Member Info for ANGINA

dreamt last night - nought much to write home about here.
A 17p dividend won't change my lifestyle.
Guess we can dump Miss Wood, our World Class Legal Beaver, not much for her to do hereabouts.
Why was she taken on board at all, I still wonder ?
Hope we get some answers to the obvious questions which need to be asked.............

Bdog: wonder if the new FDP is to open up the as yet (as far as we know) unquantified triassic reservoir.
Wasn't there recent talk of the workover rig returning to do some appraisal drilling down into it ?
It could well be a monster lurking under the radar so to speak.
GKP is (stubornely) sitting on our undeployed cash at bank for some damned good reason, and this could be it.
Tomorrow will either be a seriously damp squib, or profound.
Oh, I can't explain why AF sold out - maybe they had just met their profit target and moved on.

My tuppenceworth for tomorrow:
(i) A revision to the VCP (upwards probably)
(ii) A token award of a small dividend to us long suffering PIs (to help us swallow item (i)
(iii) More reason why the ramp-up to 55k/day has again slipped.
... But I really hope I'm wrong.
Now where's that tooth fairly when you need her ?

GKP receives approx $20M/month for selling around 30kbbls/day.
$5M is deb repay (I hope !), lifting cost and transport wipe out another $5M/month ..... so revenue is arounf $10/bbl.
Our PSC share is 80% of an 800Mbbls 2P = 0.8 X 800M or 640Mbbl recoverable in the reservoir.
So what's Shaikan currently worth to a buyer (or GKP) ? 640Mbbls X $10/bbl X 0.837 $ ->£ (I think I used).
Anyway - came to around £23.40/share. Which is a credible starting point compared to some of the fantasy figures being banded around.
Did this in the back of a chopper, and we can go on picking nitts and ruffling feathers 'til the camerls come home, but I'm a bit busy right now, conference time in Houston looming.....
Did you think the number should be bigger ?

Icold read what I wrote: 2P relates to £23.40/share. A buyer has to decide what % of that they would pay to hold the PSC. Is it worth 50%=£11.70 ? 25%=£5.85...... The market will use the traditional 10% lookahead valuation of a going concern - which sets our SP at around 230p (which is what it hovers around). Coincidence ? Nope.
We would gladly pay GKP that / share.
Thinks get a bit more difficult from there however: GKP is self-financing to 55k/day, the fracture porosity is rumoured to be exceptional, there is at least one further strata under Shaikan, the POO will probably rise, transport costs are falling due to pipelines, workover project is about to produce results, heavy oil is in increasing demand, geop's and payments are currently resolved, company is essentially debt free.......
A revised CPR has probably been done.
Well data is now considerable (the field is not decaying appreciably).
How much would/has any competitor bid ?
It becomes a risk/revenue driven calculation with a basket of variables, and we don't hold all the current facts.
So no, based on what we do know - 2P is worth at least £23.40/share, but nobody will be kicking things off at anywhere near that or there is nothing in it for them.
Those who work with these things usually get the basics about rigth y'know.
And your contribution is ?

'SOLD' hype and our pps of £100 has evaporated (for today at least).
What are we worth ?
A buyer would look basically at our PSC, revenue, 2P reserves and how much of it they could earn:
I make that = £23.40/share.
Any additional potential earnings will be balanced against the risk of achieving them. (which they will prudently kick-off at zero in initial negotiations).
Let's not count the 13Bbbl reservoir in full, $100/bbl, and recovery rates from fantasy fractures. (and neither would they as a first pass.....)

The question then is - how much of that would a buyer give to take us out (assuming teh MNR cohorts don't want a huge slice) ? 50%, 25%...... ?

The best news I can expect from 28Mar broadcast start off with:
1) A dividend - (due to our embarassingly mounting cash pile)
2) News of a farm in/out (as nobody appears to want us outright, and we appear impotent to move forward on fast-track).
Anything further will be a pleasant surprise.

"SOLD" RNS.
Maybe tomorrow......

For an eyewatering pps by Tues - if the rumourmongers have got it right for once.
I'm still seriously concerned that our hallowed BoD will do their damnest to avoid a sale, to downrate our asset and delay progress towards any increase in production.
Why ? - well would you do anything to promote a sale if you were in line for your multiple annual slices of your self awarded VCP jackpot ?
That would be a NO I guess.

Maxi - hope we are sold at a realistc valuation before they even get to 55k.
Life is too short ;)

JF has found his tongue (or the Puppet Master has loosened his strangle hold).
Something fundamental has changed to allow this release of hitherto "none of your business" information about our company.
Are we sold ?
For how much ??

Yes. Seem to think that if you convert the CPR bbls into a $ value from our income among our 239M shares you magically get the sale price per share. If only that were true.

I guess none of us are selling - awaiting the coming meganews.
So who IS selling and taking losses before the rocket takes off ?

Deep down I know youre right.
But with 6 fig. losses on a 7 fig play, maybe best to hang on til the end. Eh ?
Now where did I leave my nitro-glyce tabs .......

Agreed Straycat - I feel sick each time I think about it.
Like taking candy from a baby...... our investment destroyed and then nest feathering to add insult to serious injury.

As previously mentioned - strongly suspect it was as a reward for not contesting the Bond Holders takover of GKP.
Nobody apears to care.
Water under the GKP bridge.

Always stuck in my throat that a company who had just wiped out it's trusting PIs had the audacity to award themselves a Value Creation Plan, a Staff Retention Plan and a Cash Bonus Plan in the same breath.

At least our 100:1 losses have created several BoD £ Millionaires.

All this for just keeping quiet, and releasing nothing which would lead to stimulating the SP.

Wonder if we are sold ?
If so, maybe the first we hear of it will be a leak over what the BoD have awarded themselves for selling us ??
Did JF bother to provoke a bidding war - or was it a fire sale performed behind a smokescreen ???

BB I hold high hopes that ICG Baghdad will be more pragmatic in their dealings with IOCs - in the knowledge that attracting further inward investment by honouring international contracts and making timely decisions to allow growth to proceed are the keys to mutual prosperity.
The decade of weary dealings under the KRG /MNR where Tribal squabbles over the spoils appeared more important than getting anything decided have lead to where we are now. I recall JF's comment that getting anything meaningfull agreed 'was like performing a dance'.
Revised PSC ? I'm not holding my breath until someone convinces me that the ICG are deciding the next walz.

BB is probably correct - enforcement of any debt they run up and the duration of it will be above the law.
But then again isn't there probably a clause in some dubious contract between IOCs operating with the
KRG/MNR covering debt and terms for repayment ? Probably written in sand unless of course we owed them money.
Maybe JF should set GKP's legal whizzkid onto the case as she appears to be doing not a lot to justify her place at our overflowing trough ?

If I understand the layout - does that mean we are back to trucking for a couple of weeks then ?

Spud was targetted at Mar19 as far as I recall too opul.
Interesting fact was that it was awarded to "The Great Wall Drilling Company"
Can we draw any conclusions from THAT ?

Please re-invent yourself Trev - you obviously post items wjhich are close enough to the truth to upset the controllers of this repository.
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