without any background research or informed opinion just winds everyone up as they have real money invested and naturally may get a bit "spiky".
Personally I was also invested in PREM but just got fed up with constant undelivered promises, random purchases of assets and regular share dilution to chase the next big thing. GWMO has not yet "popped" but seems to be doing all the right things a junior explorer should be doing particularly using shareholder funds to generate a repeatable revenue stream using the JV processing plant.
I've worked in project management building and delivering "real stuff in the real world" and yes things do not go to plan and kit does break which is why you have a "contingency" in both your budget and plan for "known unknowns" and leftfield "unknown unknowns" which in my experience tend to be rare and rarer still if you have a good team and know what you are doing.
GWMO is led by Brian Hall who is very experienced and the JV is with Muletown who have previously operated a gold/silver processing plant on this very site which is why the plant is refurbished and the site is being adapted rather than a new build and new equipment ...
Does the JV have risks?
Yes, but most likely well understood because all parties are familiar with site, licencing authority, processes, procedures and processing plant kit as it was previously used by them on this site.
Can stuff go wrong?
Absolutely and probably will; the question you are not asking is about their experience, knowledge of site and plant being brought back into use which to me demonstrates you don't understand what they have setup and the real risks which to my mind seem to be contained and well understood. The issue here is the likely SCALE of what may go wrong and whether is is SUBSTANTIVE for cost/timescales NOT whether something will go wrong or not!
The JV is currently building out the site to take the refurbished plant whilst in parallel progressing the operating licence for stage 1 gravity processing of ore/tailings which derisks timescales and JV responsibilities sets out who does what and GWMO has a £500k budget set aside for Stage 1 & 2 equipment refurbishment & installation whilst site build and provision of plant is Muletown's responsibility.
So will the crushing plant teeth break?
Frankly I could not care less as this is an inspection issue for the build stage and a maintenance issue for the run stage. If it is judged that new teeth are needed it comes out of initial CAPEX at build/refurbishment stage or OPEX if it is during run. IF plant manager thinks teeth are critical or worn then I'd expect him to hold spares or have a source of replacement parts lined up for quick del
@Mafioso LOL, plenty of transparency here and RNSs are very clear so I'd suggest rather than asking everyone else here to answer your questions that you DYOR and ask the CEO yourself.
AA history concerning these licences is also very clear so I suggest you check the Copper price charts and ask Google for top 20 targets et al
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