Member Info for AP-Invest

It was as if that January rise never even happened…

Positive news on the director dealings front:
2022 to Date:
14/01/2022 - Non-executive Director (Andrew Ross) purchased 30,000 shares at 665p (£199,500)
14/01/2022 - Non-executive Chairman (David Lamb) purchased 45,000 shares at 686p (£308,700)
17/01/2022 - Chief Executive Officer (CEO) (Gavin Rochussen) purchased 20,000 shares at 699p (£139,976)
01/02/2022 - Non-executive Director (Win Robbins) purchased 10,000 shares at 636p (£63,673).

It’s always a positive to see non-executive board members purchasing shares in tandem with executive management team.

Title: How Vietnam’s millennials will shape the country’s consumer economy.

Article: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-vietnams-millennials-shape-countrys-consumer-economy-/?trackingId=z5TUjOgWIEGGjoWkIgFimw%3D%3D

My view is that overall this RNS is positive news given the pandemic and South Africa operations. A concern with regards to The temporary suspension of Lesedi operation…

The Group cash balance decreased 17% from $132.7M to $110.1M during the quarter. $14.6M of this relates to dividend payment, royalty taxes and other operational costs.

Interesting how they did not compare operations to Q2 2020. (Q2-2020 SDO was 18,363 PGM ounces) Q2-2021 was 16,605 PGM ounces. (Q2-2020 net profit was $20.3M) Q2-2022 was $15.5M.

I am still long but I don’t think the market reaction will take kindly to this, I may be wrong. Quality, value an liquidity metrics remain strong. Momentum has been poor, momentum follows Rhodium price usually: currently at 16,850oz up 19.08% on the month. Palladium is at 2,372oz up 29.97% on the month and platinum is trading around 1009 an oz, up 5.71% on the month. If the PGM basket price continues to increase and USD continues to be more favourable than ZAR then the value will continue to increase.

It’s good but we need Rhodium to soar as it accounts for 50% of our revenues, despite only accounting for 10% of produce. Hopefully all PGMs will follow in pursuit.

Share price is merely an entry price. Anyone getting in now is buying cheap shares in the bargain bucket range. MCAP same as cash balance. Project 50 on route this will turnaround.

It would be nice if ST waited until next week for an update and not spoil the momentum ;) - 2 trades earlier now there are 44. Volume picking up considerably.

I didn’t realise PEN have a YouTube channel with their products: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nrHzLPinOU0&t=3s - if anyone is interested.

Yes I believe he was referring to the Boeing contract which was likely in discussion around that time, but has likely only recently been agreed on. Interesting how there was price monitoring extensions yesterday - Boeing released the news yesterday according to their media relations but unsure at what time… PEN obviously could not release the news before Boeing. It is a significant contract for the company and hopefully more will follow.

It looks a lot more promising. Contract is initially set to 2024 as well. Anybody have live data on prices and volume? This will spike a momentum play for a couple of days I imagine.

Good news on the long-term Boeing contract. Hopefully will see this move from here.

This is just the start of a long storm ahead for Curry’s. Consumer activity is declining - large pension deficit - net debt is dangerously high and liquidity ratios look poor - it actually looks similar to Carillion in that respect. It wouldn’t surprise me if we hear a few horror stories over the coming 6-18 mi the - short positions have been increased, all taken out in the last two months. It wouldn’t surprise me if this fell a further 50% from current levels. I honestly can’t see how they can turn this around, especially throughout these unprecedented times ahead…

Yes, I do follow some of ST work, among other micro/small cap investors who have a good track record of beating the market and I am very aware that he has rates this as a recent buy.

The majority of my positions are in funds and companies with solid fundamental metrics - As stated before, this was a ‘speculative buy’ for me on the momentum of positive news; I suppose you could argue that in this particular position I could be classified as a trader.

I personally feel the price will fall in the short-term but will rise significantly in the medium/long-term (2024 onwards). To clarify, I do not dispute the significance of the findings, my view is that the recent rise is part of a momentum trap and the price will tail off in the coming months - I look forward to hopefully being able to secure a longer-term position at a lower price, if not successful then I wish you all the best!

