Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
@Kewben I must admit going back through the SP Angel report and the GWMO website was instructive around the Cu prospects particularly the relative proximity of a large "exploration" target to the current JORC resource. This correlates to the previously reported "under-drilled" area between M2 and M4 that I have often referred to that IMHO opens up the site to a significant resource upgrade as as such maybe the key to attracting a sensible JV partner to fund the step-out and infill drilling required to further boost resource size and confidence. Checking with local Cu deposits and historic mine workings the grade of circa 0.4 to 0.5% copper is typical.
That said this can't/won't happen without $3m+ drill programme that GWMO cannot currently afford without diluting current PIs into oblivion. It will be very interesting to see what revenue stream can be generated via the process Plant JV from both tailings and/or OMCO mine newly intercepted vein using a 3rd party contractor to do digging and/or transportation.
ATB APR
@BJ Whilst I accept your logic it is difficult to dispute that SP will be mainly driven by PIs buying/selling float so an "emotional" response to funding news is likely followed by a period of consolidation as the news impact sinks in.
IMHO post-funding I am expecting the MCap to revert to Dec-22 circa £15m>£18m range or 2.5x current £6.6m MCap given this will (almost) identical company situation with 24koz/annum production circa 6 months off except for:
> Add news on high-grade zone
> Resolution of Governance issues such as (1) missing Prospectus & (2) Governance audit
I am expecting some dilution as I expect them to ask GCAT to put their hand in tehir pocket but don't expect a new funder to subsidise Mill End reparations either ... clearly the outcome may be very different if RM pulls off a coup.
Debt funding is also not so simple even if RM avoids dilution any new funder is very likely to insist on warrants to protect against further downside risk which in essence is future dilution albeit attached to a future capital injection ... as always the key to warrants is the strike price which will need to be a premium to reflect confidence rather than a 10%+ discount which seems to be the norm.
Clearly the current SP of 0.35p reflects the market view that some dilution is inevitable given the Governance failures PLUS (in my view) the likelihood that any deal will include significant Management options to replace those shares lost to the Mill End deal.
For clarity I remain a shareholder that is happy with assets & future prospects but VERY unhappy with the current situation, delays to 24koz production & SP all of which should not have happened especially the covert use of CLNs whilst funding was not nailed on.
ATB APR
Okay I give up ... debating an idiot is pointless
@GTMufo Breaking news ... they got the £800k/money in 17-Jan-23 capital raise of which they have budgeted £500k for all 3 stages of the JV build so have AT LEAST £300k plus the £130k stated in 31-Dec-22 accounts
This is getting tiresome now
ATB APR
@GTMufo LOL, that was to produce a dore bar which they did by the December target, so the example you used to prove they did not deliver actually proved the exact opposite !
Please, please please do not leave this BB as I cannot believe just how much you are making me laugh. Please do share more of your in-depth, well researched thoughts
ATB APR
@GTMufo 3 years late for what?
This is the first "project" undertaken by GWMO and we are now mobilised and constructing after first announcing an MOU via RNS in July-2022 with an update in Oct-22 & Jan-23 followed by fundraising to pay for build in Jan-23 approximately 5 months ago so how can we be 3 years late?
You are just making stuff up now and posting it in the hope that no one will notice
ATB APR
... and for those that like TA we have an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart with recent turn bang on where expected and closing at "neck line" of 4.5p. This pattern over long period and high time period is usually a reliable indicator of a strong bottoming pattern and generates upside target around 6p in the near term ie a few weeks rather than several months
Voodoo science lecture over, but ARCM has traded in very clear pattern for the last 6-9 months with 3-4 touches on upper and lower pennant chart bounds which is a good indicator that pennant will resolve to the upside on anticipated market news!
ATB APR
@SuePud Thanks for posting link.
Notable for me was progress on JV and mill progress with revenues this year ... subject to usual commissioning disruptions = bless your quiet/understated confidence !
Also of note was confirmation that drilling at MJ re-commences this week.
ATB APR
Nice to see SP bounce off 3.275p uptrend support from last Oct/Nov-22 where price has been consolidating in a nice clear banner pattern whilst we await substantive news (ie deal finalised and conditions precedent satisfactorily closed) with current top of pennant around 4.5p
Nice buy in point if you have spare cash and slight bounce today confirming change of direction.
ATB APR
@CM I've always thought that BH runs a very tight ship cost wise and brings in subcon resource and 3rd parties when needed which is what I like to see with a micro-cap developer such as GWMO.
Sadly without a revenue stream then ANY cost is never welcome from PIs but the fact is they need to sell shares to raise capital ... unless of course you have circa £800k+ cash (As of Feb-23 cash raise) and a revenue stream coming online within the next 6 months or so.
