Member Info for antonvb

52 Week Low 21.84p

52 Week High 53.95

Current share price 37.38p

Shorts have lost 71.15% of potential profit since the year low

Longs have lost 30.71% of potential profit since the year high

The FDP has already been revised and Tullow worked with the Kenyan government to revise it. So it shouldn't need to be revised again, but I guess you never know.

Https://twitter.com/africaoilweek/status/1691738437026480371?t=Zz0lN3neyJF5iMOdRzzjfA&s=19

Https://twitter.com/Brianmawira254/status/1689745366844166144?t=Ak7w5YtoIbCxALGhOzInew&s=19

sorry, on holiday this week so can't be ****d to work it out....however not looking good for the shorts and nice to see rahul is getting **** done!

gla

What the hell...one more for good measure

https://twitter.com/NationalOilKE/status/1687111146682388481

And another....

https://twitter.com/NationalOilKE/status/1687111149886836736?s=20

Https://twitter.com/NationalOilKE/status/1687113495362609155?s=20

Says the person who creates a new user every 2 minutes to troll this BB ...... does make me laugh.

Scrodingerscat .... I've never claimed to be an expert and you shouldn't be surprised. Most on here either don't know what they're banging on about or just think they know what they're banging on about. Plus anyone who makes investment decisions based on anonymous postings on here from unknown sources with hidden agendas needs their head read. At least I'm open about my position, intentions and use my real name unlike most on here who have an alias.

Thinking about it I probably should of used the price in the RNS, so

7 kboepd is 40,600,000,000 BTU

Divided by 1,000,000 is 40,600 mBTU @ $2.90

So worth approximately $117,740 per day or $7,182,140 over the next 2 months

So trying to educate myself I went to wikipedia and found this....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrel_of_oil_equivalent

Which states that a BOE as equal to 5.8 million BTU and this website states that the price of gas is $2.55 per million BTU

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdm.htm

So if my rudimentary calculations are correct and correct me if I'm off track

7 kboepd is 40,600,000,000 BTU

Divided by 1,000,000 is 40,600 mBTU @ $2.55

So worth approximately $103,530 per day or $6,315,330 over the next 2 months

Hmmm I guess that's why we're still 34p today on that RNS

Ah...looks like I totally misunderstood it then :-(

Thanks for clarifying.

Yes...however kboepd means thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. So is one of these worth say $80 based on an oil price of $80. If so, surely if you increased the price 5 fold then it would equate to 5x 7k.

If the new price is $2.90/mmbtu, which is over 5x the previous price, does this mean we're adding c.35 kboepd for the next 2 months????? None of which is in the forecasts for the year.

"Group working interest production guidance for 2023 is 58-64 kboepd, 💥 excluding 💥 19 bcf of gas sold under the Interim Gas Sales Agreement and any additional volumes of gas sold during the course of the year.

Gas Commercialisation

In December 2022, an Interim Gas Sales Agreement for 19 bcf gross of Jubilee gas was executed, utilising the price for TEN associated gas referenced in the 2017 TEN Gas Sales Agreement which was $50c/mmbtu. The 19 bcf is expected to have been supplied by the middle of the year at an anticipated export rate in excess of 100 mmscfpd, 💥adding c.7 kboepd net production💥 during the first half of the year. Further gas export will be contingent on reaching agreem

Thanks for sharing. That is a great find, as is the most comprehensive update we've had on Kenya to date. Sounds very promising and also nice to see what's happening in Ghana appears to be going very well too.

https://myjoyonline.com/annie-adu-unlocking-ghanas-oil-potential-with-jubilee-south-east-project

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0dWhNaiFb8

Https://www.trtafrika.com/africa/kenyan-president-ruto-threatens-cabinet-sackings-over-lateness-14287112

https://twitter.com/EnergyMinK/status/1686349934583242753?t=0POgbuCuTKWFZFB5SyRsPw&s=19

I know they hedge, so they look at more than just the Tullow share price. However, I really don't understand why the big shorts don't close when the share price tanks. They had the opportunity to close sub 10p in 2020 and didn't. They then had the opportunity to do the same in the low 20's and didn't. Surely they'd say wow we dodged the bullet on that one and close? Do they only close if this gets to 0p, surely not? That seems like a dangerous game to me. Or is it that they can only close when oil or Tullow is in extreme distress as buying back that number of shares in normal times will drive the price up significantly. So effectively they are stuck at the moment.

I made the "mistake" of not selling in the 60's and watching this go all the way down to the low 20's. If we go over 60p again I'll definitely protect myself from another big drop and don't think I'll make that mistake again ..... least I bloody hope not. Don't think I'll ever understand how all this works.

Thought it might be time for another update on the current score. Despite a monumental effort by the shorts on Friday, the longs have made a valiant fight back and remain in the lead.

52 Week Low 21.84p

52 Week High 53.95

Current share price 34.56p

Shorts have lost 58.24% of potential profit since the year low

Longs have lost 35.94% of potential profit since the year high

Another way to look at it of course is that we've gone up almost 60% since the middle of May. If you bought in at the low twenties, well done you!