I agree, token purchase. If several directors were buying I would see it as a positive and follow the money. Sometimes individual purchases can be slightly misleading.

Financials due 21/02/21. I’m not a chartist, but it would be interesting if anyone who is good with them could see if volume and momentum picks up in the week or two leading to the results. May be an indicator of some positive news, also if we see more directors buys I’d take that as a positive sign.

Nice to have a tolerable thread of investors here - I hope it doesn’t get wiped out on a momentum play.

I agree. Appropriate market reaction to the RNS.
I speculatively bought in preparation for Anchois results and sold at 11.91p with a 46% profit margin. 46% in 7 weeks.

I have no doubt that this company will reach higher double digits in the future and I will plan another entry point when price fall to single digits again in preparation for a longer game. Remember 2024 is two years away from now. I have no doubt that the company is in a stronger position in terms of future projections with the recent appraisal of Anchois-2 but time is money in this game and until consistent revenues begin to stream through the share price will be very volatile and ultimately reactive to speculation.

Good luck to all that continue to hold here; there are some very knowledgable posters in this thread but there also some who show signs of confirmation bias and endowment bias.

For now, I see this as a speculative momentum trap until production and revenues come on stream.

Good luck all and take care.

This appears to be, from where I am sat at least, very under-loved and overly sold. MCAP currently standing at £10M net cash at £5M. Recent loss of contract in RNS expected to hit -£300k in revenue, which is around 10% of gross revenue, but not sure how that warrants a 40% drop in the share price, compounded against the yearly drop it has already suffered given some of the high profile clients it has on its book. I can likely see dividends possibly being scrapped, and in a way I’d rather them do that, pay down some debt and better stabilise the foundations of the company whilst riding through the pandemic. However, I am not sure if that is likely to happen given such a high percentage of individual investors in the company.

A very difficult company to analyse, but one of the better ones within the Microcap segment. I note that it was rated a recovery buy from ST at IC on 06/09/21 when the price was 135p - a further 44% decline to the share price on -£300,000 revenue doesn’t add up in my eyes.

I would welcome other peoples views here as this is an incredibly niche industry and market to both value and penetrate…

This news is incredible and the market haven’t even clicked yet… reduce net debt from $78M to below $10M - prepared to pay a special dividend and looking at purchasing more land in close proximity to current operations. Also, they have benefited from increase commodity pricing, which looks to be holding reasonably strong - the companies value, quality and liquidity credentials have improved significantly; which further de-risks this investment.

I have been watching this company alongside AEP for a while and I have finally taking a position today. Only 2% increase in SP and low buying volume suggests that this is clearly unloved or under the radar - earnings release due March 21st 2022 so give time to add to my position over the coming few months.

I’m trying to work out the same reasoning myself. There doesn’t appear to be any negative RNS issued and nothing I can see towards Vietnam’s economy or stock market etc - all I can see online is this https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/vietnams-circular-economy-revised-law-on-environment-protection.html/

I am unsure of why the 8% drop unless there is inside information etc - the latest RNS was positive outlook on 2022. I’m not overly worried, I think it’s MMs trying to tree shake. I wonder what level it needs to drop before they do a price monitoring alert

Market build up, momentum beginning to increase FY results due September. Good market adds for Specialist on Television. I added to my holding in the dip to 170.00

This was recommended a while ago in IC - there aren’t a huge circulation of people get get IC - around 30,000 people so will likely make little difference to SP movement.

ST did recommend around March time (when I initially bought it). Went down circa 15% by then; not back at break even: should’ve added back then.

There’s a bigger picture here; a lot of metal companies are up due to increase in commodity prices, which will ultimately increase profits.

I noticed this was Tipped in IC Alpha report at 38p; with a target price of 55p... It is now 23p; AGM is next week. This must be trading at around 70% below NAV now...

What are peoples views on the work needing to be done to make this profitable; new chairman on the board? is he likely to step down?