What many seem to be missing is that GWMO is liable in JV for CAPEX to build and commission JV plant on Muletown property using Muletown's pre-existing plant. RNS Set-22 states "A capital expenditure budget of up to $600,000 will be phased over the three stages of construction and implemented following receipt of permits for each of the stages."
GWMO has at least £800k cash and CAPEX budget for all 3 stages is £500k with Stage 1 therefore being less than £500k so GWMO has as an absolute minimum £300k and probably nearer £500k available to deploy AFTER Stage 1 build is complete. BH seems to have taken a very prudent approach to JV CAPEX in order to ensure that no further capital raise is needed before JV revenue stream comes online.
ATB APR
Hi Setanta, Hrmmm optimistic ... yes probably for the first time in a long time as I can actually see they have a funded plan which will actually both generate revenue AND allow them to process their own tailings rather than trying to fund it themselves without having the knowhow.
Sadly I am also in the "bag holder" category being underwater but as it is held in my SIPP I am okay to wait. I also like GWMO having over 60km^2 of claims over historically mined areas for gold, silver and copper.
As I often say understand what you are getting into with a junior/micro cap exploration stock especially one that needs to raise cash by selling shares which is most of them ! When GWMO becomes a micro-producer in the next 6 months or so then GWMO fortunes will also dramatically change for the better.
ATB APR
Revenues & timings: (updated content from my 19-May-23 post)
1) £130k cash at end Dec-22 plus £800k capital raise in Jan-23 =£930k
2) Once processing plant build is complete and licenced to operate they will be generating revenue from ...
> own OMCO & MJ tailings = £1.63m in 2023 (see breakdown below)
> 3rd party miners supplying ore to JV plant for toll-processing
> when Stage 2 Heap Leach plant is built can reprocess 31kt OMCO ore for circa 50% recovery of Stage 1 processed ore
From May-22 RNS "an inferred mineral resource of approximately 31,000 tonnes grading 1.6 g/t au and 3.0 g/t ag for 1,600 troy ounces of au metal and 3,000 ounces of ag metal" so when gravity processed (stage 1 plant under construction) then:
> gravity gold recovery = 1,600oz JORC *50% = 800oz @$2k/oz = $1.6m revenue
> gravity silver recovery = 3,000oz JORC *50% = 1,500oz @$22/oz = $33k revenue
> sum revenue = $1.63m or £1.36m in 2023 assuming not-too-demanding 50% recoveries
> Stage 1 plant targeting 15.8kt/year throughput so 31kt OMCO JORC "ore" will take 2 years to process unless JV opts to upgrade to higher throughput at minimal CAPEX and no additional OPEX as per 6-Jun-23 RNS
IMHO GWMO is a MCap £4.23m with cash and cashflows as follows:
Cash = £930k max (£130k Dec-22 plus £800k Jan-23 minus 6-months run costs over winter)
OMCO tailings Stage 1 processing = £1.36m revenue ... initial plant in 2023
OMCO tailings Stage 2 processing = £680k revenue ... requires upgraded plant so more likely 2024 (400oz gold & 750oz silver or £1.36m *50% HL recovery)
Clearly future cash generated = gold/silver sales revenues - plant run costs but profit on £2.04m revenues from OMCO tailings alone is likely to generate £1m+ profit and AFTER paying for GWMO 50% share of plant upgrade to Stage 2 Heap Leach & 10% refining from concentrate costs
My best guess is JV will go for a multi-pad Heap Leach that they can start small and scale up as they progress reducing risk and time to get to Stage 2 so that they can reprocess OMCO tailings and generate more cash ASAP
Looking good GWMO
ATB APR
Highlights
· Concrete work ongoing. Process equipment at location
· Special Use Permit now granted with NDEP approval expected August 2023
· Guidance on plant capacity and anticipated recoveries
· Independent calculations of material available for processing
· First revenues expected this year
Fantastic RNS outlining in great detail:
> JV = 50/50% with Muletown supplying site & plant & GWMO financing build & Commissioning from cash
> plant processing metrics = 5t/hour, 70+ hour week, 48 week year =16.8kt/year
>> stage 1 recovery = 50% Mill & gravity separation & feeds ...
>> Stage 2 recovery = 60% Heap leach (ie adds 30% metal recovery from input ore)
>> Overall Stage 2 recovery = 80% combined cycle
> summarised low/high case for available materials to be processed from existing ABOVE ground sources
>> Minimum JORC = 1,600oz Gold & 3,000oz Silver @OMCO mine
>> low case contained overall metal = 1,980oz Gold & 9,250oz Silver across MJ & OMCO
>> high case contained overall metal = 2,810oz Gold & 40,300oz Silver across MJ & OMCO
> Refining costs expected to be 10% post recovery from concentrate
> JV mill costs = not stated but GWMO will "recover" 50% as it is a JV 50% partner
> GWMO has also stated that there maybe additional above ground materials across its 60km^2 of claims
In summary
GWMO ability to produce a viable revenue stream from existing above ground materials backed by JORC compliant estimates for 50% of materials now looks nailed on. Additionally Stage 1 gravity separation plant will recover 50% of available contained metals with balance able to be stored onsite for Stage 2 recovery via Heap Leach when Stage 2 plant has been built.
