Member Info for Angus513

Trump has just tweeted 5 mins ago that he's postponed his deadline of striking powerplants and apparently has been in productive talks with Iran to end the conflict (choose how much of that you actually believe)

But the markets have just rebounded as a result - hopefully Kefi does as well

GGP has managed to go from 735 to less than 500 in 18 days ...

Barrick from $50 to $37

Anglogold from $128 to $83

Did Harry screw all of them as well?

Don't worry so will I, all I mean is we still aren't officially funded, more like we have the funding in principle

As I understand the RNS, I don't think we are technically yet fully funded

The main bulk of the share raise is conditional shares which is says requires shareholder approval in the April meeting

So basically we then decide to we accept dilution to complete funding or reject it and leave Harry to try and find an alternative

"the share price has dropped significantly—down roughly 8% to 10%—following a major funding announcement.The primary reason for the drop is equity dilution"

That's strange given that the share price was that though for the entirety of the day, yet the share dilution wasn't even announced until after the market closed

Even more incredible how many other mining companies saw the same SP drops ... Were they all because of Kefi's dilution that hadn't even been announced at the time?

Is something you'll never hear on Dragon's Den - and with good reason - You never get money for nothing

Why so many negative posts about the RNS 'screwing shareholders'?

If the RNS had said "£20 million agreed with royalty company" - it would still involve giving up 6% off the top of gold revenue before it ever got to us!

It's funny that the last few days have been whining 'why the radio silence, we need an update' - now we get an update and people are whining about that

There was comments earlier regarding Jeremy's comments about a takeover, and people surprised that a royalty company is only interested in the mine they are getting royalty from, and not about the company that is currently working on the mine (which is no surprise because it makes no difference to Chancery which company produces the gold, only that it comes from TK) - but now people are unhappy that Harry isn't bringing in another third party company who will be as equally uninterested in Kefi and only in TK

And to anybody surprised about a placing, should probably go back and re-read the last few RNS's about financing - because they all clearly stated plain as day that there would be £10 million further placing as part of the outstanding £340 million

The only part that didn't hold true from that was that Harry said the £10 million placing would be at whatever the current SP was, not 15% below - however perhaps that was on the assumption that the £10 million placing would be the final piece after the last royalty agreement, and if that's fallen through and gold currently on a massive drop, maybe a discount is necessary to shift the shares

Either way, this puts us over the line of financed, with extra headroom to cover potential inflation driven price increases during construction, or surplus cash for future development

For anybody who has been claiming 'I've been saying for weeks it would be placing' - I trust you did the sensible thing then which was sell out weeks ago, and now you can buy back in now

If not - why are you still here? 🤔

@StephenX You are again claiming Harry lied about the streamers - It was Chancery's own CEO who said a few weeks ago that they would happily put up a further 10 million

So either he was also lying - OR circumstances have changed and they can no longer fund it ... Which if Chancery suffered that due to Trump's middle East adventures, then it stands to reason the same happened to the other royalty company who was in the works

"Motivated by cash" ... A businessman, motivated by cash? - Say it ain't so!

Yet the businessman who is "motivated by cash" has just further diluted the value of his very own stake in the company

So if he's motivated by cash then he must have made this decision on the basis that long term it will increase the value of his shareholding ... Which I am perfectly ok because it will mean my holding is worth more as well

It was already stated that there would be another placing

The extra of this placing is in place of the other royalty agreement which has presumably fallen through (it's pure assumption to say he was lying about it)

However, let's not forget that JG of Chancery had previously stated he would be prepared to put up another 10 million - but that hasn't been taken up

Which suggests that either A) Placing is a better option than royalties, in terms of investor returns

Or B) the change in global situation has forced Chancery to withdraw the offer ... Which likely explains why the other royalty agreement fell through

It really feels like Groundhog Day on this BB these days

The situation with Kefi today is no different than it was 2 weeks ago when the ground breaking ceremony took place

The prep work at the site is in progress

$310m of the $340m is signed off - the outside $20m is planned to be coming from gold royalty companies with the legal documents in circulation

They also have the potential of $40m in preference shares to Ethiopian institutes - which logically could be considered a backup option if they fail to get the royalties agreed

And yes there will likely be a placing coming - it's spelled out in the RNS that the other $10m of the outstanding $30m is coming from issuing shares - so if anything the placement would be good news because its 1 of the 2 final jigsaw pieces for the funding, and it makes sense to do both at the same time (issue the placement along with confirming the royalty, so its all done)

But until there is an RNS confirming one way or the other, everything is as it already was

Yet every day this board manages nearly 1/4 of the number of posts as there are trades - with seemingly half constantly fixating on a minute by minute update of what trades are going through, and the other half wanting validation that their previous statements about missing deadlines are correct

To anybody new to Kefi and considering investing, I wouldn't be surprised if they took 1 look at this board and thought "sod that"

Its not new Harry suggests target times for things being done and then things don't happen by that time - however, everything previously where Harry has set deadlines and then missed them, he's still ultimately achieved even if it was late

So no, we don't have the final $20m royalty agreement done and released by the end of February - but there is also nothing to say it won't be done

The only question you need to ask yourself is do you think it will get done

If 'Yes' - then we wait for it - obsessing over ever little trade or seeking validation for your opinions isn't changing anything

If 'No' - then why are you wasting your time here?

