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@jaac Good spot and excellent news
ATB APR
@Bebeto Thanks very useful but typical company structuring of holding companies (name gives it away) and their operating subsidiaries particularly when they hold have multi-jurisdictional operations with subsidiaries operating in different country typically with different legal and tax frameworks.
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@1digger most of the prior free cashflow discussions on this BB were focused on the previously held Kalaba existing small scale plant & mining area that has now been carved out of the current licences and not the Cheyeza area that AA now seems to be targeting.
There is nothing to say that AA will not go for early cashflow from a smaller scale project, but given that there is relatively little drilling done at scale and depth this seems unlikely as they would want to avoid placing a camp, process plant and/or tailings and waste over an area that they may later find holds substantial resources.
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@Travelcard Ask yourself the very simple question ,,, would ARC have been able to fund $74m of exploration costs to retain a 100% ownership of the asset, complete necessary DFS et al and then be able to build a mine?
Even if possible the dilution would have been eye-watering! Instead ARC have negotiated a deal where they get paid $14.5m over 3 years and retain their 66% share of 30% of the asset via Unico and take no risk and pay no costs until AA have finished. The fact that as an eventual 30% owner Unico retains 2 directors out of 5 is a good thing.
Nobody can disagree that Greatland's JV was outstanding for GGPs shareholders and yet I do not believe it was as generous as ARC's current JV with AA.
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@Bebeto Yes we already know that hence the Royalty based primary $7.5m funding discussions (DD underway hence recent Stage 1 Mine Plan), the farming out of the TZ Nyakafuru project to a JV, putting Kili underground on C&M, high-grading the recent found Kili shallow, high-grade zone and why the SP has been hit so hard.
For balance the RNs then goes on to say "The Company has since raised further funds and taken on further consultants to assist the Company to meet its reporting obligations going forward."
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LOL I don't think TW does accounts as a historic loss actually has value in current and future years as that loss gets carried forward and set against any trading profits thus reducing in-year tax liabilities until such time as the loss gets "used up" or can be carried forward no more.
Anyone would think that he was trying to imply that these historic losses have to be paid off in some way or make a current operation somehow insolvent when in fact they actually do the opposite as companies often buy loss making enterprises to offset profits elsewhere!
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@peggy LOL relentlessly optimistic as normal I see
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@Caddy Market probably wants to know about ...
> confirmed $cash payment from AA
> what the AA exploration programme looks like & timescales
> when and how many AA drills are arriving and where deploying first
> What is ARC going to do next with its $cash?
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@Jedster Sadly CCZ seems to follow a repeating pattern of ramp, raise, do some work, find very little, buy something else, wash and repeat ... having been on board and watching this pattern repeat 3 or 4 times since it launched on AIM with much promise.
Cangai has been owned by CCZ throughout this period and despite its JORC and clear promise nothing has been done to advance it and little or no talk of a JV until now ... why is that?
The Mt ISA area licences have been the focus of lots of exploration mainly at the Big One which came up with good grades but little volume so only suitable for mining if something else of size could be found elsewhere so onto the next big thing at Arya and virtual silence before we pivot again, repeat with possible JV elsewhere and now a strategic review and possible asset sale.
I don't normally comment on BBs that I am not invested in but I kick myself hard for staying invested as long as I did. I really do wish LTH luck with this one and hope it comes good, but I will be staying out unless something substantive changes.
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@Bebeto I think you are deliberately choosing not to understand that the Stage 1 Mine Plan analysis is a conservative estimate of what the funding when deployed will achieve so that the funders have some comfort that the plant will AT LEAST produce the amount of gold and revenue indicated and this is used to underpin their payment to GCAT under the Royalty deal.
Anyone paying attention knows that:
> plan assumes $1,700 POG when comfortably above recent $1,820 low and now pushing ATH circa $2,000
> Plant 1&2 Mill/IL @75% recovery - GCAT themselves have delivered 92% before upgrades
> Plant 3&4 Heap Leach @50% recovery - Pilot produced 53% in less than 3 weeks, cook cycle likely 2-3 months when plant 4 gets going as per my posted calcs and RM Stockbox interview. I expect minimum 60% HL recovery
Run the calculations for yourself and with the same throughput quoted you will get over 2koz/month recovered once the plant has been tweaked and %recoveries increased
ATB APR
Yep spot on JC you beat me to it!
