Member Info for antonvb

Best news I've heard in a while....gets it wrong every time so expect 55 to 60p within 2 weeks....

I'm not going to get involved in the drama. I can afford to hold for the time being and that's what I'm going to do. I've seen nothing but good things from Rahul and I think his latest appointment is an excellent choice. In fact I don't think the market realise what a good choice it is and what he can do for Tullow. Share price is currently being abused but they can't change the fact oil is over $85. This will show in the end of year results when they're published next year and hopefully we'll see a swing from over a billion loss in 2020 to a profit in 2021. That and few good RNS's along the way and we'll be flying. Also, we know Tullow is not going bust anymore so the shorts will need an exit point as they can't hold forever. So just a waiting game now.

They have a green background on their logo....what more do you need?

Like clockwork, every time the share price dips, we suddenly get all the negative posters popping up. Those who feel the need to pop in to tell us how badly Tullow is doing, when in fact the reality is quite the opposite. Don't get me wrong, Tullow is no Shell or BP, however it's a decent prospect with good potential. Yes, we didn't get a surprise announcement in the presentation of an extra 20k barrels a day, but that is no surprise. What we did get is confirmation that Tullow is out of rough waters and steaming ahead. The big take away from the presentation for me is that last year Rahul was talking about a 10 year plan and is now talking about a 5 year plan. I think that is a very good indication that things are going well behind the scenes. The share price may flounder a bit in the short term and you may not make a quick buck, but if you can afford to be patient then there's a real possibility of a great return. Or you can just sell, put it in your savings account and hope the BOE increases interest rates by 0.25% soon to counter inflation.

GLA and have a good weekend!

Still way more upside than downside. We just need one good RNS and this could go up 20% in minutes and there is potential for several e.g. increased stake in TEN and Jubilee, Kenya pipeline agreed, Kenya partner, Uganda FID, new wells, etc.

TLW could pre-empt and buy 3.8% of Jubilee and 8.3% of TEN

Seems like a no brainer as that extra oil wouldn't be hedged, so would take advantage of the current high oil price too. Would there be any politics involved with Kosmos that may prevent them or put them off doing that?

I can't wait for oil to get back to $60 so we can go to 65p again.....

No ... maths is OK ... made a typo in my share price .... was 52.06 by 08:02 ...... so yes 5%

Mmmm ignore my ramblings.... got my maths wrong :-(

Share price opened at 49.91 at 08:00 and went to 51.06 at 08:02. That's basically a 5% increase in 2 minutes. We need a nice update from Rahul this afternoon to blow these bots and shorters out the water.

Very ... this bouncing around between 51 and 53p doesn't excite me :-)

Oh, the grand old Duke of York
He had ten thousand shares
He watched them go up to the top
And he watched them down again
And when they were up, they were up
And when they were down, they were down
And when they were only half-way up
They were neither up nor down

https://toysmatrix.com/emirates-news-agency-africa-oil-week-to-highlight-unrivalled-opportunities-drive-investment-and-deal-making-across-africa/

I'll kick off the abuse..... if we wanted your opinion on RMM we'd have gone to the RMM share chat and read it there. So kindly go **** ***.

Some of the speakers at Africa Oil Week early next month..... I can't help feeling we're going to get an announcement on Kenya during or shortly after....

https://africa-oilweek.com/Speaker-list/leparan-gideon-morintat
https://africa-oilweek.com/Speaker-list/hon-minister-charles-keter
https://africa-oilweek.com/Speaker-list/speaker-john-munyes
https://africa-oilweek.com/Speaker-list/rahul-dhir
https://africa-oilweek.com/Speaker-list/madhan-srinivasan
https://africa-oilweek.com/Speaker-list/wissam-al-monthiry-1

and other people's money to gamble with.....

OK that makes sense, but your original post did make it sound like you started with £1809 and traded your way up to 260k shares.

Sageman I smell BS.... 260,000 shares with initial capital outlay of £1809. Be very surprised if that was correct. If you bought £1809 worth at 7p you would have started with 25,842 shares. You would then have to sell and buy back in at a 100% reduction over 3 times or at a 10% reduction God knows how many times.

And at some point they will run out of food on that iceberg and start to eat each other.......

To clarify the hedging position .... taken from the trading statement and HY results:

The realised oil price after hedging for the period was $60.8/bbl (1H 2020: $51.8/bbl) and before hedging $65.2/bbl (1H 2020: $42.5/bbl).

2H 2021 hedge position at 30 June 2021 Bopd Bought put (floor) Sold call Bought call
Collars 39,000 $48.12 $66.47 -
Three-way collars (call spread) 1,000 $50.00 $72.80 $82.80
Total/weighted average 40,000 $48.17 $66.63 $82.80

Hedge portfolio as of 30 June 2H 2021 2022 2023 2024
Hedged volume (bopd) 40,000 23,400 20,000 6,800
Weighted average floor $48/bbl $48/bbl $55/bbl $55/bbl
Weighted average sold call $67/bbl $72/bbl $69/bbl $69/bbl

A put is an options contract that gives the owner the right, but not the obligation, to sell a certain amount of the underlying asset, at a set price within a specific time. So that is the the minimum Tullow will get if they choose to exercise the option i.e. if oil is lower than the option price at the time they will sell it at that price and gain.

Call options are financial contracts that give the option buyer the right, but not the obligation, to buy a stock, bond, commodity, or other asset or instrument at a specified price within a specific time period. If oil is lower than the option price the buyer of the option will choose not to buy the oil and conversely, if oil is higher than the option price they will buy the oil at the option (reduced) price.

Lot more complicated than that, but that's my limited grasp of it. Also, not too sure what the difference between a Sold call and a Bought call is, so if someone can enlighten me that'd be great.