Apologies for the rant - I've been a long time holder in Kefi, currently in profit and everything I've seen so far says it will succeed eventually - and my investment is in a retirement ISA so I'm not day trading it, I just keep an eye on this board for any breaking news so that if things hit the fan I can avoid a loss ... but I can never find any such posts for the maelstrom of arguments going back and forth over nothing

Not to turn things political, but i'll be amazed if Trump is still president in 2029. For starters there is the whole 2 term rule in the constitution which he'd then have to change - but even if you take the idea that he runs as VP and the the elected president resigns

Any attempt Trump makes to be involved in the election race would open the door for the Democrats to do the same and bring Obama back for a 3rd term - and I'm fairly sure in an election between those two, the US population wouldn't vote Trump

Currently there is more tension and fighting in this forum than there is in Ethiopia

This stock is weird ...

Yesterday we saw gold price rise along with the SP of pretty much every mining company, but Kefi dropped

Today, gold has slipped and so too have the miners .. but Kefi has gone up

Maybe we need gold to completely crash and then we'll all be rich 🤣

To clarify I didn't say it wasn't construction, but that at the moment it's site preparation rather than the actual mine

We are about 18 months from getting gold out of the ground but the boom price now, so perhaps most investors are just focused on investing in those who are mining / close to mining Vs a company like kefi which is a way off and by which point gold prices might have slipped back

I wonder if the stagnant SP is due to still awaiting final finance signoff RNS plus the construction of the mine hasn't actually started yet (as far as I'm aware) - Isn't the construction work currently the resettlement of locals?

I would expect the SP to start moving up once the actual mine begins construction

Ultimately the SP is of little concern to anybody not after a quick profit. Full production is due 2028 - by then SP should be way up, so anybody who is planning to hold until then it doesn't matter weather the SP steadily rises over the next 2 years or sits stagnant for 2 years and then sky rockets .... if anything the 2nd option is arguably better because it gives more time for us to invest

How would a conflict affect the mine though, not only is the mine 1000km away, but the tensions are about border lines and Ethiopia wanting access to the Red Sea ... Which is the wrong direction for the mine

There is no hint of Eritrea attempting to invade Ethiopia, certainly not that far across the country that Tulu Kapi would be at risk

I think it's more an educated guess about when the ceremony will be

We know from Mario that Chancery are visiting the mine this week and that he's coming home tomorrow. So mine visit has to be either done, happening before end of tomorrow

We also know from him that Chancery will be meeting the Ethiopian president - well the only logical reason that an investor in an Ethiopian mine is meeting the Ethiopian government that also are invested in that mine, is something directly related to said mine

And the next big step for the mine is the final signoff before construction starts

On the one hand its frustrating for me that I've been following and holding in Kefi for about 7 years, but enlarged my holding in recent months - so my average is much higher than it could have been (hindsight is a wonderful thing)

On the flip side though, I have a portion of my holding in a regular ISA, but my largest portion is in a lifetime ISA, you can invest up to £4k each year and the government top it up by 25% ... so not only will I not being paying tax to the government, but 25% of the profits will be from government money

Ah, thanks for clearing that up Stebo

I don't see the placement as a problem, like you say it'll come later when the SP should be much higher anyway.

I wonder if there is some reluctance to invest by some based on the last RNS. "Costs within the Development Budget to be paid in KEFI shares" - that is a future placing to cover £10million.

After the last big placing near the end of last year the SP saw quite a drop before recovering, perhaps some are anticipating the placing soon to open up an opportunity to get in at a better price

Though according to SP Angel's report yesterday "$10m covering 2y development costs to be settled in KEFI shares at the then market price when applicable costs fall due " - So seems this placing isn't going to happen until that £10 million is required, which might be in 12 months or more, and the placing will apparently be at market price, so shouldn't cause too much of a drop

I also wonder where the change has come in with this - December 22nd RNS said £30 million of equity ranking gold streams (I presume these are royalties?) - And Jeremy had previously said he'd be open to £30m, though Chancery has only committed to £20m and currently pending we have £20m in further royalties + £10m share placing

I wonder if the £10m difference from Chancery is now part of the £20m from another royalty, or has Harry decided to issue new shares rather than give up more royalties?