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My take on Interview Https://youtu.be/1PHnZQ-s2Pc?si=sj3yH9OTHrZKBei-
CGAT focused on:
> Anchor Funding = Royalty non-dilutative deal $7.5m from Feb/Mar-23 term sheet signed
> Additional funding = relies on Anchor funding being in place
> Kili mine expansion with OCIM was $15.5m now costed at $10.5m and likely lower so additional funding "gap" narrowing
> Q3 Operational update by end Oct-23
> Funding Timeline ... Mine plan done & feeds into updated financial model for securing Royalty funding & associated Legal work with any conditions precedent to close deal in Q1 2024
> Heap Leach Pilot plants 1, 2 & 3 (22.5kt capacity) still in operation
> Heap Leach Pad 4 (upto 120kt) commercial HL still in construction ... possible camera install? and other pads to follow?
> Annual Report delay & suspension ... how & why? Purely admin delay on accounts as only 3 directors focused on mine running, FCA prospectus & funding WIP, Nyakafuru JV with no CFO. Adamant not a governance issue & FCA advised suspension in advance which RM said was very unusual!
> Prior suspension 3 days ... RM basically trashed previous FCO and "Paul" did rescue job with 18m of history to resolve
> Why RM £40k loan? Could not issue prospectus to raise funds as had unaudited financials as was an RTO, but could not proceed despite £20m MCap so took $1.5m short-term Mill End facility in order to complete audit and close OCIM funding. Kilimapesa operation has now repaid Mill End facility & £40k has contributed to paying these funding costs
> Mill End shares gone? Confirmed have sold down shares
> Tanzanian mining licence and progress - application licence is in and JV discussions progressing but depends on licence
> Vim Rutha & world class? Systematic exploration needed in Kenyan greenstone belt as extension of TZ deposits. No exploration work since Aug/Sept-22
> Drilling rigs at Kilimapesa hill first and VM after as 3-5 years worth of work
> When 24koz target? Funding dependent to expand Kili plat & expect 6m build ... funding Q1 2024 then 6m build
> Role of Simon Renick? Corporate Governance, mining plan & prospectus focused then strategy focused
> Mill End settlement - shares and cash payment due to close once prospectus issued
> New CFO & NEDs due? Looking at candidates and likely resolved in parallel to funding as everything scales up
Hopefully captured main points
> Heap Leach recovery rates? Cook cycle & time curve dependent but expecting 45-50 day cycle. Current pilot plants limited space to operate
> Funding dependent on Phase 1 Mine Plan only - MRE update part of phase 2 report increase I&M confidence & LoM
> Target 16koz gap to 24koz - Mine Plan states 75% recovery but 90%+ expected which will lift to 24koz with new plant crusher, CIL & HL capacity upgrades
> 650 employees? operation went onto care & maintenance, closed underground and scale back employment
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RNS at 10:41 .... Conditions precedent satisfied, Drilling underway. Minster announcement and 1st $3.5m cash payment to ARC yet to be announced
RNS May-22 ... Initial terms below:
The key commercial terms of the Joint Venture that have been agreed in principle in the Agreement are as follows:
- Upon signing of the Joint Venture Documents ("Effective Date"), a Joint Venture vehicle will be formed with initial ownership interests by Anglo American and Arc of 70% and 30%, respectively ("Initial Ownership Interests");:
§ USD 3,500,000 upon signing of the Joint Venture Documents ("Effective Date");
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Agreement with Anglo American
Arc Minerals is pleased to announce that the substantive regulatory conditions precedent with regards to its Joint Venture Agreement with a subsidiary of Anglo American plc ("Anglo American") as previously announced (the "JVA") have been satisfied.
Arc further announces that the parties have completed the subscription of shares in the joint venture company resulting in a 70% interest having been acquired by Anglo American and a 30% interest having been acquired by Unico Minerals Ltd, a 67% subsidiary of Arc Minerals Ltd.
