Member Info for aprogerson

@Damocles Succinctly put and nothing more to add ... suggest "other" posters read the RNS and stop jumping to wild conclusions

ATB APR

Good to see $1.55m or £1.3m of combined short term funding announced that takes away the "Going Concern" issue by "bridging" the finances until main funding lands and can thus be paid back using the new funding as stage 2 work is a sub-set of what the new funding is for but brings it forward.

IMHO those focusing on the "cost" of the new short-term $1.4m funding need to balance this against the "value" to shareholders of taking away the going concern issue & value created by starting Stage 2 rather than waiting X months for Royalty funding to arrive ... for example:

Nov-23 = cash $1.4m

Jun-24 = payback $1.75m so cost of loan = $350k or £292k for 7.5 months or a 40% annualised rate

So GCAT have 7.5 months to complete Royalty funding so $1.4m loan costs capped at $1.75m or they "Step up" to $2,100,000 if settled on or before 31 December 2024; this would be a cost of $700k over 13.5m or a 44% annualised rate

ATB APR

@SeisNav Been running and updating this chart for 2 years and its uncanny how the patterns and price points repeat which is 100% clear in hindsight ... using them to trade in the present and/or to make decisions to buy or sell is a whole different ball game

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Updated chart https://ibb.co/c1vb9Kr

As pointed out 7-Nov-23 I suggested likely outcome that we strongly break top of prior accumulation wedge around 3.7p and we spiked to 4.25p. Price has now pulled back to 3.7p confirming that top of prior wedge is now support ... very clean chart action!

I still maintain my near term measured target of 6.3p as shown by the green inverse Head and Shoulders pattern

ATB APR

Posted by ARC yesterday

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRRRwsCqCjw

Fan-blo/ody-tastic news !

ATB APR

For those that believe in TA and charting voodoo:

We have broken above previously ascending wedge support line @3.5p that should now serve as support and currently sat at prior neckline resistance @3.8p. We are now back in a 12-month contracting wedge accumulation zone with current support at 3.5p and resistance @4.4p ... if we break out of this structure I have a short term measured target @6.3p

Hopefully chart is visible https://ibb.co/N625Z2r

ATB APR

@TommyWin GCAT have already been achieving 92% with Plant 1 and 2 BEFORE upgrades so this for me is nailed on. What the plant upgrades do is increase crushing capacity to help keep Heap Leach fed, mill & CIL capacity to increase plant 1 & 2 throughput both of which enable 24koz/annum throughput

Efficiency isn't the issue but throughput capacity is

ATB APR

@Bristol_jules Anything you can share including photos et al greatly appreciated

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@Bebeto thankyou for your response

Agreed that these things would not be a "good look" but my concern is given that this is a risk what mitigating activities GCAT are taking to reduce the chance of this happening or (hopefully) avoiding it. I don't know the answer but a risk is NOT an outcome but a possibility and actions can be taken to reduce the impact if that risk materialises.

I also agree that the first breach should have been anticipated but wasn't and the action taken was to employ a new Chairman with governance as his main brief. The latest breach by failure to complete an audit in a timely fashion so that GCATs annual accounts could be signed off was 99.9% foreseeable with no CFO and thus avoidable which is 100% on GCAT.

ATB APR

@Travelcard Really??? Do you understand what scenarios mean or do you just pick one to suit your negative outlook particularly as you have offered no view on why you think this so we can have some discussion about it

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@Greengrass and Lowpay Agreed on both points. The best thing BH could do is issue a Mill progress update with some photographs so PIs at least feel involved and valued ... lack of information just gives space to those that just play on fear

ATB APR

@Bebeto You really should read all of my response where I clearly say what I think and why rather than attribute things to me that I did not say such as "You seem to think non compliance isn't the Company's fault."

I cited your prior comment and agreed with you by clearly stated in my post "I do agree that "The company would need to take decisive actions to address its ongoing compliance issues, rectify the reasons for the delayed financial reports, and demonstrate a clear commitment to timely and accurate financial reporting.". "

For clarity you initially did NOT say that you had asked the FCA you just asserted a position WITHOUT saying this hence my deliberately open question about how you had arrived at this view.