GWMO has importantly also stated that existing plant throughput can be increased above stated 5t/hour at modest CAPEX and no additional OPEX costs so 16.8kt/year rate is a minimum.
ATB APR
@GTMufo Really ??? You are quoting something from 2018 when they were going after Copper to something in 2023 when they are going after gold/silver as an example of their present competence and/or trustworthiness which then equates somehow to how risky GWMO is ... really ????
Please use a calculator as 2023-2018 is 5 years ago not 3 years ago as you keep repeating
Sorry you are a muppet who keeps inserting one or both feet into your own mouth and spouting drivel ... do yourself a favour and just stop confirming to everyone with almost every post that you are a muppet .. its not a good look
Sensible posters here keep posting real world facts and refer to RNSs which they take time to read and understand whilst leveraging real world experience and knowledge. I have not seen ANY evidence that you do this but instead keep posting inane comments based on mumbo jumbo, fear and assertions dressed up as fact.
Early stage, small exploration companies are a very risky business in the very risky mining sector which is currently out of favour as the metals they seek (gold/silver) has been in a 2-year bear market. Don't confuse macro with micro and if you don't like go join Reddit/Robinhood and invest in Bed Bath & Beyond or similar YOLO stocks chasing the next rainbow.
ATB APR
@GTMufo Again you now talk about more funds being needed but this time for "mining" ... the only "mining" GWMO have planned is to engage a 3rd party operator to drive up GWMO's new road to site and dig up the OMCO & MJ tailings, load them up and then drive them back to the processing plant for gravity separation which will have ~50% metals recovery .... then repeat until all available tailings delivered to plant and collect gold/silver dore bars out of other end.
Still not sure what real risk you are trying to point out other than you don't really understand what they are trying to do therefore it must be risky so that they must need more money. Conflating this with prior copper situation from 2018/19 only demonstrates your lack of understanding of the issues and/or inability to express them coherently.
ATB APR
@lowpay Secured would imply ordered and (at least) a deposit paid against it usually with balance on delivery as any plant will need to be manufactured unless it is second hand/refurbished which is my expectation
ATB APR
@GTMufo I've managed £1m to £100m+ plus projects from design to commissioning so I know a bit about this.GWMO have stated their budget for Stage 1 plant which is part of the 50/50 JV hence 50% max liability for each partner.
Basically will need to:
1) produce a business case & get it approved - RNS for JV
2) Design, plan with a budget and a contingency for unplanned events - RNS for JV
3) Raise funds = Jan-23 fund raise for Stage 1 process plant
4) Get any external planning and/or licencing approvals = WIP since Jan-23
5) Order long lead-time equipment and plant = unsure but assumed underway using approved JV funds
6) Build groundworks and any foundations = WIP see Mining_Great Twitter photos
7) Order balance of equipment and plant
8) Build and commission plant = RNS states first production H2 2023
9) Ramp up production
10) full production capacity
The main reason I am chilled about costs and plan is that the site was previously used as a metal processing plant so some if not all of the main in/on-ground infrastructure, loading areas, access roads, tailings storage et al is already built so only has to be adapted removing need for foundations and most groundworks which is where a lot of the cost and time in a construction project goes.
We also know that Stage 2 and 3 process plant upgrades will be funded from JV revenues processing both GWMO tailings and any future mined ore plus 3rd party toll milling/processing. I fully expect Stage 1 tailings will then be fed back into Stage 2 & 3 plant to extract 50-75% of the remaining metals in due course.
I also expect GWMO to possibly debt finance Stage 2/3 once plant has been proven and they know exactly how much metal is in the remaining Stage 1 tailings. OMCO Stage 1 tailings alone will have £1-2m retrievable metals alone and that is a known-known with MJ tailings being a known-unknown until it is "explored", assayed fully and a JORC produced.
ATB APR
@peggacilla Deal concludes when any "Conditions Precedent" have been fulfilled as per NvS IG interview I understood that one of those would be the mining cadastre but there may well be others
ATB APR
@GTMufo Yet more non-specific half-sentences stitched together is not a coherent explanation ... please explain why you think that GWMO ...
> Do not have enough money and need to raise more?
> Will face delays on JV mill plant construction when no timeline has been issued?
Random assertions repeated often do not a coherent argument make
ATB APR
@lowpay The "material" referred to is the tailings
ATB APR