RE: New video with CCW23 Nov 2025 14:20
I think the author of that youtube video has made a few errors. Here is a link again to the video plus screenshots viewable in the following tweet.
https://youtu.be/qlDThxDt5aM?si=rFGsb2tZkklFS4ib
https://x.com/AndrewMathieso3/status/1992592371041833361?t=gK9uHPG6fCJKV31gT6zXxg&s=19
Now this statement was made by ONDO back in February
"Trading EBITDA positively on a run rate basis remains on track to be delivered by the year ending 31 March 2026."
Maybe they will now not achieve the above, Dowgate seems to think minus £3.7m ebitda end of FY march 26 and break even end of FY to march 27. Ebitda positive on a runrate basis suggests ebitda positive after end of march 26 which wouldnt take much to achieve, and with warrant cash and existing cash pile plus accelerating high margin US rollout, I am personally bullish short and long term.
Other mistakes/oversights made by the author IMO
1) states that Ondo not economically viable to work in UK and Nordics due to lower average insurance cost of £300 in UK. It can work tho because the insurance companies are only rolling out to High Net Worth policy holders where the insurance cost will be multiples of £300/year. Also, UK is a small geography (england), so only a handful of plumbers are needed. Also, in the Nordics, to date I believe the devices have not come with free plumber repairs and have been sold for a higher initial price to cover the manufacturing cost and a profit margin.
2) Doesn't believe 54 staff as of march 2025 is enough to include plumbers in the US. This has to be considered along side the investor meets company question answered about number of devices covered by each plumber. 3 to 5k year 1 and 8 to 10k year 2. By year 2 the existing plumbers can handle a lot more new and existing devices.
3) from 19 minutes, the author casts doubts about the US model. The cost per leakbot in the US is $30 per device hardware and shipping cost, $45 repair cost year 1, $23 Yr 2, $23 yr 3, $20 Yr 4, $18 Yr 5. (Yr 6 onwards not mentioned)
Now this is key. Does the insurer pay upfront cost ($30) plus a subscription of $60/ device per year once shipped and installed?. If so, thats a pre tax profit to Ondo per new device of $15 in year 1, $37 year 2, $40 year 3 excluding admin costs.
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