Member Info for antonvb

I think the Kenya Pipeline Company are following this BB

https://twitter.com/kenyapipeline/status/1685925694214189057?s=20

I interpreted "adding c.7 kboepd net production during the first half of the year", as adding 7kpd production for the year in the first 6 months. However, think you're both right, it is actually reading adding 7kpd production for 6 months, so would be 7k for the year and not double. I stand corrected.

Also, the agreement is for 19bcf which is 19,000,000mcf and if they are supplying 100 mmscfpd that will last them approximately 190 days. The 190th day of the year is the 9th of July. So we must be close to or past them requiring a new agreement. I think the issue for Tullow is that the gas in Ghana is used for power generation, so pulling the plug and selling the gas to someone else would probably be crippling to Ghana and not be make them very popular. So probably a balancing act between trying to get commercial value and at the same time not turning the government completely against you.

I'm not an expert on this, so this is assuming my calculations to convert are correct.

Seems pretty clear to me that the 7k is for the first 6 months, so 14k for the year assuming another agreement was signed and the gas used. Could be wrong though.

"The 19 bcf is expected to have been supplied by the middle of the year at an anticipated export rate in excess of 100 mmscfpd, adding c.7 kboepd net production during the first half of the year."

From the 2022 YE results. Not sure what oil price they've used, however the interim agreement (assuming one evey 6 months) is worth around 14 kboepd per annum. This appears not to be factored into 2023 projections. Any agreement at commercial prices would be worth more than this as the current gas price is about 5x the price in the interim agreement. Which is probably why Ghana are dragging their feet and not in a hurry to sign it.

"Group working interest production guidance for 2023 is 58-64 kboepd, 💥 excluding 💥 19 bcf of gas sold under the Interim Gas Sales Agreement and any additional volumes of gas sold during the course of the year.

Gas Commercialisation

In December 2022, an Interim Gas Sales Agreement for 19 bcf gross of Jubilee gas was executed, utilising the price for TEN associated gas referenced in the 2017 TEN Gas Sales Agreement which was $50c/mmbtu. The 19 bcf is expected to have been supplied by the middle of the year at an anticipated export rate in excess of 100 mmscfpd, 💥adding c.7 kboepd net production💥 during the first half of the year. Further gas export will be contingent on reaching agreement on acceptable commercial terms for future volumes."

Https://twitter.com/MorendatKE/status/1684883711916220416

Https://twitter.com/NationalOilKE/status/1684889743245324288?s=20

Been a bit quite on Twitter with regards Kenya lately, so nice to see something pop up......

Hmmmm .... good question. I think when I read that article I started to doubt myself and didn't want to have posted info earlier giving false hope. Lapsset is a regional project, so thought this could potentially not be Kenya specific and to refine crude oil imported for the region. I could be wrong and hope I am, as on checking again the Kenyan pipeline for Tullow is also part of the lapsset program.

https://www.lapsset.go.ke/index.php/projects/crude-oil-pipeline/

So I guess it could be for Kenyan oil or imported oil, however using the same logic I used earlier ..... would they be building a refinery before knowing Tullow can actually get the oil out the ground. So must surely be for imported oil ..... we'll see soon enough I guess.

Done some more digging and found this article ....

https://www.the-star.co.ke/business/kenya/2023-05-20-ministers-commit-to-expedite-sh25tn-lapsset-projects/

This leads me to believe the refinery is probably for imported oil rather than oil extracted in Kenya. Obviously nothing stopping them from refining oil extracted in Kenya and would make sense to refine local oil rather than imported oil. So maybe this refinery is not as significant as I first thought, however I think it is still a positive indicator in terms the Kenyans wanting oil production.

Good to see that admin has upped their game considerably .... the accounts seem to be disappearing as fast as they're created.

Possibly. Doesn't really matter though whose share or how much of it is refined, the point I was making is that you don't build a refinery unless you have oil to refine. So unless Tullow start pumping oil they still have to find it first before they can refine it and no one is going to build a refinery on the off chance you may discover oil.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, however I don't think any oil is currently being extracted in Kenya

https://nationaloil.co.ke/upstream/#:~:text=Petroleum%20Exploration%20in%20Kenya%20began,majority%20within%20the%20Tertiary%20Rift.

