Situation as I see it ...6 Jan 2026 14:06
There has been a lot of talk on the board over the past few days / weeks from both ends of the spectrum
From 'This thing is a sure fire deal that is going to change lives' right down to 'its a mess that is going to fail, Harry is a liar who is just trying to screw everyone out of money to line his own pockets'
Now I think most of us on this board would like to see Kefi succeed, though also, many of us 12 months ago probably thought we'd be further along the road by now than we are
From my perspective, delays are not a surprise for a company like this - large companies wanting to start a new mine have their own money already in the bank to just do it themselves, small companies like Kefi rely on investment - and nobody is going to give money for nothing, so if Kefi needs $340 million to get a mine operational, that money has to come from somewhere and the people giving it will want something in return
But there is clearly potential in the project given you have not only have banks offering millions in debt loans and the Ethiopian government investing, but the likes of BCM who are building the mine, putting in $23 million of their own money to the project
The idea of Harry throwing placements out to line his own pocket or set himself up for retirement doesn't make a huge amount of sense either
He's a businesses man so of course he's only in it for the money, but last I checked he owns around 114 million shares in Kefi
So every decision he makes that impacts the share price, sure it has an effect on us, but it has a far bigger impact on him - he stands to gain far more money by getting the mine operational than trying to just squeeze us
I've seen some people saying the price drop today is the markets aren't interested in this until its built, or that Ethiopia is very high risk
Well we all saw the SP rise from August when the talk was all about securing the $240 million debt agreement - the SP peaked around 1.8 after the RNS about almost being ready to sign the debt - that was a rise purely on the idea of the project getting ready to launch but still being 2 years away from full production,
And yes Ethiopia can be considered a riskier location than some other countries, but from what I can tell the situation in Ethiopia is no more risky today than it was back in October
So to me it seems the SP rose on the idea of the full funding being confirmed, then pulled back when the RNS showed that the debt was sorted but the remaining $100 million was awaiting finalisation
From my understanding of the RNS today, that seems mostly done now with a few last strangler bits of the gold streams that are waiting on others to finish
It seems like the project is moving, just not at the rate that many hoped and the SP is reacting to it
I do feel somewhat bad for Harry because he can't win - we've had days of saying he needs to update people on where the project is, so he does and then people moan about the update not having any breaking
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