Member Info for antonvb

Seems to be happening every morning lately.....drops 3 to 5% and rebounds back. I know the minute I try to join in by selling before close and buying on open will be the day a catalyst RNS drops and it rockets before I can get back in :-(

Https://energynewsafrica.com/index.php/2023/07/24/kenya-tullow-hopeful-of-getting-strategic-partner-for-turkana-oil-project/

With articles like this saying Kenya stand to earn $8B, would you want to announce to the people that we decided not to approve the FDP and you can keep living in extreme poverty a bit longer ...... I don't think so.

It's worth looking at the 1H 2022 reserves report. It shows total oil equivalent of 242 MMboe. This is valued at $5.2B prior to hedging and $4.7B post hedging. Kenya has 472m recoverable reserves , which is roughly double. Surely when the reserves are reclassified as 2P reserves they'd be worth around $10B and Tullows 77.5% around $7.7B. Not sure at what point this classification changes. Again a simplistic calculation as the formula for calculating the value is complicated and I don't know exactly how it's calculated, so just using the current 2P reserve valuation as a rough guide.

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/5316/6316/4690/1H_2022_Reserves_Report-final.pdf

That's the million dollar question and again looking at what we know. Tullow have billed the Kenyan government $2B for what they have spent so far, who've disputed the amount. However, even if they negotiated it down to half, that's $1B of which 77.5% would be worth $775,000. Then at $80 oil if you multiply the 472m recoverable barrels estimated it's around $38B. So 77.5% of that would be $29B. This is obviously very simplistic, however the seems to be the way the Kenyans are looking at valuing their 22.5% given the following comment:

https://twitter.com/NationalOilKE/status/1681732042227105803?s=20

"NOC stands to earn $8 billion at the current rate of $80 a barrel. We can do a lot with this kind of money. The benefits the country stands to benefit in jobs, royalties and infrastructural development is a lot more."

So the short answer is a lot :-)

i think too much and i post on her too much ...... so here's me posting my thoughts.

we now know the kenyan government get 22.5%, so that leaves 77.5%. not using any clever calculations and back of a *** packet type stuff, just thinking about what sounds good. if i was rahul i'd be looking to perhaps keep 27.5% and sell the remaining 50% to fund the development. or perhaps at worst keep 22.5% to equal the stake owned by the kenyan government and sell the remaining 55% to the new partner to fund and operate the development. i would not want to go to the shareholders after being gifted 50% and say we now have a smaller interest than the kenyan government. i of course view things in very simplistic terms, however i think that would just be embarrassing.

It also details cost recovery if you're interested....

COST RECOVERY, PRODUCTION SHARING, TAXATION, GOVERNMENT PARTICIPATION AND DOMESTIC SUPPLY OBLIGATIONS

36.

Cost Recovery and Uplift

(1)

Subject to the provisions of this contract, the contractor shall be entitled to recover the petroleum costs incurred and paid by the contractor pursuant to the provisions of this contract and duly entered in the contractor's books of accounts, supplemented by the Uplift referred to in sub-clause 36(3), by taking and separately disposing of an amount equal in value to a maximum of sixty percent (60%)of each category of all petroleum produced from the contract area during that fiscal year and not used in upstream petroleum operations. Such cost recovery petroleum, including the recovered Uplift, is hereinafter referred to as "Cost Petroleum" consisting of two (2) categories, Cost Oil and Cost Gas.

Continued.....

30 Days for the cabinet secretary to approve after FDP approval

60 Days for parliament to approve after cabinet secretary approval

http://kenyalaw.org:8181/exist/kenyalex/actview.xql?actid=No.%202%20of%202019

31.

Ratification by Parliament

(1)

The Cabinet Secretary shall, within thirty days of the approval of a field development plan submitted in accordance with the terms of a production sharing contract entered into under this Act, submit the production sharing contract together with the field development plan to Parliament for ratification in accordance with Article 71 of the Constitution.

(2)

Parliament shall, within sixty days after receipt of the production sharing contract and the field development plan under sub-section (1)—

(a)

ratify the production sharing contract and the field development plan; or

(b)

refuse to ratify the production sharing contract and the field development plan and refer the documents back to the Cabinet Secretary for reconsideration stating the reasons for the refusal.

(3)

Parliament shall, in carrying out its obligation under sub-section (2), undertake public participation.

(4)

The Cabinet Secretary shall, upon accordance refusal under sub-section (2)(b), consider the reasons and reservations on their merits and resubmit the same to Parliament for approval.

(5)

If Parliament does not make a decision under subsection (2) within ninety days, the production sharing contract and the field development plan shall be deemed to have been ratified.

