Member Info for Andii

Resigned from Shuka

Stepped down as exec director at Unicorn

Taking a back seat at Neo due to being a related party

Resigned from Imara gold

Now the focus its all on Marula

https://x.com/i/status/2034871526567391660

It will be supplying premium titanium as rutile into a market which is seeing supply drop by 7% a year and demand increase 3% per year. You also have Empire metals EEE which will come online in maybe 3-5 years which has a much larger higher grade titanium resource but which requires more chemical processing. And as for the graphite, that is a huge market with a lot of use cases so bringing on extra supply whilst demand is growing is not IMO going to destroy the market, more like supply the expected deficit with great margins whilst other more marginal projects get funded.

I see projects of these sizes and consistency more as base-load suppliers but the numbers still show deficits in both titanium and graphite supply going forwards so expecting some nice upside to the commodity basket price. And we havent even touched on the rare earths byproduct which can be produced from the already processed tailings.

This was a better interview on the sunday roast a month ago

https://youtu.be/jqRYNZW0Kec?si=MtwrrenmGeFuC9V_

And here is the CEO discussing how the project will be the world's largest producer of natural flake graphite and one of the cheapest to produce at a cost of $250/t delivered to the ship vs $1400 average sales price

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/sovereign-metals-ceo-discusses-mou-092531896.html

Titanium MRE upgraded by 32%

Measured, Indicated and Inferred now 3.428B tonns @ 1.39% rutile eq. Rutile ore sells at $1,400/t so thats $66b in-situ resource. And supply is falling by 7% per year with demand increasing 3%

And this is just the area they have drilled, excluding the rare earth byproducts

From the web

"a general industry rule of thumb is that companies at the DFS or Feasibility stage trade between 5% and 10% of their in-situ resource value (total value of metal in the ground)."

That should make SVML worth £2.3 to £4.8b right now

Bringing this to the top again

https://thatstocksguy.substack.com/p/sovereign-metals

Also Rick Rule owns Sovereign, and sees a potential 25x upside

Discussed from 44min30

https://www.youtube.com/live/1VPiSWtWSYU?si=PjU-O47yXMFzEIVu

Notably this interview was 5 days before the rare earths discovery was first announced

56% manganese ore must be worth a decent premium to the 35% to 40% high grade ore Baosteel have agreed to take.

35% manganese is worth around $5/DMTU = $175/T

56% manganese could be worth well over $7/DMTU. @ $7 that = $392/T

Not saying the entire Run of Mill ore is going to come out at 56% but if just 5000T a month can, thats $4m a month revenue and 100% to Marula with the remaining 5000T ballance of 35 to 40% being worth around $2m a month.

And thats not including any further sales to the Indian steel company Jindal. Hopefully the steel plant they are building in Oman is still on track..

Quoting the market cap wrong near the start wasnt great I felt! Also no emphasis on rutile being the premium form of titanium, or the fact that the graphite is effectively a free add on so having almost no mining and very little processing costs. Also, it was stated that the rehabilitated land produces a yield 2x to 3x better than previously, when the RNS states 5x and up to 10x yield improvement.

I liked the conversation about the inital NPV figure being immaterial when the life of mine could be over 100 years

$8m copper prepayment credit facility, hoping to be enlarged and extended to other projects

£2.5m GMI unsecured loan (£1.7m already drawn down)

$2m bridging facility ($750k drawn down)

£25m ATM facility (requires us to be trading)

€6m non recourse loan

$25m sovereign wealth funding

$2.25m manganese prepayment

Obviously all of the above aren't guaranteed, but proves management have been busy trying to sort out funding

Https://youtu.be/X4rfbcZYix0?si=CUFU905UdrG7VHY1

$9m operating loss for the year. $33m cash available end of december. DFS due next few months, offtake agreement in place for part of the graphite.

Not too bad, at least they are doing ok financially. Looks like nearer june time for DFS but should see a few updates along the way most exciting being any advances with REE metallurgy, offtakes or resource upgrade

Kaysia graphite cheaper to produce than China

https://x.com/i/status/2027345710698406377

Great reply my sea fearing friend, and don't worry - i'm instinctively a mennace! (I'm from the same town as Dennis the mennace, DC Thompson Co. Dundee)

Should your eyes stray further than Cobra at some time or another in the future, could I suggest you take a look at power metallic PNPN > claiming to have potentially a trillion$ pollymetalic resource, and they use a nice new tech called muon imagery which might take off in a few years as it allows ones geologists to map the density similar to xray

I think this may have been the interview that got Charles Archer extra excited

https://youtu.be/EBrxF05Wi-E?si=B5cicmCgXvcZjQyh

From the hot copper board;

"Since infrastructure and mining costs are already covered by rutile and graphite, the Monazite concentrate is a result of almost pure profit. Ghai spoke of an "enormous strengthening of economic efficiency" as this opens up a third, independent source of income.The US has a massive interest in the heavy rare earths (DyTb and Yttrium) found in Kasiya, as China has a quasi-monopoly here. Ghai hinted that this discovery has made the project "systemically relevant" to Western governments, paving the way for government funding and guarantees.Rio Tinto is deeply involved in the optimization of DFS (feasibility study). The shift of the DFS to Q1 2026 was strategic to integrate the new discoveries (such as rare earths) and optimized plant designs. He stressed that a "bankable" (fundable) project will be presented at a world-class level.Graphite:With production costs of around 241 USD/t, Sovereign Metals can undercut even the cheapest producers in China. In a world thirsting for "ex-China" graphite, this is the ultimate competitive advantage.The project is designed for generations. The rare earths are not a small "spot find," but run through the entire deposit. This gives long-term investors the assurance that a new global commodity hub will be created here"

Hi. Thanks for the reply, gives me some things to think about and questions I will ask over on hotcopper about the uranium and thorium.