In addition, Arc is pleased to confirm that drilling at one of the key joint venture licences has commenced.
Nick von Schirnding, Executive Chairman of Arc said "This marks a major turning point for Arc and our shareholders. I am delighted that we have now satisfied the substantive regulatory conditions precedent to completing the JVA and that the joint venture drilling campaign led by our partners, Anglo American, has commenced.
We recognise that President Hakainde Hichilema's government has prioritised additional foreign and local investment into the mining sector and it is with a sense of excitement that we can start the next phase of the exploration program. I would like to extend my appreciation and thanks to the administration and various government agencies of the Republic of Zambia who have been working tirelessly to ensure the required regulatory approvals were obtained."
Statement by the Minister of Mines and Minerals Development, Hon. Paul Kabuswe ... see RNS
@JC Agreed ... I can see lots of upside but still lots of risks to be addressed and worked through not least of which is rebuilding some investor trust!
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For me the next most important Study output is the MRE as this hasn't materially changed despite considerable exploration and drills results especially Vim Rutha and Kili high grade zone so some proper figures would be very useful
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Interesting RNS given I was not aware that a phased study was being undertaken although given the financing I 100% understand why it is needed BUT should have been in place already!
What we know from the study:
-- Independent Technical report providing 36 month mine plan for Kilimapesa Hill deposit;
-- 49,155oz forecast production; - average 16,385/annum not 24k
-- AISC US $1,055 per oz; - average FCF $645/oz or $895/oz at $1,950 POG so 39% more
-- Gross Revenue + US $83.5m; - average $27.83m/annum or £23m/annum
-- Total Free Cash + US $31.7m; - - average $10.57m/annum or £8.73m/annum
-- Gold Price US $1.700 per oz - currently POG is $1,950+
> Capital required =$10.5m or £8.76m ... will now be costed and expect lower costs
> Build time = 6 months from funding drawdown
> Milling/CIL plant recovery = 75% ... historically this has been nearer 90% with Plants 1&2
> Heap Leach plant recovery = 50% ... pilot plant achieved 53% but not aware of more up-to-date figures
> Mine Plan produces 2,427,279t of ore at average grade of 1.06g/t or 67.4kt/month
> Milling/CIL plant production = 529,756t at an average grade of 1.8g/t processed for 23,002oz recovered
> Heap Leach plant production = 1,897,524t at an average grade of 0.86g/t processed for 26,153oz recovered
Assumed:
Heap Leach capacity = 142.5kt capacity (pilot 22.5kt & main 120kt)
What else does this tell us from Stage 1 study?
> Average production is average 16,385/annum not 24k, but lots of room to improve especially on Mill/CIL plant
> Mine plan implies 67.4kt/month ore production
> Mill/CIL plant needs to process = 529,756t/36m or 14.7kt/month throughput
> Heap Leach needs to process = 1,897,524t/36m or 52.7kt/month throughput
> Heap Leach cycle time = 142.5kt/52.7kt = 2.7 month cooking to get to 50% recovery vs 53% after 3-4 weeks on pilot
The figures look conservative but we need to remember ...
1) we need to get financing first before we draw it down
2) build & upgrading is 6 months ... then will need ramp-up & commissioning
3) Heap Leach is a bulk operation with assumed low average grade, long cook times and modest recovery
ATB APR
Heads up ... StockBox presents Caracal Gold Telegram Q&A
Caracal Gold will be conducting a live Q&A on Telegram, from 5.00pm UK on Thursday 26th October 2023 featuring Robbie McCrae CEO
@Finch You're not kidding !
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I get why last year the accounts were late given historic issues that need to be resolved BUT this year those issues have been dealt with and anything remaining should just relate to this years transactions and auditing issues only.
I must admit this is the first time I have seen a suspension notified in advance and not just there and then as a suspension is to stop dis-regulated trading whereas here we are open to trade but know the accounts will be late but do not know why ... bonkers!
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@GTMufo Copper at 0.45% IS commercial what currently is not commercial is the amount of ore which is why GWMO wanted to drill between the 2 previously drilled areas and join them up which should 2x to 4x the current JORC as a starting point.
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