Seakingalpha ....... With regards to your statement "Now Tullow has double its interest for nothing it allows them more flexibility to offer concessions to get this project over the line." The link below is the article that I was referring to last week about Kenya not disclosing it's revenue sharing agreement with Tullow. I'm starting to think the 22.5% recently announced by the chairman of National Oil in Kenya is a renegotiated figure and not the original figure agreed. To me it seems strange it has suddenly been disclosed now, and on Twitter of all things while there's big smiles all round in the photos.

https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/latest-news/kenya-govt-opts-to-keep-oil-revenue-sharing-agreements-confidential-tullow-oil-says-it-is-open-to-disclosure/

Interesting....and what's also interesting is on that page is that it shows this related article

https://nation.africa/kenya/business/kenya-to-gazette-five-new-oil-blocks-for-auction--4260638

Now why would they auction more blocks if they weren't going to approve the FDP. Also, no one would be willing to buy them if they didn't approve it or if they nationalised the oil Tullow plans to extract or gave it to the Chinese as some have suggested.

For me I think the approval of the FDP is now just a matter of going through the motions. After all Tullow worked with the government to revise the FDP and the government has 22.5%. The question is will they get a stretegic partner and on what terms. Can't see why they wouldn't once it is approved and why would the Indonesians commit to building a refinery in Kenya if the oil is never coming out the ground.

It's been a long wait for this and we'd probably be there already if it wasn't for the change in government last year. However, considering there was a change in government and we'll know by September, I think Rahul has done a fantastic job. In a few months time I think holders will be very very happy......except of course the long long term holders who bought over £10 and the people who sold me shares at 9.7p. However, that's the way it goes. I lost a fair chunk on Thomas Cook when it went bust, so hopefully this is my time and they will get theirs again at some point.

GLA

Looks like admin has finally taken action ..... doctordong, NSVPatel and all their incarnations seem to be gone from this BB.

Https://theinformer.co.ke/63855/tullow-oil-seek-new-partners-to-drive-kenya-oil-project/

Second last paragraph is extremely encouraging......

I see Rahul in Kenya meeting the Energy ministers and not the Chinese. They Tweet everything and there's been no meetings with the Chinese that I've seen.

I think the costs will be recovered from oil extraction as Davis Chirchir alluded to this speaking in Parliament in terms of the fact they need to be careful that it basically isn't milked to recover costs for a few years and then the operators walk.

https://youtu.be/gG4LStxeflI

As Rahul said this is the year people will stop talking about debt .... or something along those lines. And remember as it is constantly point out and I openly have admitted to for 3 years.....I ain't no expert.

Somebody definitely said it....

I don't need your sympathy thanks...... I'm very comfortable overall financially and still 50% up in 3 years. I could sell and take a nice profit, however I've always believed this has a lot more potential than 60p and still do. So I'm holding out for a mega profit. Right or wrong it's my opinion, I'm entitled to it and if £1 plus never happens that's just one of those things in life. Win some lose some.

Imagine if you'd listed to Slater606 at 22p when they said this was going sub 10p again.....

Exactly. No one is denying they were right and longs were wrong to hold on the drop from 60p. However, the hindsight they post with is such a wonderful thing and I think they're making the same mistake the longs made holding from 60p. ..... I'd also just like to remind them of the current score:

52 Week Low 21.84p

52 Week High 53.95

Current share price 32.30p

Shorts have lost 47.89% of potential profit since the year low

Longs have lost 40.13% of potential profit since the year high

ZZZZZZZ ..... someone wske me up when we're sub 10p again.....

A very very positive article I think.....

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/business/article/2001477661/tullow-seeks-new-partners-to-drive-kenya-oil-project

Despite a valiant effort by the shorts to fight back, longs still in the lead.....

52 Week Low 21.84p

52 Week High 53.95

Current share price 32.70p

Shorts have lost 49.73% of potential profit since the year low

Longs have lost 39.38% of potential profit since the year high

Thanks J.Bond .... I follow a lot of obscure politicians in Kenya and anyone who is mentioned in any of the related articles. Definitely paid off as they seem to love posting on Twitter and aren't as cautious as they should be with revealing information. Things like including a presentation screen in the background where you can see information and gems like this.

https://twitter.com/NationalOilKE/status/1681732030730518541?s=20

"With the State’s carry-in interest of 22.5 per cent share in the production sharing contract,"

Could be wrong, however I believe the Kenyan government has not disclosed this before. Pretty sure I saw an article stating this, however can't seem to find it again.

And you should see your broker to close your short......