ATB APR

@Bebeto You are posting on a public BB making an assertion about how the FCA works and how it may view GCATs actions/inactions ... I was asking what the basis for your assertions were, so I see no reason why I should have to guess these, ask the FCA what I think you meant in order to understand if I agree with you or not.

ATB APR

@Bebeto I am interested in your assertions around the FCAs future treatment of GCAT in light of the 2 suspensions for failure to post timely financial reports.

On what basis do you believe that "Such a situation would significantly impact the FCA's assessment of the company's ability to adhere to regulatory requirements and maintain transparency." and "The FCA would likely have even greater concerns about the company's compliance record and its ability to meet its disclosure obligations. Approving a new prospectus for share issuance under these circumstances would be highly challenging." ?

I do agree that "The company would need to take decisive actions to address its ongoing compliance issues, rectify the reasons for the delayed financial reports, and demonstrate a clear commitment to timely and accurate financial reporting.". However, I note that RM has already said in the recent StockBox interview that they do not have a CFO and separately that that they have hired external consultants to address these shortcomings.

I think everyone on this BB can agree that the current situation following withdrawal of OCIM funding last January has been a s***show, but in hindsight I am not sure how RM could have anticipated the event or done much more to ensure that GCAT remains a "going concern" until further funding via Royalty stream agreement and/or TZ JV has been secured.

IMHO RM has and is doing what he can in clearly challenging circumstances ...

> Appointment of chairman to deal with regulatory and governance issues

> Progressing issue of Prospectus with FCA

> paying down bulk of Mill End facility

> Appointment of external consultants to complete overdue audit

> completion of Stage 1 Mine Plan to underpin primary funding for Kilimapesa mine

> progression of DD for primary non-dilutionary funding via Royalty stream

> progression of DD for JV on TZ Nyakafuru project ... expect it will be an earn-in model to DFS or even mine build?

> putting Kilimapesa underground mine on C&M and reducing running costs

> Running just Plant 1& 3 plus mining shallow high grade ore from new Kili vein to keep costs low

I guess we will find out more when the suspension is lifted

ATB APR

@Folio Heap Leach pads 1-3 are 7.5kt each for a total 22.5kt and HL pad #4 is the first Commercial pad which was planned to be 120kt, but scaling it from pad 1-3 plans & photos I suspect that it is actually 60kt but has not yet been commissioned.

ATB APR

@jaac Good spot and excellent news

ATB APR

@Bebeto Thanks very useful but typical company structuring of holding companies (name gives it away) and their operating subsidiaries particularly when they hold have multi-jurisdictional operations with subsidiaries operating in different country typically with different legal and tax frameworks.

ATB APR

@1digger most of the prior free cashflow discussions on this BB were focused on the previously held Kalaba existing small scale plant & mining area that has now been carved out of the current licences and not the Cheyeza area that AA now seems to be targeting.

There is nothing to say that AA will not go for early cashflow from a smaller scale project, but given that there is relatively little drilling done at scale and depth this seems unlikely as they would want to avoid placing a camp, process plant and/or tailings and waste over an area that they may later find holds substantial resources.

ATB APR

@Travelcard Ask yourself the very simple question ,,, would ARC have been able to fund $74m of exploration costs to retain a 100% ownership of the asset, complete necessary DFS et al and then be able to build a mine?

Even if possible the dilution would have been eye-watering! Instead ARC have negotiated a deal where they get paid $14.5m over 3 years and retain their 66% share of 30% of the asset via Unico and take no risk and pay no costs until AA have finished. The fact that as an eventual 30% owner Unico retains 2 directors out of 5 is a good thing.

Nobody can disagree that Greatland's JV was outstanding for GGPs shareholders and yet I do not believe it was as generous as ARC's current JV with AA.

ATB APR