I was in and out of Cobra a few years ago and missed the rise from 1.5p to 4.5p pre met studies which I did read but missed the significance. I will research further and check that I am getting the RNS emails this weekend.

The invite to discuss on svml board was just incase you were interested and you could have talked about Cobra to maybe guide others to come do some DD here. I'm interested in SVML not primarily for the REE, but for the titanium and graphite product already tested at optimised pfs level to lowest of quartile cost, along with having Sprot as a large investor and Rio as a partner.

Hi shipwreck, would you be willing to come over to the svml board to discuss?

You concluded your message with this;

"SVML has a great rutile project, but monetizing the monazite byproduct will require significant time, capital, and complex chemistry."

But SVML posted this in their RNS

"Monazite by-product has potential to add third revenue stream to Kasiya for near-zero incremental cost"

"The concentrate was recovered from material that would otherwise be discarded, i.e. the non-conductor tailings stream from electrostatic separation of a heavy mineral gravity concentrate of Kasiya ore. Producing a monazite concentrate would therefore require no additional complex processing. "

How many ktpa monazite can SVML produce?

https://mobidrive.com/sharelink/p/3rOAlTRnizcTnUp3YCawr26s1GWgP52MRH4JWFt6wE56

"Conservatively, we think every 5ktpa of monazite could equate to ~US$30-40m/year of revenue and US$25-35m/year of cash flow, with more details on volumes to come with more study on monazite distribution, mineralogy and metallurgical optimization, but we think this could be a material addition to NPV, and especially IRR given the high cash margins for monazite and low capex. For Base Resources, albeit it was a deposit with high monazite content, adding a monazite recovery stream added US$7.0bn of revenue and US$4.7bn of LOM FCF in the 2023 monazite PFS, and transformed project economics (post-tax NPV10% doubled to US$2.0bn"

Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SVML/strategic-heavy-rare-earths-recovered-at-kasiya-xjo9x2rwvllgiz7.html

Has anyone noticed there is quite a lot of detail on the REE's in the appendix section of the RNS?

We have the drill azamus data so we could plot where on the orebody map the two samples were taken

We have the REE assay results after processing (they are quite simmilar across the two drills which suggests orebody continuity)

We have the raw ppm data from the raw drill core assays, this could be used to work out a before and after concentration, for example if we know it takes 100t of ROM ore to produce 1t of rutile, and we know the initial % of REE vs the final processed % of REE, and we know that the HREE concentrates are worth $8500/t delivered to China, we could work out and calculate the theoretical in-situ value of the resource

Hi shipwrecksteve;

You posted the following message about SVML's recent announcement of HREE discovered in the tailings;

"Well, to be honest, that Sovereign RNS is nowhere near the quality of Cobra's deposit

SVML mention 21.8% NdPr, 2.9% DyTb, 11.9% Yttrium

Cobra latest optimized TREO is 32% NdPr, 5% DyTb, 23.8% Yttrium

We can throw around dozens of rare earths projects, but that composition of TREO is unique. And 2 years+ of metallurgical/flow sheet optimisation are in the bag, which SVML will need to do too if they want to be relevant, and on acid consumption needs/costs Cobra is by far the lowest (at least that I've come across). So there are no doubt many rare earths occurrences, there's also ones that will be viable, but that SVML RNS for now, without any metallurgy work where 90% of REE projects fall down, that's nothing more than smoke and mirrors and even if that turns out to work for them, they're 2 years behind on a project with worse metrics."

Now humour me for a minute. We have various pieces of data from SVML's RNS,

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SVML/strategic-heavy-rare-earths-recovered-at-kasiya-xjo9x2rwvllgiz7.html

1) we have the pirce of monzite concentrate delivered to China, $8500/t. Do you know roughly what the value of your concentrate would be in comparison? I believe the concentrate at SVML's project came from the tailings, it has already been mined and processed and is simply a byproduct which can be collected and sold. My question is, what is the value of SVML's concentrate and how much of it is produced per ton of rutile produced. SVML's latest optimised feasability studies have a target production volume of 250,000t of 99% titanium oxide (rutile) which sells for $2000/t, with graphite as a byproduct. If they can sell 25,000t of HREE concentrates at $8500/t thats an extra $212m a year revenue at almost zero Opex apart from transportation. That could add $1b NPV to a 10 year project, $2.5b to a 25 year project

2) the RNS includes the results from two drill cores with the azimuths, so it could be logically plotted how far apart they are. The grades from both drills are also stated and they are very simmilar, suggesting the dispersion is uniform. This is a massive bonus as it means there is consistency and the process and mining doesnt need much adjustment across the ore body

3) those results of HREE which you compared, SVML and Cobra, SVML did not require any advanced met processing as it is a byproduct collected from the existing rutile production. All they need to do is carry out their existing rutile met testing of multiple drill core samplea, and assay the results. Job done. They have Rio tinto as a partner so this should be relatively easy

4) The original drill sample assay results are available in the appendix with values in ppm. It would be relatively easy to take the % HREE figures from before processing vs after processing, compare them to the volume of ROM material and predict an in-si

Not expecting first sales until plant is built so sometime after 2029. Expect more offtake agreements, mineral resource upgrades, finance agreements and improvements to NPV from updated feasability studies before then.

The CEO has told us that Sovereign will not build the mine alone so expect either RIO to commit as an operational partner, RIO to put in an offer for the whole company, or RIO to exit and SVML enter into a JV with a partner who can help build and finance the mine