Member Info for antonvb

https://www.***************************/tullow-oil-plc-34.8-potential-upside-indicated-by-jp-morgan/4121103522

Well let's hope it hits 34.7p so Stupmy can finally buy in and start ramping.

Lots of things could happen ... but still think it is priced in as was in the 2022 HY results the market is always forward looking and risk averse. If you look at the historical chart you can see that the drops from 50p to 35p started half way through the year.

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/8216/4680/8084/Tullow_FY_Results_2021_FINAL.pdf

"In Kenya, the Group had received a 15 month licence extension from September 2020 to December 2021 which was contingent on certain conditions, including submission of a technically and commercially compliant Field Development Plan (FDP). On 10 December 2021 Tullow and its JV Partners submitted an FDP to the Government of Kenya and fulfilled its licence obligations. The Group expects a production licence to be granted once due Government process has been completed. In line with its accounting policy, the Group has performed a VIU assessment of Kenya asset following identification of triggers for impairment reversal. This resulted in an NPV significantly in excess of the book value of $255.2 million. However, the Group has identified the following uncertainties in respect of the Group’s ability to realise
the estimated VIU; receiving and subsequently finalising an acceptable offer from a strategic partner and securing governmental approvals relating thereto, obtaining financing for the project and government deliverables. These items require satisfactory resolution before the Group can take FID. Due to the binary nature of these uncertainties the Group was unable to either adjust the cashflows or discount rate appropriately. It has therefore used its judgement and assessed a probability of achieving FID and therefore the recognition of commercial reserves. This probability was applied to the VIU to determine a risk adjusted VIU and compared against the net book value of the asset.
Based on this there is no impairment or impairment reversal as at 31 December 2021. Should the uncertainties around the project are resolved there will be a reversal of previously recognised impairment. However, if the uncertainties are not resolved there will be an impairment of $255 million. "

They don't even mention Kenya on the 2002 HY reserves report as it is still classified as an exploration and evaluation asset:

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/5316/6316/4690/1H_2022_Reserves_Report-final.pdf

Kenya has an asset value of less than £300m and there's a lot of detail on Kenya and impairments in the 2021 annual report.

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/9516/4811/6186/Tullow_Oil_plc_2021_Annual_Report_and_Account_Index.pdf

Can you explain why you believe " impairment is not priced in.". Genuine question.

Yes, the gamble is it could go either way. However, I'd argue that no deal is already priced in which is why the price dropped from 60p to 35p since last year we were told the deal was imminent. Kenya has been dragging on since 2012, so no analysts believe it will happen so is reflected in the share price. That said, pretty sure we'd see a sizable drop if there was an RNS for a Kenya no deal, however it would probably recover over time. Let's face it Tullow has survived an apocalyptical drop in the oil price while not seeing a single penny from Kenya, so no reason to believe they wouldn't survive a no deal.

NSVPatel is short so I wouldn't pay too much attention to them. And if you look through their posts you won't find them offering a single fact.

The only thing not positive about Tullow is the share price, which ironically is what is positive about the share price. If you have funds to buy in at 35p. Despite all the white noise on here about the share price going to 20p, 35p looks to be the bottom and has been tested many times. The upside still remains:

Potential for a Kenya deal
Potential for a Ghana gas deal
Potential for a Guyana discovery
Potential for a take over
Hedging reducing in May
Potential for a strong oil price in 2023
Potential for debt refinancing

All that on the positive side against the negative of a big drop in the price of oil for which we're hedged against. For me it's a hold or buy if you can all day long.

You're catching up fast ..... :-)

Just ignore them BigRisky. Yes it is always good to get a balanced view, however you just get insults from them and predictions of gloom out of them on down days with zero factual argument and no disclosure of their position. Pretty obvious they are short and think they can influence the outcome of the share price by posting on here. The irony is they call me a fool for blindly ramping, when they are just doing the exact opposite of what I do. Yes I am a fool for not selling at 60p and buying back in the 40's as there were several opportunities to do this, just as Stumpy is a fool for waiting for their magic 34.7p while missing at least 3 opportunities to buy at 35p and sell for over 10%. Reality is any fool can trade with hindsight.

If you were so clever you would of bought at 35.3p on the 10th of January and sold last week at 39p.

NSVPatel..... are you serious. You've not stated a single fact since you started posting here. The simple truth is you're short and want this to drop below 30p. However, for some reason you can't seem to admit you're short and just make general negative statements about Tullow and personal insults. At least the holders are honest about their positions and why they want the share price to go up.

While we're not 50p at the moment we're not 20p either, so time will tell which side wins out. However, despite what you say there's more chance of positive news than bad news.

Why lower yourself to post on here when you could be posting on quality oilers like Exxon, Chevron, Occidental, BP and Shell?

......when we used to have to drop 10% or more in a day before we'd get the shorters popping in here to tell us our world was coming to an end. Now we drop 2% and they're instantly here like a bad rash. Must be desperate times for them.

An invitation to all those who think this is going to 30p or even 20p. Go short...come I dare you!

I took the price off this website

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TLW/trading-statement-operational-update-c7yz1rttbu35xkx.html

"Ghana's gas demand is expected to continue growing strongly, supporting economic development and growth of industry. We have identified approximately 2 TCF of gas resources in Jubilee and TEN. This indigenous resource has the potential to provide energy security for Ghana, while reducing dependence on the highly competitive global LNG market. We are preparing an integrated plan for the rapid development of this material resource."

2 TCF = 2000 BCF = 2,000,000,000 MMBtu
2,000,000,000 MMBtu * $2.85 = $5,700,000,000

Seems like a lot ... hope my calculations are correct.

Oh and by the way .... at the peak in gas price in August where it was $9.75 an MMBtu they''d have been worth around £370,500,000.

From this weeks RNS
"An Interim Gas Sales Agreement for 19 bcf of Jubilee gas was executed in December, representing the first commercialisation of Jubilee gas."

"In December, an interim gas sales agreement for 19 bcf gross of Jubilee gas was executed, valued at $50c/mmbtu, utilising the price for TEN associated gas referenced in the 2017 TEN Gas Sales Agreement. The 19 bcf is expected to have been supplied by the middle of the year at an anticipated export rate in excess of 100 mmscfpd, adding c.7 kboepd net production during the first half of the year. Further gas export will be contingent on reaching agreement on acceptable commercial terms for future volumes."

Correct me if I'm wrong, however I think ....

1 BCF = 1,000,000 MMBtu
19 BCF = 19,000,000 MMBtu

Price of an MMBtu of gas as per the RNS = $0.50
19,000,000 MMBtu * $0.50 = $9,500,000

So at worst looks like two of these sales a year is worth around $20,000,000 a year to Tullow. However, at the current market price of $2.85, two of these sales a year would be worth around $108,300,000 a year to Tullow. That is almost 20% of the current market cap of £556m.

I do wonder if they sold it very cheap as they want further gas rights for the gas they found last year when drilling one of the wells. It would be nice to get an RNS in this regard confirming an agreed price for future gas sales at a price closer to the current market value and the agreement to develop the additional gas reserves found.

A more positive view

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1004451/is-tullow-oil-set-to-deliver-upside-in-2023-1004451.html

In 3 years I've not seen any of these so called experts predictions accurately reflecting the share price or its movement. Got to remember, they like everyone else have an agenda.