So Indonesia has signed an agreement with Kenya to build an oil refinery in Kenya just in case one day in the future someone discovers and starts extracting oil there????????????????????????????????????????????????????

https://twitter.com/KenInvest/status/1681363826652872713?s=20

https://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/90720-indonesia-eyes-highly-demanded-kenyan-oil-multi-billion-deal-govt

https://en.tempo.co/read/1741155/indonesian-minister-says-pertamina-plans-on-establishing-oil-refinery-in-kenya

https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/business/article/2001477270/kenya-and-indonesia-boost-bilateral-relations-with-investment-deals

Worth remembering that even if another interim gas agreement for the next 6 months is signed instead of the full blown agreement wanted, that still means approximately another 14k barrels of oil equivalent for the year that is not currently in any of the forecasts. Equivalent to an additional 25% production increase.

From the 2022 YE results:

"Group working interest production guidance for 2023 is 58-64 kboepd, 💥 excluding 💥 19 bcf of gas sold under the Interim Gas Sales Agreement and any additional volumes of gas sold during the course of the year."

Gas Commercialisation

In December 2022, an Interim Gas Sales Agreement for 19 bcf gross of Jubilee gas was executed, utilising the price for TEN associated gas referenced in the 2017 TEN Gas Sales Agreement which was $50c/mmbtu. The 19 bcf is expected to have been supplied by the middle of the year at an anticipated export rate in excess of 100 mmscfpd, 💥adding c.7 kboepd net production💥 during the first half of the year. Further gas export will be contingent on reaching agreement on acceptable commercial terms for future volumes.

You do know gmaxwell = NSVPatel/doctordong, so you're wasting your breath.

Latest score ..... longs streaking into the lead

52 Week Low 21.84p

52 Week High 53.95

Current share price 34.28p

Shorts have lost 56.96% of potential profit since the year low

Longs have lost 36.46% of potential profit since the year high

It is in Kenyan law in the Petroleum act. So as long as Tullow don't default, if they don't approve the FDP, they'd have no choice but to pay something in the end. Although they would definitely dispute the amount. If the Kenyan government didn't pay or abide by it's own laws then they can forget about any future foreign investment and those oil blocks they plan to auction next year are worthless. It's probably a mute point though, as it certainly looks like they want to get that oil out of the ground.

http://kenyalaw.org:8181/exist/kenyalex/actview.xql?actid=No.%202%20of%202019

53.

Dispute Resolution

Amicable Settlement

(1)

Except as otherwise provided in this contract, any difference or dispute arising out of or in relation to or in connection with this contract shall, as far as possible, be settled amicably. If any difference or dispute remains unresolved, either party shall have the right to serve upon the other party a detailed statement stating the issues in dispute. Within fourteen (14) days of receipt of the statement or other mutually agreed period, the Cabinet Secretary and the chief executive of the contractor shall meet to resolve the difference or dispute. Where no settlement is reached within thirty (30) days from the date of the meeting, either party shall have the right, subject to clause (2), to have such difference or dispute be resolved through arbitration in accordance with UNCITRAL arbitration rules adopted by the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law.

etc. etc.

If I made 1% a day I'd be very, very, very happy.....but don't worry my hands are nailed to the bench. I've been waiting so long now that I'm not about to go f*** it up by getting clever trying to trade this. Although that said if you'd traded this share over the past few years, and knew what you were doing, you'd have made a killing. Possibly why it doesn't go up, as it's become a nice easy money spinner for the traders.

Seems to be happening every morning lately.....drops 3 to 5% and rebounds back. I know the minute I try to join in by selling before close and buying on open will be the day a catalyst RNS drops and it rockets before I can get back in :-(

Https://energynewsafrica.com/index.php/2023/07/24/kenya-tullow-hopeful-of-getting-strategic-partner-for-turkana-oil-project/

With articles like this saying Kenya stand to earn $8B, would you want to announce to the people that we decided not to approve the FDP and you can keep living in extreme poverty a bit longer ...... I don't think so.

It's worth looking at the 1H 2022 reserves report. It shows total oil equivalent of 242 MMboe. This is valued at $5.2B prior to hedging and $4.7B post hedging. Kenya has 472m recoverable reserves , which is roughly double. Surely when the reserves are reclassified as 2P reserves they'd be worth around $10B and Tullows 77.5% around $7.7B. Not sure at what point this classification changes. Again a simplistic calculation as the formula for calculating the value is complicated and I don't know exactly how it's calculated, so just using the current 2P reserve valuation as a rough guide.

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/5316/6316/4690/1H_2022_Reserves_Report-final.pdf